As has become tradition, I’ve put together my full prop/exotic card for Monday's National Championship game between Washington and Michigan.
Some of these menu items are tame in the -110 to -115 range, while others offer big payouts.
Let’s start conservatively and work our way up to so big swings on Monday night in Houston.
Player Props
TE Jack Westover
Over 28.5 Receiving Yards
Michigan made life miserable for Jalen Milroe in the Rose Bowl, and it'll aim to replicate that performance on Monday night against Washington. The Wolverines enter in the top five in both pressure rate and Defensive Line Havoc Rate.
This means that Michael Penix Jr. and his Joe Moore Award-winning offensive line need to be in sync from the get-go.
Given Penix’s mobility limitations, I don’t foresee many designed rollouts or Penix opting to throw on the run outside the pocket as a sustained game plan. What I do foresee is more throws to his safety blanket, tight end Jack Westover.
Since Oct. 28, Westover has had four games with five or more targets. And he’s coming off of a six-catch, 59-yard performance against Texas. He rewarded his quarterback's confidence in him time after time against the Longhorns.
Given Michigan’s stellar play at cornerback and investment in limiting big plays from Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan and Ja’Lynn Polk, there will be ample opportunities for Westover to find open space in the middle of the field.
Down the stretch, this was exactly how teams were coping with Michigan’s pressure and coverage chops on the perimeter. Ohio State targeted tight end Cade Stover six times (three receptions, 42 yards) against the Wolverines, and Maryland also targeted tight end Corey Dyches plenty in a near upset of Michigan later in the regular season.
And if you combine Penn State’s top two tight ends, Tyler Warren and Theo Johnson, the Nittany Lions threw to their big pass-catchers eight times, resulting in 35 yards.
Given the potential for Washington to abandon the run, Michigan’s pass rush, and Penix’s ability to get rid of the ball quickly, I feel confident he’ll receive at least five targets in this one. I would play Westover’s receiving over up to 34.5 yards.
RB Blake Corum
Under 116.5 Receiving + Rushing Yards
Blake Corum has accounted for 118 or more yards from scrimmage twice all season long, and he needed 25 yards in overtime against Alabama to get it done in the last game. For the season, he’s averaging just 87.7 yards from scrimmage per game.
Suffice it to say, he isn’t a big-play back capable of hurting teams with long runs or explosive receptions out of the backfield. He is a power runner with a nose for the end zone who will undoubtedly leave his mark on this game in short-yardage situations.
But this all-purpose number is about 10 yards too high and a clear overreaction to his usage in the passing game against Alabama.
If the receiving threat scares you here, I would go back and look at how Washington improved from Game 1 to Game 2 against the Oregon running backs this season.
Bucky Irving killed Washington in their first meeting, accounting for 161 yards from scrimmage. But then the Washington staff made some changes, got healthier on that side of the ball and locked up Bucky (36 total yards) and backup Jordan James (65 yards) in the second meeting.
I would play this number down to 110.5 and instead target a touchdown prop on Corum. After opening at +150 to score two touchdowns against Washington, his number has come down to +110 across the market. That’s still a gift considering Corum is Michigan’s bell-cow in goal-to-go situations and has 10 multi-touchdown games this season.
If you toss out runaway blowouts of East Carolina, Nebraska and Michigan State, he served up two or more touchdowns in 10 of his 11 games. I don’t see this game being a 21-plus point win for Michigan, so that means plenty of opportunities for Corum to do his thing inside the five.
CB Will Johnson
To Record An Interception (+600)
If you watched the Sugar Bowl, Washington victimized the Longhorns on 50/50 balls. This wasn’t anything new. The Huskies have unwavering faith in their receivers to win in those situations and Penix to place the ball perfectly 15, 20, and sometimes 30 yards downfield.
But that also creates opportunities for talented ballhawks in the secondary to intercept passes. Enter Will Johnson.
Johnson is uniquely positioned to make a game-changing play in the national title game because he’ll draw Rome Odunze and has the size (6-foot-2) and speed (4.4) to stay in his hip pocket.
He’s a consensus top-three cornerback prospect in the 2025 NFL Draft and has three interceptions to his name this season.
One of those came against Ohio State in coverage against Marvin Harrison Jr. His ability to jump routes will be key as Michigan looks to replicate the pressure that suffocated Jalen Milroe in the first half of the Rose Bowl.
Penix has thrown interceptions in eight of his 14 starts this season, so while he’s prolific through the air, he’s not overly protective of the football. The number is key here, as my cutoff would be +550 before I believe the value dries up.
QB Michael Penix Jr.
3+ Passing Touchdowns (+220)
Whether Dillon Johnson can play or not, Washington will need to throw the ball to break this Michigan defense. The Wolverines finished eighth in Success Rate against the run while holding opposing ball-carriers to just three yards per carry.
But one color-coded defensive metric does pop for Michigan, and not in a good way. Michigan finished outside the top 40 in aerial explosives allowed. When you filter that down to passing downs, that number drops into the elite category at second nationally.
What that means is you need to throw before third and long, or you’re not moving the football on the Wolverines through the air.
As for the red zone, which I think is where this prop lives or dies, Michigan allowed just 10 touchdowns all season long. If that feels low, you’re right — it’s the fewest touchdowns allowed in the nation.
But Kalen DeBoer and Ryan Grubb have made adjustments in the second half of the season and improved their passing attack inside the opponent's 20-yard line. Penix has thrown a red-zone touchdown in five of his last seven starts, and I believe that’s how they’ll attack Michigan here as well.
This strategy is only amplified if Johnson is a late scratch or proves to be ineffective due to his nagging foot injury. Penix has 10 games with 35-plus attempts this season, so the opportunities will be there.
I would shop around for this one and set a price floor at +215 with the chances of grabbing a higher number in the +235 range.
Double Result
Michigan to Win 1H, Washington to Win Game (+1200)
Michigan has led at halftime in every single game this season. It’s a familiar script for the Wolverines. And Washington has not only grown accustomed to playing in close games, but it's also entered the locker room at halftime tied in two of its last three games.
Washington won’t blink if it needs to play its best football of the season in the final 30 minutes of the national title game.
The Huskies are also 8-0 in one-score games this season. So, if I were cooking up a game script in which the Huskies were to win it, I would most definitely stick to the trend with them pulling it out late.
And how about some national title game history? In three of the last seven National Championship games, the team that trailed at halftime came back and won the game. Add in the Tie-Alabama result from 2015, and you start to see why this bet has some real legs at this point.
It also provides robust hedging opportunities if Michigan were to take a small lead into halftime.
This bet can be found at 12-1 at DraftKings, while it's 8-1 at most other books.
Jalen McMillan TD + Washington to Win By 1-6 Points (+900)
As I laid out above in the Penix section, I believe Washington will need to throw the ball to score in the red zone, which should give more opportunities to its second and third options out wide.
McMillan reeled in a red-zone score against Texas and looks like the 2022 version of himself once again. During that injury-free campaign, he reeled in 79 passes for 1,098 yards and nine scores. He is a No. 1 receiver in a No. 2 receiver’s clothing.
I’ve been on the record saying that Washington would win this game, and my exact prediction is a 31-28 nailbiter with Grady Gross banging home a game-winning field goal at the buzzer. So, pairing up my favorite anytime touchdown scorer (+150) with the exact window I believe this outcome will fall in (+425) makes sense.
Michigan’s last three games against top-five competition — Alabama, Ohio State and TCU last season — resulted in a tie at the end of regulation, a six-point victory sealed by an interception at its own 21-yard line and a six-point loss.
These games have been coin-flips, which is why I want to position myself to benefit from a coin-flip outcome going against the No. 1 team.
