National Championship Predictions
We've reached the final game of the college football season — the national title game between Michigan and Washington to see who will be crowned champions.
There are going to be so many different betting opportunities for the national title game, but what we're going to focus on here is the total, which has been moving up since it opened at 54. Now, it's sitting at 56.5 at most books.
Also, make sure to check out Collin Wilson's articles on the turf at NRG Stadium and the referees for the national title game, which could have an impact on scoring.
First, let's talk about the pace, because it's likely going to be pretty slow. Michigan ranked fourth-to-last in seconds per play at 30.9, while Washington was well below average as well at 27.31.
Washington used that slow pace in the third quarter of the Sugar Bowl to bleed the clock against Texas, which eventually allowed it to survive and advance to the national title game.
There are some concerns for the Michigan defense here, because I'm not sure it's faced a receiving corps and quarterback like Washington's three-headed monster and Michael Penix Jr.
The Wolverines were outstanding against Alabama, holding Jalen Milroe to just 116 yards passing. As the game went on, it became pretty evident that Alabama wasn't going to be able to throw the ball consistently. So, the Tide ran the ball 43 times as opposed to 23 pass attempts with a lot of designed quarterback runs, which Michigan did a great job defending.
The only other receiving corps similar to Washington that Michigan has faced was Ohio State's. Marvin Harrison Jr. pretty much cooked the Wolverines, catching five balls for 118 yards and a touchdown, and that was with an average quarterback in Kyle McCord.
Penix is one of the best quarterbacks in college football mainly because of how accurate of a deep-ball thrower he is. He finished the season with 27 big-time throws compared to just eight turnover-worthy plays.
This game is really going to come down to Penix and the passing game, because like the game against Texas, I'm not sure the Huskies are going to be able to run the ball effectively. Against the Longhorns, Washington's running backs ran the ball for just 68 yards on 26 carries.
Dillon Johnson is going to play after suffering an injury late against Texas, but he admitted that he's not 100%. So, going up against a Michigan front that ranks top-five in EPA/Rush Allowed puts a lot of pressure on Penix, who will also be facing a top-10 secondary.
Washington head coach Kalen DeBoer has no update on Dillon Johnson’s status other than the previous “he’s going to play.” The RB re-aggravated a foot injury late in the Sugar Bowl. #CFBPlayoff#NationalChampionshippic.twitter.com/MVRIaazYwE
— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) January 6, 2024
The key for Michigan in this game offensively is controlling the tempo and the clock with Blake Corum and the run game. Washington has a very poor rush defense in the trenches, ranking 124th in Stuff Rate and 132nd in Defensive Line Yards.
Texas completely dominated the line of scrimmage against Washington in every single aspect.
Image via CollegeFootballData
Corum is one of the best running backs in the country, but Michigan really wasn't that effective running the football against Alabama. More than anything, it was a lot of three- or four-yard runs because the Wolverines finished 115th in rushing explosiveness.
Washington does have a top-25 secondary and held Texas' Quinn Ewers to 7.4 yards per attempt, but J.J. McCarthy is a much different quarterback. Ewers is a pure pocket passer, whereas McCarthy is much more efficient throwing on the run and creating outside the pocket.
McCarthy ranked second in college football in EPA on throws outside the pocket, where he also averaged 10.7 yards per attempt.
McCarthy is also one of the best quarterbacks in the country when utilizing play action, while Washington has been very average defending those plays, allowing a positive EPA.
Image via PFF
The biggest advantage Michigan is going to have in this game, though, is its ability to finish off scoring drives. Washington ranks 90th in the country in Finishing Drives Allowed and 73rd in red-zone scoring percentage allowed.
At the same time, Michigan finished sixth in the nation, averaging 4.9 points per scoring opportunity.
Even though they're going to be playing at a slow pace, the Wolverines have a massive advantage on the ground and in the red zone that's too big to ignore. Michigan scored three touchdowns on its four trips inside Alabama's 40-yard line, and that was a much better defense than the one it's going to be facing Monday night.
Quite frankly, I'm a little worried about the over if Washington can't run the ball and Penix can't light up a top-10 secondary. Ultimately, I'll take the Wolverines team total.
I have Michigan projected for 34.2 points, so I like the value on the Michigan team total over 30.5.
Pick: Michigan Team Total Over 30.5
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