College football history will be made on Saturday if the Montana State vs. New Mexico line holds.
Assuming the spread stays above double-digits, New Mexico will be the biggest FBS home underdog to an FCS team in the history of the sport. But my Montana State vs. New Mexico predictions aren't on the spread.
Montana State vs New Mexico Prediction
- Montana State vs New Mexico Pick: Under 55 or Better · 1H Under 28 or Better
My Montana State vs. New Mexico best bets on the full-game under and first-half under, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
New Mexico will benefit from the addition of Bronco Mendenhall at head coach after the former Virginia and BYU head man took a couple of years away from the coaching ranks. However, the roster isn't where it needs to be for the Lobos to come anywhere close to contending this season.
The Bobcats, meanwhile, are coming off an FCS Playoffs appearance, where they lost to North Dakota State by one in overtime in the second round. After waiting around with a bad taste in their mouths, head coach Brent Vigen's team will look to wash it out with an FBS victory to kick off the 2024-25 college football season.
So, with college football history on the horizon, where does the betting value lie? Let's dive into my Montana State vs. New Mexico preview for Saturday, Aug. 24.
Montana State vs New Mexico Odds
| Montana State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -115 | 53.5 -108o / -112u | -520 |
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -105 | 53.5 -108o / -112u | +385 |
- Montana State vs. New Mexico point spread: Montana State -12.5 · New Mexico +12.5
- Montana State vs. New Mexico total: Over/Under 53.5
- Montana State vs. New Mexico moneyline: Montana State -520 · New Mexico +385
The spread opened at Montana State -4.5 but now sits at Bobcats -12.5. The over/under opened at 55.5 but has dropped to 53.5.
Collin Wilson's Montana State vs New Mexico Preview
Montana State Bobcats Betting Preview: Mellott Leads Offense
Montana State has plenty of motivation after ending 2023 with a second-round loss to North Dakota State by one in overtime.
The Bobcats return quarterback Tommy Mellott, who owns a 24:6 touchdown-to-interception in his career. He shared time with Sean Chambers last season, but with Chambers now out of the picture, it's Mellott's show to run.
What's interesting about Mellott is that he committed only two turnover-worthy plays in 142 dropbacks a season ago. Vigen's new full-time starter simply doesn't make mistakes.
Mellott also added another 500 yards on the ground from designed calls and ran for over 1,00 yards and 12 scores in 2022. That's important because lead rusher Julian Davis also comes back after averaging seven yards per carry a season ago.
I know Montana State wants to pass more and be more balanced, but it loses its top three pass-catchers in Ty McCullouch, Clevan Thomas and Treyton Pickering. Jacob Trimble returns the most targets with 22.
With such a strong ground game between Mellott and Davis and a lot of question marks surrounding the passing situation, I'm not sure how much the Bobcats are going to lean into their aerial attack.
New Mexico Lobos Betting Preview: Pre-Year 0
I can't make a case for New Mexico to cover — especially considering that Mendenhall made it clear that this isn't even a Year 0 situation.
“Anybody can play any position if they show out in practice,” Mendenhall said at Mountain West Media Days in Las Vegas last month.
This is ultimately a complete reset in multiple key areas on both sides of the ball.
The question is, can Mendenhall get these Lobos to produce? We won't know until later in the season, but we do know who the three best players are.
On defense, it's Kyler Drake at edge, Tyler Kiehne on the defensive interior and Tavian Combs at nickelback. However, looking at the names of those who show up in PFF's defensive rush grading, none of those players finished in the top 14 on the roster last year.
While Combs can play in coverage and defend the pass, run defense was not this team's strength. That'll put the Lobos at a major disadvantage against a strong ground attack like Montana State's.
Offensively, quarterback Devon Dampier has shown positive signs in limited action. The junior threw for 525 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions a season ago while adding 328 yards and four scores on the ground.
However, there's no elevation advantage here for the Lobos, which is one of the few things they'll be able to lean on this season. Albuquerque sits at 5,300 feet above sea level, but the Bobcats are still used to playing at that elevation with Bozeman coming in higher than 4,800 feet.
My Montana State vs New Mexico Pick
Montana State vs New Mexico Best Bet
I'm looking toward the under here.
The key numbers reside at 55 for the full game and 28 for the first half. However, the market currently sits at 54.5 for the full game and 27.5 for the first half. It's important to get on the right side of those key numbers, so be sure to use those as boundaries.
It's worth noting that because Mendenhall is from Utah and has coached in the West for nearly his entire career, he has plenty of connections to Utah and New Mexico from previous coaching stops. If he has ties to anyone on staff at Montana State, he may take his foot off the gas a bit, telling his team to hand the ball off and slow down the pace if they're up by a couple of scores.
That would assuredly make this a lower-scoring game when all is said and done. With a lack of explosive plays and some turnover on both sides, look to take an under in this FBS vs. FCS Week 0 showdown.
Pick: Under 55 or Better · 1H Under 28 or Better
How to Watch Montana State vs New Mexico: Start Time, Channel, Location
| Location: | University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM |
| Date: | Saturday, August 24, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming: | FS1 |
Montana State vs New Mexico Weather
