The Ohio State Buckeyes (13-2, 7-2 B1G) face off against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (14-1) for the College Football National Championship. It’s been a thrilling season for college football, and we cap it off with a battle between two powerhouses in the National Championship.
Ohio State dominated Texas in the Cotton Bowl to advance to the big dance by the score of 28-14. The Buckeyes defense made Quinn Ewers obsolete, sacking him four times as he completed just under 60% of his passes.
Notre Dame is here after a battle with Penn State to the bone in a 27-24 Orange Bowl victory. The Irish came back from a 10-3 first-half deficit and registered 17 points in the fourth quarter to pull ahead. Now, they’re one win away from their first national title since 1988.
Let’s dive into our National Championship picks, college football predictions and same-game parlay for Ohio State vs. Notre Dame on Monday, Jan. 20.
National Championship Picks, Parlay for Ohio State vs. Notre Dame
- Ohio State -8
- Under 46
- Emeka Egbuka Over 57.5 Receiving Yards
- Riley Leonard Under 175.5 Passing Yards
Parlay Odds: +510 (Caesars)
Please always remember to bet responsibly. SGPs are long shots for a reason.
National Championship Odds for Ohio State vs. Notre Dame
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 46 -105o / -115u | -385 |
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 46 -105o / -115u | +300 |
Spread Pick: Ohio State -8
This is among one of the largest spreads in the history of the National Championship, and for good reason. Even though Notre Dame was statistically the best team in the FBS against the spread, it doesn’t look good for the Irish.
Leading up to last week’s bowl games, I kept saying that Notre Dame had a decent shot to beat Texas, but if it takes on Ohio State, it’s curtains for the Irish.
I’d like to clear the air before I have several dozen leprechauns armed with shillelaghs at my front door, but I’m not exactly crazy about Notre Dame. I love what Marcus Freeman has done to build this program, and he’s one of the more likable coaches in the nation.
However, I can’t in good conscience bank on Riley Leonard to win me a National Championship. Leonard’s a fine quarterback, who has had a career year, and I liked him when he was at Duke. The problem is, he’s untrustworthy and awfully predictable.
While the Irish could convert on downs through the air at a solid pace, they were 98th in Passing Success Rate and 88th in PPA.
Also, let’s be honest here — the Irish were lucky to walk away with the victory against Penn State. James Franklin once again fumbled the bag (I was premature when I said he beat the fraud allegations), and Drew Allar was not ready for the big stage.
Notre Dame simply took advantage of some good Freeman motivation and an opponent that wasn’t prepared to take a stranglehold of the game.
Ohio State is a different breed, with generational talent and efficient playmaking. I’ll never be a fan of Ryan Day, but the stars lined up perfectly for the Buckeyes to walk away with the natty.
Over/Under Pick: Under 46
These programs are so hard to predict when it comes to the total. So, because of that, I think it’s safer to lean on the under.
Notre Dame never had a stretch where it went over the total three games in a row. For Ohio State, it only went over in three consecutive games during non-conference play. Once conference play began, the Buckeyes hit the under in eight out of the next 12 games.
Given Notre Dame’s limitations through the air and focus on the run, there’s an opportunity for the Irish to run the ball quite a bit. However, Ohio State has the top defense in college football and ranks third against the run.
So, even if Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price aren’t running the ball effectively, the Buckeyes have an elite secondary that can stuff Leonard into a locker.
Ohio State Player Prop: Emeka Egbuka Over 57.5 Yards
With the emergence of true freshman receiver Jeremiah Smith, it sometimes feels like Emeka Egbuka has become the forgotten receiver.
However, that couldn’t be further from the truth. He may not be the big-play threat that he was in his sophomore season, but efficiency is the name of the game. He’s currently at 12.6 yards per catch with 947 receiving yards, so if he breaks the 57.5 mark, which I think he will, it’ll be his second season with over 1,000 yards.
We saw the Irish hold Penn State’s receivers to zero receptions, which is an amazing stat on its own. However, airing it out was never Penn State’s game. It mainly focused on the run and its elite tight-end play.
Notre Dame is facing a totally different animal this time.
I fully expect Smith to have trouble like he did against Texas, when he registered only one catch for three yards.
Unlike Texas, though, the Irish are going to lean on man coverage, which would be a welcome sight for the Buckeyes, more specifically Egbuka.
The senior will most likely be matched up with nickel corner Jordan Clark, who’s been solid. But Egbuka has built a reputation on elite route running with a sound slot presence.
Over the past five games, Egbuka has amassed over 50 receiving yards, including three 70-plus yard games against ranked opponents in Indiana, Tennessee and Oregon. I see him breaking that number again in what will most likely be his final college game.
Notre Dame Player Prop: Riley Leonard Under 175.5 Passing Yards
I don’t think Leonard will have much room to throw the ball as much.
In the Sugar Bowl against Georgia, he threw for just 90 yards. While Georgia has a solid pass defense, Ohio State boasts the top passing defense in college football.
Leonard’s not a bad quarterback, but throwing for yardage isn’t in his nature, which is why 175.5 isn’t as low of a number as it seems.
His season-high is 229 yards against Stanford, followed by the Orange Bowl las week, when he threw for 223 yards.
By no means is 175.5 out of reach, but throwing against Caleb Downs and Denzel Burke will be one of his toughest tasks all season.
If Ohio State dominates this game like I think it will, Leonard will have little to no impact on this game.
