Georgia is the largest national title game favorite since Miami (FL) closed -11.5 against Ohio State in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl.
And when you pair oddsmakers' faith in Georgia with the blowout trend in National Championship games in recent years (22-point average margin in last four), it’s understandable that props and exotics appear to be more attractive than a side or total in Monday night’s game.
With that in mind, I’ve identified three props that offer big value to bettors.
1st Touchdown: TE Brock Bowers, Georgia (+650)
Georgia’s superstar tight end found the end zone nine total times on the year, and three of them were first-score touchdowns. Plays like this are predicated on opportunity and game planning, and a Bowers bet checks both boxes.
If you combined the John Mackey Award winner’s targets and carries in each game this year, he exceeded a total of six in 13-of-14 games. The carries generally were end-arounds or reverses for Bowers and have led to a pair of touchdowns. One of those carries came against South Carolina in the red zone, displaying the Georgia staff’s willingness to get him involved in any way possible inside the opponents' 20-yard line.
Michigan’s Colston Loveland and Luke Schoonmaker found a decent amount of success against TCU's pass defense in the semifinals, combining for five receptions and 68 yards.
It’s also worth noting that TCU hasn’t faced an opponent all season long that has a tight end of this caliber who is integrated so deeply into their opponent’s game plan.
At nearly 7-1, Bowers is preferable to strike first over a host of ballcarriers in this game that are all sub 4-1 in the first-touchdown market.
Double Result: TCU Wins 1H, Georgia Wins Game (+700)
Georgia has trailed at halftime twice this season (Mizzou, Ohio State) and was very slow out of the blocks against Kentucky and Georgia Tech, scoring nine and 10 points in the first half, respectively.
That’s four suboptimal starts in the last 10 games for the SEC champion.
The country also witnessed how Sonny Dykes and his staff viewed the opportunity to take down a heavily-favored national power. For TCU, its underdog status was liberating from a play-calling perspective, and Max Duggan seemed as loose as you could hope for when facing an elite defense.
Speaking of elite defenses, Georgia’s pass defense doesn’t qualify. Running the ball against the Dawgs is a complete waste of time (84.7 YPG, 1st). So, aside from a few Duggan scrambles, I don’t foresee the Horned Frogs investing too much in the ground attack.
But when the ball is in the air, TCU is at a decided advantage.
The Bulldogs struggle in the Havoc department with an interception (81st) and sack rate (77th) that's actually below average. Their issues were on full display against Ohio State, and given the tremendous receiving corps that TCU plays with, I see a lot of success coming through the air for Duggan and Company.
Early success for TCU and both Georgia and Stetson Bennett’s slow start history makes this a compelling exotic at +700.
But it’ll take a Georgia comeback to cash this ticket, and that may be the part of this I’m most confident in pre-bet. The Horned Frogs have allowed the 82nd-most second-half points of any team in the country, and when the lights shine the brightest in the CFP, Bennett has been a virtuoso.
In the fourth quarter of CFP games, Bennett has a completion percentage of 88%. And these haven’t been garbage-time check-down throws but rather while orchestrating a pair of fourth-quarter comebacks.
He also led the SEC in fourth-quarter passer rating two years in a row. With Bennett being the lynchpin of this wager, I feel there’s too much value to pass up and would play it down to +600.
Georgia To Win By 13-18 Points (+425)
If you’re on board with the last wager, why not join me in this generous winning-margin band?
Catching the key numbers of 14 and 17 with margin for error on a missed extra point along the way is why I view this as the best band to bet on the board.
I also like the fact Kirby Smart understands that in modern college football, a touchdown lead just isn’t what it used to be. I don’t see UGA going into its shell and taking the air out of the ball should it gain a seven- or 10-point lead.
Even if Georgia does give its three-headed backfield of Daijun Edwards, Kenny McIntosh and Kendall Milton more fourth-quarter carries, that doesn’t necessarily mean it's throttling down against a soft TCU run defense. The Horned Frogs allowed 156.8 yards per game on the ground this season (70th) and finished 80th in Success Rate Allowed and 66th in explosive runs surrendered.
Long runs by Kansas State's Deuce Vaughn and Michigan's Donovan Edwards demonstrated how opponents can rip long runs against Joe Gillespie’s 3-3-5 defense. I would play this band down to +350.
