We head to The Big House, where the Michigan Wolverines host the Minnesota Golden Gophers for a Noon ET kickoff.
Minnesota is coming off an unsuccessful battle for the Floyd of Rosedale against Iowa, which they lost 31-14. The Gophers are in a weird position, having lost to UNC and Iowa, but they shut out both Rhode Island and Nevada between those games.
Michigan is still learning about itself as the season progresses, as it’s undergone a lot of turnover. The defending National Champs are coming off a 27-24 victory in a slugfest against USC and haven't had a comfortable win all season.
Where does the betting value lie? Read more about my Minnesota vs Michigan prediction.
Minnesota vs Michigan Prediction
- Minnesota vs Michigan Picks: Michigan -9.5
My Minnesota vs Michigan best bet is on the Wolverines to cover, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
- Minnesota vs Michigan Picks: Michigan -9.5
Minnesota vs Michigan Odds
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -115 | 35.5 -110o / -110u | +275 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -105 | 35.5 -110o / -110u | -350 |
- Minnesota vs Michigan Point Spread: Minnesota +9.5 (-115) · Michigan -9.5 (-105)
- Minnesota vs Michigan Total: Over/Under 35.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Minnesota vs Michigan Moneyline: Minnesota +275 · Michigan -350
Minnesota vs Michigan Preview
Minnesota Golden Gophers Betting Preview: Digging Their Own Hole
We’re close to reaching the end of the PJ Fleck era in Minnesota. After the Iowa game, Fleck seemed confused, and it was hard to overlook his genius statement on a Monday morning radio show:
“Winning comes down to winning football games."
What a novel concept!
I know it seems like I’m ragging on him, but this is a talented football team, and it shouldn’t reek of mediocrity.
The pass defense is exceptional, ranking third nationally in Passing Downs Success Rate allowed, fifth in PPA allowed, and 13th in Passing Play Success Rate allowed. Minnesota’s run defense does have a lot of work to do against premier teams, though – Omarion Hampton rushed for 134 yards in Week 1, and Kaleb Johnson ran for an astounding 206 yards last week.
The quarterback play has been fine for the most part. I think Max Brosmer is a decent player, completing nearly 66% of his passes, but he has struggled with turnovers, throwing three interceptions in the past two games.
Don’t expect big plays from this program, though, as the Gophers are ranked 120th in Explosiveness and a 71st-best passing down team.
Running back Darius Taylor is providing really solid play — he seems to be the only one offering consistent play. He’s been running the ball with power, averaging 6.3 yards per carry and three trips to the endzone. He and Marcus Major have helped the Gophers achieve the 39th-most successful run game.
Michigan Wolverines Betting Preview: Rabid Rushers
Perhaps the Wolverines found their answer at quarterback? I have no idea. What we have gleaned, though, is that Alex Orji elevates the team’s ceiling over Davis Warren.
Orji’s ability to improvise and run the ball adds another layer to Michigan’s offense, and I’ve always seen the Wolverines as a run-first team. You’ll never get incredible accuracy from Orji, as he completes passes at a 55% rate, but he has top speed and is a freakish athlete.
Alluding to the run game, it’s hard to ignore the work of Kalel Mullings. It seemed like Donovan Edwards would be the bell-cow back, but after two consecutive 150+ yard rushing efforts from Mullings, he’s “the guy” until further notice.
I only expect the run game to improve. The Wolverines rank 33rd in Rush Success Rate, but I can see them improving. Mullings has separated himself from Edwards, but I’m sure Edwards will also see the field.
Perhaps Orji has a good game throwing the ball, but I wouldn’t bank on it this week. Not only has no Michigan receiver separated itself from the pack, but Minnesota does a solid job at preventing aerial plays. A lot of this Michigan attack will be from the ground.
The defensive side of the ball is where I’m most concerned about for the Wolverines. They’ll be fine stopping the run (15th in Rush Defense Success Rate allowed, 12th in Rush PPA allowed), but opposing quarterbacks have had their way with them.
Fresno State, Texas and USC all had exceptional games throwing the ball because no one wants to run through the Michigan frontline.
Minnesota vs Michigan
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Minnesota and Michigan match up statistically:
Minnesota Offense vs. Michigan Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 55 | 6 | |
| Line Yards | 101 | 17 | |
| Pass Success | 33 | 55 | |
| Havoc | 48 | 51 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 71 | 63 | |
| Quality Drives | 61 | 56 | |
Michigan Offense vs. Minnesota Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 46 | 46 | |
| Line Yards | 30 | 62 | |
| Pass Success | 110 | 3 | |
| Havoc | 86 | 33 | |
| Finishing Drives | 60 | 39 | |
| Quality Drives | 104 | 29 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 76 | 19 |
| PFF Coverage | 32 | 32 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 112 | 2 |
| Middle 8 | 20 | 78 |
| Seconds per Play | 31.5 (127) | 32.0 (129) |
| Rush Rate | 51% (94) | 62% (26) |
Minnesota vs Michigan Pick & Prediction
I think Michigan is a little overrated this year just because it's the champs, but it’s going against a program that has given up on its coach.
Regardless, I think both teams are flawed. Minnesota can’t defend the run, while Michigan can’t defend the pass. Which team's weakness is weaker? I think it’s the Gophers.
Michigan is 9.5 favorites, and I gladly take that number since the game is in Ann Arbor.
The Wolverines’ run game is elite. Given what they did against USC, who’s 16th at stopping the run, I’ll be stunned if I don’t see another 100-yard rushing game from either Edwards or Mullings.
Back the maize and blue in this afternoon matchup.
Pick: Michigan -9.5 (-105, BetMGM)
How to Watch Minnesota vs Michigan Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 28 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FOX |
Minnesota vs Michigan Betting Trends
- 66% of the bets and 93% of the money is aimed for Michigan to cover
- 50% of the bets and 50% of the money is targeted for the Over
- Michigan ML is getting 76% of the bets and 95% of the money
