The Alabama Crimson Tide (5-2, 2-2 SEC) look to rebound from their loss to Tennessee when they host the Missouri Tigers (6-1, 2-1) at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 26 at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+.
Missouri survived a potential upset last Saturday by scoring a late touchdown in a 21-17 win over Auburn. However, it may have come with a price, because star quarterback Brady Cook is now in serious doubt to play in this game.
This is the Tigers' toughest game left on the schedule, so if they can somehow pull off an upset, they would give themselves a great opportunity to potentially make the SEC Championship game or the College Football Playoff.
No two ways about it, Alabama has to win out if it wants any shot at making the College Football Playoff. It was a poor performance against Tennessee, especially for a defense that's looked worse and worse each and every week.
The Crimson Tide will likely get the benefit of playing against a backup quarterback, but they really need to have a good performance and get some confidence under their belts.
The Tide are favored by 16.5 points on the spread with a total that checks in at 51.
Here's my Missouri vs. Alabama predictions and my college football picks for Saturday.
Missouri vs. Alabama Odds, Betting Line, Spread
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+15.5 -104 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | +580 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-15.5 -118 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | -880 |
- Missouri vs. Alabama Spread: Alabama -15.5
- Missouri vs. Alabama Over/Under: 50.5 Total Points
- Missouri vs. Alabama Moneyline: Alabama -880, Missouri +580
Missouri Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Prediction
- Missouri vs. Alabama Pick: Alabama -16.5
Spread
I'm targeting the Crimson Tide on the spread. With Missouri showing weaknesses, I see a blowout win for Alabama.
Total
I'm not looking at the over/under in this matchup, as my best bet is on the spread at -16.5.
Moneyline
There is no value on the moneyline with the spread up to -16.5 in favor of the Tide.
Pick
My Missouri vs Alabama best bet is on the Crimson Tide spread, with the best line currently available at BetRivers, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Missouri Tigers Preview
At the time of writing this, Cook is listed as doubtful to play against Alabama, which is a massive blow for the Tigers.
Here's Missouri's full SEC injury report. QB Brady Cook, TB Nate Noel and WR Mookie Cooper are all doubtful. pic.twitter.com/IQGH55FzK2
— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) October 24, 2024
With Cook doubtful, that means former Notre Dame and Arizona State quarterback Drew Pyne could get the start. Pyne came into the game against Auburn this past weekend and ended up going 10-for-22 for 78 yards.
In Pyne's lone season as a starter for Notre Dame, he actually wasn't that bad. He averaged eight yards per attempt and had 22 touchdown passes compared to only six interceptions.
He does have a big arm and can beat teams over the top, but doing it on the road at Alabama without a lot of your skill players around you is another thing.
Not only is Cook doubtful for this game, but Missouri's star running back — Nate Noel — is also most likely not going to play. Noel has been amazing this season, averaging 5.9 yards per attempt, while backup Marcus Carroll hasn't come close to that level of production.
For Missouri to win this game, its defense is going to have to come up huge. The Tigers have been very good this season, especially against the run. Missouri is only allowing 3.8 yards per carry and ranks inside the top 20 in both Defensive Line Yards and Rushing Success Rate allowed.
With that being said, the Tigers have played a pretty soft schedule. In their biggest game of the season against Texas A&M, they let Aggies run wild for 236 yards and 6.6 yards per carry, so who says Alabama doesn't do the exact same thing?
Missouri's secondary has been average at best. In that game against Texas A&M, the Aggies only had to attempt 22 passes, but averaged 12.5 yards per attempt.
With the soft schedule they've played so far, the Tigers are only 59th in terms of a PFF Passing Grade.
And as you can see by the injury report above, they could be down four safeties, with two of them having played over 200 coverage snaps this season.
Alabama Crimson Tide Preview
The biggest problem for Alabama has been its defense. Tennessee put up over 400 yards off offense against them on Saturday, mainly because the Volunteers were able to run the ball with a lot of success.
Tennessee averaged five yards per carry, but in Alabama's previous two games against Vanderbilt and South Carolina, the Crimson Tide held both under 3.5 yards per carry. In fact, for the season, Alabama has been very good up front, ranking 18th in EPA/Rush allowed.
The problem has been the secondary. Against Georgia and Vanderbilt, the Tide consistently got beat for big plays, and for the season, they're 44th in EPA/Pass allowed, which isn't what we're accustomed to seeing from an Alabama secondary.
The good news in this game is they'll be facing a backup quarterback, so they should be able to keep him in check.
Jalen Milroe has struggled the past few games. Against South Carolina and Tennessee, Milroe had four turnover-worthy plays and his PFF Passing Grade was below 55 in both games. His ADOT through his first five game was 11.7, but it's dropped all the way down to 7.7 in the last two games, which is concerning.
Honestly, for Milroe to have success in this game, Alabama is going to have to run the ball effectively and take the pressure off of him. The Crimson Tide were completely shut down against Tennessee, averaging only 2.2 yards per carry, but for the season, they've run the ball effectively.
Texas A&M's Le'Veon Moss went for 138 yards on the ground against this Missouri defense and Alabama's Jam Miller (6.4 yards per carry) has the potential to do the same.
Missouri vs. Alabama Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Missouri and Alabama match up statistically:
Missouri Offense vs. Alabama Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 27 | 27 |  |
| Line Yards | 55 | 37 | |
| Pass Success | 77 | 38 | |
| Havoc | 18 | 30 | |
| Finishing Drives | 88 | 27 | |
| Quality Drives | 30 | 23 | |
Alabama Offense vs. Missouri Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 69 | 17 | |
| Line Yards | 110 | 15 | |
| Pass Success | 17 | 41 | |
| Havoc | 105 | 23 | |
| Finishing Drives | 13 | 10 | |
| Quality Drives | 49 | 10 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 25 | 3 |
| PFF Coverage | 59 | 46 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 50 | 84 |
| Middle 8 | 59 | 10 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.7 (56) | 27.3 (68) |
| Rush Rate | 51% (81) | 56% (53) |
How to Bet My Missouri vs. Alabama Pick
Even though Pyne has some experience, this is a terrible situation for him going on the road into one of the toughest environments in college football.
On top of that, he's going to be down his top running backs and one of his top three targets, which is only going to make things more difficult.
Milroe needs to get things back on track, and what better time to do it that against a team limping into Bryant-Denny Stadium that hasn't faced quarterback even close to his level?
Finishing off scoring drives is going to be the difference in this game, and Alabama has a big advantage. The Crimson Tide rank 13th in this category, while Missouri with Cook under center was 88th nationally.
The line has gone from -13.5 to -16.5 with the news of Cook and Noel not playing, and the total has also gone from 57.5 to 51.
I don't think the spread has gone far enough to account for all of Missouri's injuries, so I like the value on the Crimson Tide to win this game in a blowout at -16.5.
Pick: Alabama -16.5
Alabama vs Missouri Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | Bryant-Denny Stadium |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 26 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC |
Missouri takes on Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 26, at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Alabama vs. Missouri Betting Trends
- 41% of bets and 57% of the money are on Alabama to cover the spread
- 99% of bets and 98% of the money on the moneyline are on Alabama to win outright
- 71% of bets and 55% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Alabama vs. Missouri Weather
