Michigan looks for its fourth straight win as it travels across the country to take on Washington.
Michigan (4-1) held on to beat Minnesota 27-24 last week. The Wolverines are surely not at the level they were last season, and it's been a bit strange watching their offense be so one-dimensional. The defense has stepped up when the offense has struggled and will need to be at their best against a good Washington offense.
Washington (3-2) isn't off to the best start this season, losing to both Washington State and Rutgers. The Huskies were really unlucky to lose both of those games and even though they are in a year zero situation, their numbers are actually quite impressive, which is why they are favored in this game.
So, let's get to my Michigan vs Washington predictions.
Michigan vs Washington Prediction
My best bet for Washington vs. Michigan is to back Washington on the moneyline. Yes, I'm backing the Huskies on Saturday.
Michigan vs Washington Odds
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 / -110 | +110 |
| Washington Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 / -110 | -130 |
- Michigan vs Washington Point Spread: Michigan +2.5 (-110) · Washington -2.5 (-110)
- Michigan vs Washington Total: Over/Under 41.5
- Michigan vs Washington Moneyline: Michigan +110 · Washington -130
Michigan vs Washington Preview
Michigan Wolverines Betting Preview: Offense Needs To Step Up
Everyone in the world knows Michigan can't throw the ball with Alex Orji at quarterback, but even with that being the case, Michigan's offensive numbers haven't been bad.
The Wolverines are averaging 5.1 yards per carry and rank 52nd in Rush Success Rate. However, what happens when they fall behind in a game with Orji as the quarterback? That happened against Texas, and they couldn't even sniff making a comeback. They fell behind USC and broke off one big run that won them the game. What if Washington goes up two touchdowns and they don't have the Big House crowd behind them and can't throw the ball?
Donovan Edwards actually hasn't been running the ball that effectively, averaging only 4.4 yards per carry, so instead it's been the Kalel Mullings show. He's averaging a whopping seven yards per carry with 11 of his 70 runs going over 10 yards. He will need to have to have a huge game if Michigan is going to go into Husky Stadium and win.
The Michigan defense has been pressured in these big games, with the offense consistently going three and out. The metrics against the run have been good, but in their three biggest games — against USC, Minnesota and Texas — all three teams had a positive EPA on the ground. You could also make the case that Jonah Coleman will be the best running back Michigan has faced this season.
The secondary has a lot of talent, but late in games against USC and Minnesota, the quarterbacks moved the ball on that unit. Michigan allowed a pretty substantial positive EPA in the fourth quarter of both games, which is a concern moving forward.
Washington Huskies Betting Preview: Coleman Carrying the Load
Jedd Fisch proved at Arizona that he is one of the best offensive minds in college football and nothing has changed since he arrived at Washington. The record might not show it, but Washington has been moving the ball really effectively, ranking 13th in EPA per Play.
Will Rogers set some SEC records in Mississippi State's Air Raid offense earlier in his career, but now he's playing in a more pro-style offense. He's no longer being asked to throw the ball 40 or 50 times in a game, which suits him well. So far this season, he has an 84.3 PFF Passing grade, is averaging 9.0 yards per attempt and has 10 touchdown passes compared to zero interceptions. Because of his great play, Washington ranks 12th nationally in EPA per Pass and ninth in Pass Success Rate.
He doesn't have to throw a bunch anymore because Washington has an elite running back in Coleman. The Huskies are fourth in rushing success rate because Coleman is averaging a whopping 7.2 yards per carry.
He's one of college football's most difficult running backs to bring down, averaging 5.69 yards per carry after contact. Not only is he tough to bring down, but the offensive line has been doing a great job at opening up running lanes and ranks fifth in offensive line yards.
Steve Belichick's defense has been great this season because it emphasizes fundamentals. Washington has the nation's fifth-best PFF Tackling grade and doesn't consistently allow teams to break off big plays. Because of that, the Huskies rank second nationally in EPA per Play allowed, so they should be able to shut down Michigan's one-dimensional offense.
Michigan vs Washington
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Michigan and Washington match up statistically:
Michigan Offense vs. Washington Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 52 | 48 |  |
| Line Yards | 52 | 66 | |
| Pass Success | 107 | 1 | |
| Havoc | 87 | 45 | |
| Finishing Drives | 47 | 21 | |
| Quality Drives | 111 | 23 | |
Washington Offense vs. Michigan Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 4 | 10 | |
| Line Yards | 5 | 16 | |
| Pass Success | 9 | 55 | |
| Havoc | 32 | 38 | |
| Finishing Drives | 109 | 73 | |
| Quality Drives | 46 | 54 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 20 | 5 |
| PFF Coverage | 23 | 21 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 4 | 130 |
| Middle 8 | 68 | 56 |
| Seconds per Play | 32.1 (132) | 28.5 (90) |
| Rush Rate | 64% (20) | 50% (91) |
Michigan vs Washington Pick & Prediction
The Huskies' offense has been good at moving the ball down the field but struggles when it gets into scoring range. Ranking 109th in Finishing Drives is definitely a concern, but Fisch is one of the best offensive minds in college football, so I trust him to figure out the red-zone scoring.
Michigan isn't going to be able to throw the ball against the best secondary in the country in terms of Pass Success Rate allowed. So, I think it will be a big struggle having to run against eight or nine guys in the box.
Rogers will be the key in this game. Washington will win if he can throw on Michigan's secondary and open up the run game for Coleman.
Michigan has had the benefit of playing its first five games at the Big House, one of the best home-field advantages in college football. I don't think the Wolverines will fare very well with their offense away from home, so I like the value on Washington's moneyline at -130 and would play it up to -150.
Pick: Washington Moneyline (-130, DraftKings) | Play to ML (-150)
How to Watch Michigan vs Washington Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Husky Stadium |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 5 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | NBC |
Michigan vs Washington Betting Trends
- Michigan is 4-1 SU but 1-4 ATS
- Michigan games are 3-2 to the Over
- Washington is 3-2 SU but 2-3 ATS
- Washington games are 5-0 to the Under
Michigan vs Washington Weather
