With all the storylines in the new Big Ten this season, Minnesota is flying under the radar despite building a successful 6-3 campaign. The Golden Gophers have won their last four games and are now playing excellent football.
Rutgers is headed in the opposite direction. The Scarlet Knights came into this season with high expectations as a sleeper in their fifth season under Greg Schiano. They got off to a great start with four wins in a row but have since slid to four consecutive losses.
Injuries have really hurt the Scarlet Knights, but they finally had a bye week to try and get healthy. Was the time off enough to stop the bleeding?
Minnesota is a 6-point favorite on the spread with a 46.5-point over/under. The game kicks off at 12 p.m. ET on Saturday, Nov. 9, and can be streamed live on NBC.
Read on for our Minnesota vs Rutgers predictions and college football picks for their NCAAF Week 11 game.
Minnesota vs Rutgers Betting Odds
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 46.5 -105o / -115u | -225 |
| Rutgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 46.5 -112o / -108u | +190 |
- Minnesota vs Rutgers Point Spread: Minnesota -6 (-110) · Rutgers +6 (-110)
- Minnesota vs Rutgers Total: Over/Under 46.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Minnesota vs Rutgers Moneyline: Minnesota -225 · Rutgers +190
Minnesota vs Rutgers Picks and Predictions
Prediction
My Minnesota vs Rutgers best bet is on the Gophers to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at ESPN Bet, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Moneyline
PASS
Against the Spread
Minnesota vs Rutgers Pick: Minnesota -6 (Play to -7)
Over/Under
PASS
Minnesota vs Rutgers Betting Preview
Minnesota's Winning Probability: Brosmer Leading the Charge
Minnesota decided to move on from quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis (more on him later) and brought in graduate transfer Max Brosmer after five years at New Hampshire. It took him a few games to acclimate, but Brosmer has taken off. He has 13 touchdowns and just four interceptions on the season, and, in the past three games, has tossed seven scores with no picks.
We think of the Gophers as a run-first offense, but that has not happened this season. After averaging over 40 rushing attempts per game in each of the first six years under P.J. Fleck, Minnesota averaged 38.9 rushes per game last season, and that number has dropped to 30.4 this season.
Darius Taylor is still a talented back, averaging over 5.0 yards per carry and 80.5 yards per game, but this team is more balanced than in previous years. Passing has actually been its strength, as it ranks 22nd in Pass Success Rate.
Minnesota’s defense has been stout this season, especially against the pass. It ranks 25th in Pass Success Rate allowed and is 13th in PFF’s Coverage Grade. This unit has two terrific safeties, Koi Perich and Kerry Brown, and a pair of solid cornerbacks.
Rutgers' Winning Probability: Returning From A Much Needed Bye
I mentioned Minnesota moving on for Kaliakmanis — well, he found a home at Rutgers and will look to get revenge on his former team on Saturday. Kaliakmanis has thrown nine touchdowns with five interceptions and is completing just 54% of his passes. He has struggled recently, throwing just one touchdown in the past three games.
The Scarlet Knights also lack weapons at wide receiver. Their entire offense falls on the legs of star running back Kyle Monangai. The senior back is averaging 116.4 yards per game and has tallied 10 touchdowns on the year. Both rank second in the Big Ten.
Rutgers ranks 35th in the country in Rush Success Rate, but the problem is Monangai left the game early against USC with an injury, and his status for Saturday is unknown. The bye week came at a perfect time for Scarlet Knights, though, giving Monangai an extra week to get healthy.
The rest was also much needed for the Scarlet Knights' badly banged-up defense. Those injuries have shown on the field, as Rutgers has allowed 7.5 yards per play in the past three games.
Minnesota vs Rutgers Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Minnesota and Rutgers match up statistically:
Minnesota Offense vs. Rutgers Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 60 | 123 | |
| Line Yards | 106 | 95 | |
| Pass Success | 22 | 83 | |
| Havoc | 56 | 108 | |
| Finishing Drives | 25 | 80 | |
| Quality Drives | 36 | 45 | |
Rutgers Offense vs. Minnesota Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 35 | 41 | |
| Line Yards | 53 | 49 |  |
| Pass Success | 76 | 25 | |
| Havoc | 8 | 19 | |
| Finishing Drives | 92 | 33 | |
| Quality Drives | 69 | 29 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 71 | 64 |
| PFF Coverage | 13 | 78 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 93 | 107 |
| Middle 8 | 38 | 87 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.1 (124) | 27.0 (62) |
| Rush Rate | 49% (101) | 56% (45) |
Prediction for Minnesota vs Rutgers
Rutgers is reeling, and while the bye week might have been enough to get some pieces back, I’m not convinced that a week is all this team needs to turn their season around. Over the season's first four games, Rutgers allowed just 16.3 points per game. But in the last four games, this defense has given up 33.3 points per game.
Kaliakmanis has struggled with accuracy and has never been able to show that he is a special player. Minnesota has no problem letting him walk out the door, as they were confident that Brosmer was an upgrade, and it’s clear they were right.
It took him a few games to get comfortable at the FBS level, but Brosmer is now playing excellent football. This Minnesota offense has done a great job protecting the football and consistently moving the ball.
The defense is terrific against the pass, and if Monangai is anything less than 100%, the Scarlet Knights will struggle to score. I know the situation benefits Rutgers, but I will ride the hot hand with Minnesota.
Pick: Minnesota -6 (Play to -7)
Rutgers vs Minnesota Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | SHI Stadium, Piscataway, NJ |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 9 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | NBC |
Minnesota vs Rutgers will be played at SHI Stadium in Piscataway, New Jersey, on Saturday, Nov. 9 at 12 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on NBC.
