The SEC meets the FBS Independent when the Missouri Tigers (4-1) go into Amherst, Massachusetts, to face off against the Massachusetts Minutemen (1-5) in a Week 7 matchup. Kickoff is at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
The Tigers enter this one off a very disappointing blowout loss in College Station at the hands of the Texas A&M Aggies, while the Minutemen enter this one following a road loss to Northern Illinois.
Missouri is -27.5 on the spread and -8000 on the moneyline. Also, the total sits at 54.5 points.
The Tigers hold playoff hopes this season, and they'll look to right the ship in this one, while Massachusetts looks to try and steal a big win at home.
Can the Minutemen pull it off, or will the Tigers bounce back in a big way? Here's my Missouri vs UMass predictions and my college football picks for Saturday.
Missouri Tigers vs UMass Minutemen Prediction
- Missouri vs UMass Pick: Over 52.5
My UMass vs Missouri best bet is on the over, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Missouri vs UMass Odds, Spread, Line
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-27.5 -108 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -5000 |
| UMass Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+27.5 -112 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +1800 |
- Missouri vs UMass Spread: Missouri -27.5
- Missouri vs UMass Over/Under: 54.5 Points
- Missouri vs UMass Moneyline: Missouri ML -5000 · UMass ML +1800
Missouri Tigers Betting Preview
Eli Drinkwitz is in his fifth season in Columbia, and he's coming off his best campaign yet with the Tigers. They finished 11-2 last year after a win over Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl, and they entered this season returning some key pieces on offense.
Drinkwitz has playoff aspirations for his program, and he looks to have his team refocused after the beatdown it took down in College Station last week.
The Tigers have been led by Brady Cook under center, who has his two best receivers back from a season ago in Theo Wease Jr. and future first-round pick Luther Burden III. Cook has the Tigers putting up 31 points per game on the season, and that's without Burden producing a statement game.
With the exception of last week, running back Nate Noel has been running wild for this offense, averaging six yards per carry, too.
This offense can flat out score, ranking 13th in offensive success rate. The Tigers will look to put up big points in this one against a weak Massachusetts defense in a “get-right” game.
This Mizzou defense has been generally pretty good on the season, allowing roughly 18 points per game. The Tigers rank fourth in defensive success rate, but that number may be a little overinflated based on their non-conference schedule to this point.
The Tigers rank 40th in defensive havoc, which shows in their turnover margin (+3).
The Tigers should be able to control this game with their defense, but they do rank 110th in defensive explosiveness. They have a tendency to let up some chunk plays that could allow for some field goals and quick scores, especially if they don’t come out ready to play.
UMass Minutemen Betting Preview
Don Brown is back at the helm for the Minutemen in his third season in his second stint in Amherst. Brown coached Massachusetts for five seasons in the early 2000s, where he had more success than he's currently having.
Brown is 5-25 during his recent time in Amherst, and he's looking for just one marquee victory to help on the recruiting trail.
Coach Brown returned his offensive leader under center in the journeyman senior quarterback Taisun Phommachanh. Taisun played at Clemson and Georgia Tech prior to his time in Amherst, and he's looked better this season than he did a year ago.
He leads the offense in passing and rushing, which can cause problems for any defense. He has the Minutemen scoring 19 points per game as the 126th-best success rate team in the nation.
The key stat that helps UMass match up well with Missouri’s defense is the explosiveness factor. UMass ranks 76th in this category, and it'll need some of these big plays to put up some points on the Tigers to keep this one close.
Massachusetts has had a much better defense from a yards gained perspective than the scores of its games would indicate. It's allowing 31 points per game, but its defense ranks 33rd in the country in defensive success rate.
The Minutemen haven't played any offenses of the Mizzou caliber, though, so they'll really be put to the test this week. Massachusetts will need to be fired up to make stops early in Mizzou’s possessions because it doesn't force any turnovers (Havoc ranking is 107th).
The Minutemen also tend to allow big scoring plays, ranking 112th in defensive explosiveness. There's no doubt they'll allow points to the Tigers in this one, but they'll need to get enough stops to keep this one close.
UMass vs. Missori Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UMass and Missouri match up statistically:
Missouri Offense vs. UMass Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 36 | 84 | |
| Line Yards | 52 | 98 | |
| Pass Success | 49 | 76 | |
| Havoc | 13 | 111 | |
| Finishing Drives | 98 | 95 |  |
| Quality Drives | 19 | 117 | |
UMass Offense vs. Missouri Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 98 | 25 | |
| Line Yards | 86 | 15 | |
| Pass Success | 121 | 63 | |
| Havoc | 91 | 34 | |
| Finishing Drives | 121 | 75 | |
| Quality Drives | 102 | 25 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 16 | 2 |
| PFF Coverage | 76 | 71 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 47 | 131 |
| Middle 8 | 25 | 98 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.0 (62) | 28.7 (98) |
| Rush Rate | 51% (74) | 58% (56) |
Missouri vs. UMass Best Bet
Missouri’s offense should look to bounce back in a big way against this weak Massachusetts defense after only putting up 10 points a week ago.
We haven’t really seen Burden and the offense pop off this year, and this feels like the week they finally do.
I think there's a chance Missouri could reach the over on its own in this one given the spot, but I think it gets some help from the Minutemen, so I'll be taking over 52.5 points.
Pick: Over 52.5
Missouri vs UMass Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium, Amherst, MA |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 12 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
Missouri vs. UMass Betting Trends
- 52% of the bets and 51% of the money is on UMass to cover the spread against Missouri.
- 79% of the bets and 84% of the money is on the over.
UMass vs. Missouri Weather
