Saturday's Big Ten schedule comes to a close in Los Angeles when the UCLA Bruins host the Minnesota Golden Gophers for their first-ever West Coast conference game.
Minnesota rewrote its season by upsetting USC last weekend, and it now has an opportunity to get back above .500 for the first time this year. It will take a bit for UCLA to get back to .500, but can it earn its first Big Ten win with the Golden Gophers in town?
Minnesota vs UCLA Prediction
- Minnesota vs UCLA Pick: Minnesota (-3.5)
My Minnesota-UCLA best bet is on the Golden Gophers spread, with the best line currently available at ESPN BET, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Minnesota vs. UCLA Odds
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 40 -105o / -115u | -185 |
| UCLA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 40 -105o / -115u | +155 |
- Minnesota vs UCLA Point Spread: Minnesota -3.5 (-110) · UCLA +3.5 (-110)
- Minnesota vs UCLA Total: Over/Under 40 (-105o / -115u)
- Minnesota vs UCLA Moneyline: Minnesota -185 · UCLA +155
Minnesota vs UCLA Preview
Minnesota Golden Gophers Betting Preview: Bouncing Back in Big Ten Play
Things looked dire for P.J. Fleck and the Golden Gophers following their 31-14 loss to Iowa on Sept. 21. They were gashed by Kaleb Johnson for 206 yards and three scores, and it was their second home loss to Power Four competition.
But after a nice showing against Michigan on the road and a big win over USC last week, things are looking up for Minnesota.
The Gophers' offense has looked solid for two games in a row with two 24-point outings, and Darius Taylor has emerged as their top offensive threat.
New Hampshire transfer quarterback Max Brosmer has been decent for Minnesota with 1,263 yards, six touchdowns and four picks. He's not a game-changer by any means, but he operates the Golden Gophers' offense well and gives them a chance to win.
With Brosmer leading the way, Minnesota is 39th in Rushing Success Rate and 41st in Passing Success Rate.
The Golden Gophers are once again a stingy defensive team. Holding USC to 17 points is no small feat, and aside from giving up 31 points to Iowa, this defense has been impressive each week and pitched shutouts against Rhode Island and Nevada.
They are allowing just 15.7 points per game and are fifth in Passing Success Rate Allowed.
UCLA Bruins Betting Preview: A Rebuild in Pasadena
Sometimes, college football programs with low expectations surprise everyone with a decent season (last year's Northwestern team is a perfect example).
UCLA is not one of them.
A last-minute field goal against Hawai'i in Week 1 is the only thing separating the Bruins from an 0-5 record. Since then, they've lost every game by an average of 20.8 points, with their "closest" defeat being a 27-11 road loss to Penn State last weekend that was much less competitive than the final score indicates.
All of this is to say that UCLA is very bad, probably a bottom-five team in the Power Four.
Quarterback Chase Garbers has been ineffective, with three touchdown passes compared to six interceptions, and he likely won't be at full strength since he's dealing with an ankle injury that kept him out against Penn State last week.
Backup QB Justyn Martin led a touchdown drive against the Nittany Lions, but it was the typical garbage-time score, so you can't really take much from it.
For as bad as the Bruin passing game has been, their run game is arguably worse. UCLA is averaging just 2.7 yards per carry and only has one rushing touchdown this season. Tough to watch.
The Bruins are a ghastly 133rd in Rushing Success Rate and rank 113th or lower in four other key offensive metrics.
Penn State only scoring 27 points made UCLA's defense look fine, but this still isn't a good unit. It is giving up 30.0 points per game and is down at 116th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 129th in Quality Drives Allowed.
Minnesota vs UCLA Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Minnesota and UCLA match up statistically:
Minnesota Offense vs. UCLA Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 39 | 97 | |
| Line Yards | 100 | 52 | |
| Pass Success | 41 | 116 | |
| Havoc | 60 | 85 | |
| Finishing Drives | 59 | 112 | |
| Quality Drives | 60 | 129 | |
UCLA Offense vs. Minnesota Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 133 | 73 | |
| Line Yards | 130 | 69 | |
| Pass Success | 118 | 5 | |
| Havoc | 113 | 31 | |
| Finishing Drives | 125 | 43 | |
| Quality Drives | 64 | 33 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 105 | 57 |
| PFF Coverage | 25 | 107 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 108 | 65 |
| Middle 8 | 42 | 54 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.9 (120) | 31.2 (131) |
| Rush Rate | 51% (88) | 44% (128) |
Minnesota vs UCLA Pick & Prediction
Minnesota is a flawed team, but I can't pass up this opportunity to fade UCLA.
At least the Golden Gophers have an offensive identity and some clear strengths. Do the Bruins have any strengths?
Look for Minnesota to lean on the run game and shut down UCLA's offense. Go with the Golden Gophers to win and cover in their trip to L.A.
Pick: Minnesota -3.5 (Play to -4)
Minnesota vs UCLA Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 12 |
| Kickoff Time: | 9 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Big Ten Network |
