It’s time to bust out my full card of props/exotics for the National Championship showdown between Ohio State and Notre Dame on Monday night.
We’ll start with a play priced at -114 and gradually increase the payout potential until we land on an MVP candidate priced in the +1200 neighborhood.
With the final game of the college football season upon us, let's dive into my National Championship props and exotics for Ohio State vs. Notre Dame on Monday, Jan. 20.
Aneyas Williams Over 41.5 Rush + Receiving Yards
-114 at FanDuel · Play to 45.5
In 1971, the NCAA allowed Division I college football programs to schedule 11 regular-season games for the first time. It would take another 35 years before the regular season limit was expanded to 12 games. More than a decade later, in 2018, Clemson became the first school to record a perfect 15-0 record in 121 years.
The games required to climb to the top of the ladder in this sport continue to expand, and with a 12-team playoff now in place, it will be commonplace for the national champion to have competed in 16 games when all is said and done.
Why is this important for this particular bet? Because wear and tear comes into play far more often in today’s game than it did two generations ago.
A team could play 10 regular games, receive a five-week vacation and then play in a single bowl back in the 1960s. Now. the gauntlet of games has made college football more like its professional older brother — a game of attrition.
Notre Dame has dealt with its fair share of injuries and demonstrated its depth in response to said injuries. These injuries have also incentivized the Irish to give some of their freshmen the opportunity to contribute.
Aneyas Williams, one of the most prolific ball-carriers in Missouri high school football history, started this season sitting in the back row of Notre Dame’s running back room. The true freshman was lucky to get practice reps, let alone game action.
And that’s how things played out for him in the month of September. Five games into his college career, he’d touched the ball a grand total of six times.
Undeterred, Williams maximized his opportunities in October and November and carved out a receiving role for himself within the Irish offense.
Pete Sampson, the Notre Dame beat writer for The Athletic, was quick to point out that Williams’ ability to pick up blitzers this fall would translate to more snaps down the stretch. His trustworthiness as a third-down back has doubled his average snap count from 12 during the regular season to just shy of 24 during ND’s playoff run.
I feel confident that Notre Dame will feature him on third downs and in pass situations, and given the likelihood that Notre Dame is playing from behind in the second half, I believe that will translate to 25-30 snaps and 7-10 touches for the true freshman.
Ohio State just surrendered 101 receiving yards to Texas’ backfield duo of Jaydon Blue and Quintrevion Wisner, and that wasn’t the first time Ohio State’s opponents used running backs to great effect in the passing game.
Penn State (54 yards) and Oregon (37 yards) also took advantage of Ohio State’s linebackers in space.
If Williams receives four or five targets, he should be able to approach this hybrid total on receiving yards alone. I would play this one up to 45.5 yards.
Ohio State to Lead At End of Every Quarter
+125 at DraftKings · Play to +100
Ohio State flipped the script, quite literally, in the past three games.
Chip Kelly’s opening game script had grown stale, evidenced by three first-quarter points in the Buckeyes’ final three regular-season games combined.
How drastic has the offensive turnaround been in the early going during this playoff run? Ohio State’s opening three drives in each CFP game, nine drives in total, have resulted in six touchdowns across the Tennessee, Oregon and Texas games.
The passing game, in particular, has been electric in the first quarter.
Will Howard’s opening three drives against UT, UO and Texas have been nothing short of spectacular. He has completed 26-of-35 passes for 422 yards and a pair of touchdowns on those opening drives.
I much prefer this prop and its plus-money against Ohio State’s full game (-375), first half (-250) or first quarter (-215) moneyline. I would play this one down to even money.
2+ TDs for Either Jeremiah Smith or TreVeyon Henderson
+220 at FanDuel · Play to +200
The Buckeyes' dual-barrel offensive engine relies upon No. 4 and No. 32 hitting big plays.
Against Tennessee and Oregon, Smith averaged over 22 yards per reception and scored a pair of touchdowns against both the Vols and Ducks.
Henderson also found pay dirt twice in the first round and quarterfinals of the CFP, averaging just shy of 10 yards per carry on the ground.
As a duo, they’ve scored nine touchdowns during Ohio State’s playoff run, and the average distance of those scores was 39 yards from scrimmage. These are major home-run threats, full stop.
It’s also nice to know that while Ohio State prefers to use Quinshon Judkins in the red zone, Henderson still has three red-zone rushing touchdowns in his last seven games.
And while Smith has been taking the top off of defenses lately, it may surprise some to learn that he actually has eight red-zone scores to his name this season.
Anything north of +200 on this prop is worth a swing because of these players' versatility, red-zone usage and overall explosiveness.
Non-Offensive TD
+225 at DraftKings
Notre Dame leads the nation with 32 takeaways. Those takeaways have translated to six defensive touchdowns, also tops in the nation.
Ohio State has three scoop-and-scores and a pick-six to its name, good for fifth nationally.
The Irish have taken one kickoff to the house and Ohio State one punt return.
We haven’t seen a pair of teams meet in the national title game with this much scoring potential on defense and special teams since the 2019 title game between Clemson and Alabama, which, by the way, produced a non-offensive touchdown 100 seconds into the game.
Now, the natural pushback on this is that non-offensive touchdowns can feel flukey.
But when two teams combine to score 12 non-offensive touchdowns across 30 games, that speaks to their coaching, mentality once they have the ball in their hands, and the pure athletes they have on special teams and defense.
Still not convinced? How about a historical nugget to sway you toward this bet?
Dating back to 2013, there have been eight national title games that featured at least one team with four non-offensive touchdowns to their credit. In half of those games, a non-offensive touchdown was scored.
Given the fact that we have not one, but two teams that love to score touchdowns as their offenses watch, well, that’s enough for me to get on board with this bet at +225.
Riley Leonard to Throw 2+ INTs
+280 at bet365 · Play to +250
Leonard has a turnover-worthy play rate of just 2.1%. If you compare that with qualified passers from Power Four leagues, only seven quarterbacks had lower negative play rates.
But this is all about game flow.
When Notre Dame has a lead and is running the football, Leonard plays nearly flawless football. He’s a seasoned veteran with a play-caller in the booth who can scheme players open when a defense has to respect the run.
But when Riley and the Irish get into a hole, things get dicey.
Leonard has faced a fourth-quarter deficit twice all season long — once against Northern Illinois and in his previous game against Penn State. Half of his turnover-worthy plays for the entire season came from those two games.
He was picked off twice by both the Huskies and Nittany Lions. NIU and Penn State pressured him on 12 dropbacks in each game.
Ohio State has the pass rush (17th) and Havoc generation (fourth) to get in his face, and it has the secondary to take it away.
I believe this game is going to turn into an Ohio State runaway, and one of my favorite ways to play that angle is to bank on Leonard forcing it in the second half while trying to play catch-up.
That should translate to a pair of interceptions, if not three. I would play this one down to +250.
Yes to An Octopus
+900 at DraftKings
An octopus is when a player scores a touchdown and the two-point conversion immediately following said touchdown.
I like this on the Notre Dame side of things because Riley Leonard and Jeremiyah Love have been touchdown machines, scoring 33 rushing touchdowns on a near 50/50 split between them.
As I’ve stated above, I believe Ohio State wins this game going away, which increases the chance of Notre Dame chasing points late in the game.
Whether it’s a Love or Leonard touchdown, Notre Dame is likely to dial up a bully-ball two-point conversion play for one of them.
Ohio State enters the national title game outside of the top 70 in Stuff Rate, so I feel confident that should the Irish go for two for the first time this season, they’ll run right at them.
On the Ohio State side of things, if we get a red-zone touchdown from Quinshon Judkins, I wouldn’t hate to be holding an Octopus ticket should they attempt a two-point conversion. Judkins has embraced the role of Ohio State’s short-yardage back, dominating goal-to-go carries for the Buckeyes.
Notre Dame’s strength on defense isn’t in the trenches. Look no further than the Irish’s ranking in terms of Rushing Success Rate allowed (69th) and Defensive Line Yards (57th).
TreVeyon Henderson to Win MVP
+1200 at Caesars
Once upon a time, Henderson was the nation’s top running back recruit. He showed up on campus in Columbus and took the college football world by storm in 2021. As a true freshman, he stacked up 1,560 yards from scrimmage with 19 touchdowns.
He did most of that damage before his 19th birthday. The sky was the limit until the injury bug hit. He suffered through injuries in 2022 and 2023 and then the dreaded timeshare this fall with Judkins.
The silver lining to Henderson’s reduced workload has been his renewed explosiveness in the playoffs. He looks fresh, and he’s popping off huge plays on the ground and through the air.
I anticipate that he’ll receive around 15 touches in this game. The yardage will help his MVP case, but it really just comes down to touchdowns.
If he’s the only Buckeye to score multiple touchdowns in this game, he has a great chance of taking home MVP honors.
The two teams that gave Notre Dame the most problems this season brought the fight to the Irish on the ground. Northern Illinois turned back the clock to the 1950s and ran it 45 times for 190 yards in its 16-14 upset of ND in South Bend.
Penn State held a lead with under five minutes to play in the Orange Bowl by feeding Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen repeatedly. The Nittany Lions ran for 212 yards with sack yardage removed.
The blueprint is there, should Chip Kelly decide to look it over.
Had Penn State held on, Singleton would have won Orange Bowl MVP with his 15-84-3 performance. And like Singleton, Henderson will have a backfield teammate to compete with for touchdowns.
At +1200, I’m going to side with the more explosive Ohio State back as opposed to the goal-line bell-cow (Judkins, +1800).
