National Championship Picks, Predictions: How Special Teams Could Impact Ohio State vs. Notre Dame

National Championship Picks, Predictions: How Special Teams Could Impact Ohio State vs. Notre Dame article feature image
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Doug Murray/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Notre Dame kicker Mitch Jeter.

Special teams will undoubtedly impact Monday's National Championship between Ohio State and Notre Dame play.

However, the overall numbers from SP+ paint a picture of mediocrity in the special teams department for both teams, with neither placing in the top 50.

Kick Returns & Punt Returns

Both teams have identical efficiencies in defending kickoff returns and punt returns. However, execution on both offensive kickoff returns and punt returns tell a different story, with Notre Dame having a heavy advantage.

Notre Dame ranks top-35 in kickoff return efficiency compared to Ohio State at 126th. Only four of 14 returns for the Buckeyes were considered efficient, per SportSource Analytics.

Notre Dame improves when it comes to punt returns, transforming into a top-10 team nationally with 37 of its 74 returns graded as efficient. Ohio State places 59th in those same analytics thanks to a timeshare between safety Caleb Downs and receiver Brandon Inniss.

Max Hurleman is the punt returner for Notre Dame, logging 22 returns for 128 yards and 16 fair catches.

There are two takeaways from the special teams comparison.

First, Notre Dame should win the field-position battle with a massive edge in punt and kickoff returns.

The player to keep an eye on for the Irish is kickoff return specialist Jayden Harrison. The Marshall transfer has 13 returns with an average of 25.8 yards, taking one to the house against Georgia.

JAYDEN HARRISON

9️⃣8️⃣ YARDS#GoIrish | @j_harrison5

pic.twitter.com/58i6kwbw3H

— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) January 2, 2025

Harrison has also seen usage in the passing game, generating 23 targets from Leonard for 18 receptions and 223 yards. The fifth-year senior has logged an explosive catch in four games this season for the Irish, getting into the end zone just once against Virginia in Week 12.

Harrison’s lone receiving score accounts for more than 5% of Leonard’s total passing touchdowns. Considering the special teams' recent ability to score, Jayden Harrison Anytime Touchdown +4000 serves as our long shot for the National Championship.

Field Goal Kicking

The season-long numbers suggest Ohio State has the advantage in field-goal kicking with Jayden Fielding’s leg. The sophomore has connected on all 69 PATs and 11-of-15 field-goal attempts.

However, three of those four missed attempts have come in recent games against Michigan and Tennessee.

The hot leg belongs to Notre Dame kicker Mitch Jeter, who has connected on 7-of-8 field-goal attempts in the playoff. The sweet spot for the South Carolina transfer has been from 30 to 49 yards, generating a career mark of 22-for-27 in four years.

There are props in the market for Jeter’s total kicking points. With Ohio State ranking as the best defense in terms of Finishing Drives, Jeter should be called upon for attempts.

The Notre Dame kicker has recorded 29 kicking points over three playoff games, recording eight extra points and seven field goals. Jeter Over 5.5 Total Kicking Points at plus-money on FanDuel will be added to the portfolio.

Picks: Jayden Harrison Anytime Touchdown +4000 · Mitch Jeter Over 5.5 Total Kicking Points

About the Author
Collin is a senior writer for the Action Network, but serves in various roles behind the scenes as well. As someone who specializes in data visualization of probabilities, power ratings, and head-to-head matchups, Collin’s work within the college football space powers the Action Network’s PRO projections throughout the college football season, and has done so since the birth of the app in 2017. Collin contributes similarly to the college basketball vertical, and his passion for predictive analytics have led him to become a key force in finding betting edges in more niche markets such as professional wrestling and entertainment awards.

Follow Collin Wilson @_Collin1 on Twitter/X.

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