Missouri vs. LSU Odds
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 63.5 -110o / -110u | -230 |
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 63.5 -110o / -110u | +190 |
Why You Should Bet LSU
LSU should’ve beaten Ole Miss last week.
The Tigers generated 10 scoring opportunities to the Rebels’ seven. They finished with a 68% post-game win expectancy. One lost fumble was all Ole Miss needed to win that shootout.
So, I’m ready to buy low on LSU to bounce back here.
I don’t see how Mizzou keeps up with one of the most explosive offenses in college football.
Nothing against Brady Cook and the Tigers’ elite numbers, but they’ve come against South Dakota, Middle Tennessee, Kansas State, Memphis and Vanderbilt. That’s the 90th-ranked strength of schedule in CFB, per Power Rankings Guru. There’s exactly one top-40 SP+ defense in that group.
Not to mention that they’ve beaten three of those underwhelming opponents by less than one score. They’ve won three games against low-level competition by a combined 14 points. They’re overperforming their record and due for close-game regression.
Mizzou beat Middle Tennessee by four points, a team I’m extremely low on. So, we’re supposed to expect it can hang around with the SEC’s best offense?
Meanwhile, LSU has played the fourth-hardest schedule in FBS. The Tigers have already played four Power Five squads. They’re battle tested, and Mizzou is a walk in the park, relatively speaking.
The world is about to give up on the Tigers after their CFP hopes died last week, but that’s a square thought. Missouri has 72% of the betting tickets on it, per The Action Network App, and everyone knows you fade a trendy dog.
Brian Kelly is about to get mad, and I think they shove Missouri into a locker here. Eli Drinkwitz and Cook aren't ready for their biggest test of the year.
Why You Should Bet Missouri
Everybody knew coming into this season that if there was one area of concern for LSU, it was this secondary. Last year’s top corners — Jay Ward, Jarrick Bernard-Converse and Mekhi Garner — are all in the NFL now. In total, seven defensive backs departed from last season’s unit.
Safety Greg Brooks Jr. was the lone returning starter for this secondary and unfortunately, he hasn’t played since Week 2 after being diagnosed with a brain tumor.
As much as this secondary group was expected to be a question, it's been much more of a question than anybody anticipated. LSU ranks 130th in the country in EPA against the pass. It's 121st at preventing explosiveness through the air, getting torched by big plays in every game it's played.
If you prefer more traditional stats, the Tigers have allowed 260.2 passing yards per game this season, 110th in the country. They've surrendered 8.0 yards per attempt. Only Colorado and UMass have allowed more than the 13 passing touchdowns LSU has given up.
In case you missed last week, Ole Miss put up 706 yards of offense. The Rebels threw for 389 yards and ran for 317. Every team with a somewhat decent passing attack has tossed at least three scores against this defense.
You want to know what Missouri has done extremely well this season? Throw the ball.
Drinkwitz has his squad off to a 5-0 start, and his offense is firing on all cylinders. Missouri ranks 25th in the country in Success Rate, and the majority of that success has come through the air. The Tigers are 14th in the country in Passing Success Rate this season.
Cook has been nothing short of fantastic, as he has 11 touchdowns with no interceptions. He only has two turnover-worthy throws all season and hasn’t had one in three straight games.
Cook is completing 74.5% of his passes, the ninth best in the nation. He's averaging 10.4 yards per attempt and 293.6 yards per game. He's looked better and better in every game this season, throwing for 400 yards with four touchdowns last week while completing 80% of his passes.
LSU ranks 118th in coverage grade and 99th in tackling.
I don’t mean to make the obvious pun here, but Missouri is going to cook this LSU secondary.
LSU Refutation
McGrath: And you want to talk about getting lit up?
Let’s talk about it.
Mizzou is allowing 242 passing yards per game with a 64% completion rate, not a far cry from LSU’s mark.
Missouri allowed more than 250 passing yards with over a 60% completion rate to Vandy, Memphis and Kansas State.
And now you expect it to hold up even modestly against LSU? LSU is averaging 551 total yards and 44 points per game.
Yes, Ole Miss dropped 700 yards of total offense on LSU. But Drinkwitz ain’t Lane Kiffin.
And yes, LSU will struggle to get stops. But this will be a shootout, and Missouri hasn’t won a shootout with an offense of this caliber yet. Instead, it beat Middle Tennessee by four, Kansas State by three and Memphis by seven.
I doubt Missouri wins this one.
Mizzou Refutation
Ianniello: For starters, Kansas State ranks 24th in the country in Defensive Success Rate and Memphis ranks 39th.
And even if you think Missouri hasn’t played a good defense this year, LSU doesn’t have a good defense.
We saw Keon Coleman for Florida State, Tre Harris and Jordan Watkins last week and even tight end Luke Hasz for Arkansas light up the LSU defense. The unit stands no chance against elite receiving threats.
Enter Luther Burden III. Burden leads the country with 644 receiving yards this season. He has 43 catches and five touchdowns. He’s putting up 8.6 receptions and 128.8 yards per game.
For comparison's sake, for the first five games of DeVonta Smith’s Heisman season, he had 45 catches for 556 yards and four touchdowns.
Burden has gone over 110 yards in four straight games and has just two drops on 53 targets. He's averaged 14.9 yards per reception and leads the country with 26 catches of 10 yards or more. LSU has allowed 51 pass plays of 10+ yards this season, 111th in the country.
LSU will be able to score, no doubt. But as Tanner mentioned, Ole Miss just needed one stop to beat the Tigers. Missouri will be able to get more stops than LSU here. It ranks 21st in the country in Success Rate on defense.
Missouri has been especially dominant against the run, ranking third in the nation in Success Rate in that area. It's surrendered just 2.5 yards per carry this year. Only one team has scored a rushing touchdown against Missouri this season.
The Tigers will be able to force this LSU team to be more one-dimensional, and we haven't seen LSU stop anybody yet this season.
LSU Rebuttal
McGrath: Saying “Missouri ranks 21st in the country in Success Rate Allowed” leaves out a whole bunch of context.
The Tigers allow chunk plays like it’s their day job. They’re 114th in Explosiveness Allowed, 100th on the ground and 73rd through the air. They’re 99th in EPA per dropback allowed.
Mizzou allowed six explosive passing plays to Vandy, nine to Memphis and five to Middle Tennessee.
Behind Daniels, LSU is 28th nationally in Passing Explosiveness. He’s completed an absurd 66.7% of his passes 20-plus yards downfield for 11 touchdowns, 13 big-time throws and no turnover-worthy plays. He has a near-perfect 99.9 PFF Passing Grade on such throws, the highest mark in the country by two full points.
LSU’s top two receivers — Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. — are averaging 16 yards per reception. They have 13 touchdowns between them.
I mean, look at this damn throw!
Jayden Daniels's vertical passing accuracy is impressive. This was simply a long handoff to Malik Nabers! pic.twitter.com/z7ogfcKzS3
— Full-Time Dame 💰 (@DP_NFL) October 5, 2023
You’re telling me Mizzou can create multiple stops against that? With how it's trended against deep passes?
Sure, the Tigers have a great run defense, but they’ve allowed everything over the top. Daniels and the Tigers can beat anyone any which way, especially this Missouri secondary.
Expect explosive plays at will.
And if anyone is going to become one-dimensional here, it’s Mizzou.
LSU can pass or run on anybody, ranking ninth nationally in EPA per dropback and third in EPA per rush. It dominates in Standard Downs (sixth in Success Rate) and in Passing Downs (second in Success Rate).
Meanwhile, Missouri has a solid aerial attack but a lousy ground one, ranking 100th in EPA per rush and 130th in Rush Explosiveness. It's averaging only four YPC, a yard-and-a-half less than LSU. Kelly might be able to sit six guys back in coverage here.
Ole Miss was able to generate 700 yards of total offense because Kiffin boasts a balanced attack with playmakers in the backfield (Quinshon Judkins), out wide (Watkins) and at quarterback (Jaxson Dart).
Drinkwitz doesn’t have that, and it won’t be enough to keep up here.
Mizzou Rebuttal
Ianniello: I’ve already conceded that LSU will be able to pick up explosive pass plays in this one — Tanner and I both like the over — but Missouri should be able to have success limiting this LSU rushing attack, which will force the Tigers into more passing situations.
Oh, and if Tanner wants to use video aids to make his point, it doesn’t get much prettier than this:
COOK ➡️ BURDEN 🔥🔥@MizzouFootballpic.twitter.com/6skihzSVoS
— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) September 30, 2023
And by the way, Vanderbilt has a better Success Rate on defense than LSU does.
And while LSU doesn’t have anybody who can stop Burden, Missouri has an elite cornerback in Kris Abrams-Draine.
Abrams-Draine is the highest-graded cornerback at PFF this season. He's allowed just seven receptions against him for 49 yards and has five PBUs and three interceptions on the season. He's a lockdown corner and will be able to slow down this LSU passing attack.
Yes, Ole Miss ran the ball well on LSU — because the Tigers can’t stop the run. Well, Cody Schrader is second in the SEC, averaging 92.6 yards per game. He's averaging 5.6 yards per attempt this season and should have no problem running the ball against this pile of leaves that LSU calls a defense.
So, yes, I do think Missouri can get more stops than LSU in this one.
McGrath: Bet LSU -5
LSU’s defense can’t stop a nosebleed.
But the Tigers are built for that. They’re among the nation’s most dynamic, explosive offenses. They’ll run through you, around you or throw over you. They’re built to win shootouts.
I see no reason why they can’t do that to Mizzou here.
Cook’s Tigers have played in three straight shootouts, winning all three. But they haven’t played an offense this good, and they’re not ready to take the next step and win this game 55-50, especially since they can’t run the ball.
This will be another high-scoring affair (LSU and Mizzou Overs are a combined 7-1 this year) with little defense, but LSU has more firepower that’s been battle-tested against a brutal strength of schedule.
If you don’t believe me, ask yourself: Do you really trust Cook and Drinkwitz more than Daniels and Kelly?
I suspect LSU will win by a touchdown in a 70-point affair. Missouri is due for a close loss, anyway. I’ll say the final score ends up being 42-35.
Ianniello: Bet Missouri +5
Tanner said it perfectly. This game is going to be a shootout.
But which team is built to win shootouts? Missouri is 2-0 in shootouts while LSU is 1-2.
People are still sleeping on Missouri because of LSU’s preseason expectations.
This defense can’t stop an average offense, and Missouri has shown it has a great one. Cook and Burden are an elite duo and will torch this LSU defense all game long.
This line opened up at Missouri +8 and the Tigers have been bet down all the way to +4. While a lot of the value may be gone, it just shows us who the right side is in this matchup.
Only one Tiger can win, and I’ll take Mizzou to keep things rolling at home.
