Kenny McIntosh Under 66.5 Rushing Yards
Based on the current spread of Georgia -13 in Monday's National Championship game, I'm projecting around 23.5 carries to be split between Georgia running backs Kenny McIntosh and Daijun Edwards.
To be even more specific, I'm projecting 11.5 attempts for McIntosh and 12 for Edwards with each back finishing around 56 yards.
The market has Edwards' yardage prop at 49.5 and McIntosh at 66.5, so I see betting value on Edwards to go over his posted number and McIntosh to go under his.
Each of these props correlates with a side in this game. For example, if you're betting Georgia to cover, I would go with the Edwards over. However, if you're on TCU or don't have a side, I would bet the McIntosh under. Personally, I don't have a side, so I'll bet McIntosh's under.
Things will get a bit dicier for Georgia's run game if tight end Darnell Washington's ankle injury forces him to sit out or play at less than 100%. According to Action Network's Collin Wilson's National Championship betting preview, Washington is graded as the second-best run blocker on the Bulldogs, per PFF. His replacement, meanwhile, graded out as a bottom-five run blocker through 74 run plays.
I also think the Bulldogs will rely on McIntosh's receiving ability a bit more in this game and see slight value in his receiving prop. In fact, McIntosh ranks third on the team with 505 yards receiving on 42 receptions.
I'm projecting McIntosh's rushing median closer to 56.5 yards, so I like the value we're getting at 66.5. I would bet this down to 63.5.
