Navy vs. Army Picks, Predictions | How We’re Betting Saturday’s Over/Under & Spread
Getty Images. Design by Matt Roembke/Action Network. Pictured: Bryson Daily of Army (left) and Xavier Arline of Navy (right).
Navy vs. Army Odds
| Navy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 28 -112o / -108u | +120 |
| Army Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 28 -112o / -108u | -142 |
By Dan Keegan
What’s the best rivalry in college football?
Michigan and Ohio State have played some high-stakes affairs, as have Alabama and LSU. Nothing gets the blood flowing like the chaos of an Iron Bowl in Jordan-Hare. Red River is always a classic. Kids in the '90s were raised on the round-robin trio of hate in Florida with the Gators, Noles and Canes.
But I’ll take Army-Navy.
No rivalry so mirrors the things that make college football so unique, so beautiful, so American — the history, the pageantry, the hatred birthed from shared bloodlines, and of course, the interesting schematic chess match of service academy football.
America’s Game doesn’t need extra storylines to make it compelling; the competition speaks for itself. But this year’s game has them anyway.
For Army, this game is the ultimate test for its move away from the under-center triple option.
Head coach Jeff Monken installed a shotgun-based run scheme this offseason, largely in part to gain a new schematic edge in the service academy games, where decades were of schematic similarity were reaching entropy.
Despite quarterback Bryson Daily’s tough running, Army’s offense has regressed statistically with the new style, forcing it to dabble with the old flexbone schemes in recent weeks.
But if it beats Navy and clinchs the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy, the juice will have been worth the squeeze.
On Navy’s side, this is first-year head coach Brian Newberry’s inaugural shot at Army. The Black Knights snapped Navy’s 14-year win streak in 2016 and have won five of the seven matchups since.
Newberry will rely on his defensive play-calling prowess to get Navy back in the win column.
For Navy senior quarterback Xavier Arline, this is his last chance to be a part of victory over the archrivals. He was at the helm for losses in 2020 and 2022, and was injured early and missed the bulk of the win in 2021.
This is Arline’s chance to leave his stamp in the annals of this rivalry — and a chance to stabilize a quarterback position that has been topsy-turvy for the Midshipmen all year.
Army is favored by a short number, with a total of 27.5. We have polled our staff of college football experts to reach a consensus for this special game that we will all be watching and betting.
Should you back the favored Black Knights? Has the automatic service academy under trend fully dried up? Let’s see what our staff thinks.
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Navy vs. Army Spread
Split Decision
By Dan Keegan
Our team is evenly split on how to play this spread, with an almost equal contingent on “stay away” from either side.
We've been doing these staff poll articles for two full seasons on the biggest games each week, and this is the closest ballot I have seen.
It's no surprise.
Despite Navy’s stretch of historic dominance and Army’s recent hot streak in America’s Game, these are often nip-and-tuck affairs. The things that make the service academies unique from other FBS opponents are equal here, and they share recruiting pools, coaches, team identities and even playbooks.
But you can make a case for each side to cover here, as our staff does.
Army is favored by a short margin that has gotten up to a field goal at some shops. With its new playbook, it has a schematic head start on Navy, which will be running the same offense we've seen in this game for decades.
With Bryson Daily at quarterback, the Black Knights have a stable, reliable field general that the Midshipmen lack.
Army was far more impressive than Navy against its common academy opponent, Air Force. Plus, Army has one of the best red-zone defenses, ranking 14th in Parker Fleming’s points per ECKEL (Quality Drive) metric.
On the other side of the coin, the Midshipmen have a better rush defense, ranking 32nd in Success Rate against ground attacks, while Army’s defense comes in at 93rd. For the past two years, Newberry’s defense in Annapolis has been incredible at stopping the run despite some leaks in the back end.
That’s a concern against conference opponents like SMU or UTSA; not so much against Army.
Navy has struggled with injuries this season, but it's getting healthy for this finale. Star defensive lineman Jacob Busic is returning, and Arline is expected to be a full go.
Quarterback injuries have sunk Navy this year, as it has cycled through four different signal-callers. A healthy Arline means the Midshipmen will arrive in this game with a full arsenal.
All told, our staff could not come to an agreement.
If you back Navy, you're getting points in a game that's historically as close as can be and typically a tight, low-possession affair. If you back Army, you trust the more stable quarterback situation and the new playbook.
And if you stay away from the spread, you should probably make eyes at the historically low total, where our staff is united in finding opportunity.
Navy vs. Army Over/Under
Over 27.5 | 11 Picks |
Pass | 1 Pick |
Under 27.5 | 3 Picks |
Over 27.5
By John Feltman
Running to the window during the week of Army-Navy and automatically betting the under was a tradition like no other.
Well, folks — it seems like the market has finally caught up after all of these years, as the total sits at 27.5 at most shops as of writing.
I would have to agree with our Action Network staff members that this is a year in which we should be targeting the over.
As always, it will be important to monitor the injury report considering Navy's quarterback situation is still up in the air. With a total this low, there's very little wiggle room.
For starters, in the last 30 contests between Army and Navy, the total has gone over 27.5 points 24 times, and three have landed exactly on 27.
We may see a dip in this number leading up to kickoff, so I think it would be wise to wait as long as possible.
If quarterback Braxton Woodson starts for Navy, Army's offense could receive some short fields. Woodson has a factor of explosiveness on the ground, which helps our case, but he has also made some crucial mistakes at times.
Either way, he should help push this game over the total.
On the other side, I feel especially good about Army quarterback Bryson Daily, who has attempted 105 passes on the season.
Army’s offense is in much better shape than Navy’s, and the Black Knights have shown flashes of an aerial attack at times. They still run the ball the majority of the time, but Navy’s secondary has been gashed badly all season, ranking 88th in Defensive Pass Success Rate.
The staff really likes the over in this game, and I couldn't agree more with the current total. I’d wait to see if you can get a flat 27, or perhaps a 26.5, but with the weather projected to be decent, I think this is a wise choice.
More Ways to Bet Navy vs. Army
A service academy getting points against another service academy? Sign me up. In fact, I'm going to take this one iteration further and take the plus-money dog.
Given the intense and spirited nature of this rivalry, I think there's just too much value to pass up at plus money.
The crux of my recommendation here is the intensity of the rivalry.
While I do think that Army is the slightly stronger team and bookmakers have put the right line out there, this game is just different. This is the service academy Super Bowl, and when any permutation of these schools gets together, it’s going to be a good one.
For reference, we can look at the most recent meeting between Army and Air Force on Nov. 4, when the Black Knights won outright, 23-13, as 18.5-point dogs.
Now, this isn’t necessarily an apples-to-apples comparison, but it does speak to the importance of the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy for the service academies. This will be Navy’s opportunity to spoil Army’s chance to win the trophy outright, irrespective of what transpired in the previous 14 weeks.
In terms of the matchup, I see these two programs as evenly matched. But on a neutral field, I think this game should be closer to a pick'em.
My model has Navy as less than a half-point underdog in Foxborough. This game is going to come down to grit, and I like betting Navy at plus money to take down Army and create a three-way tie for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy.
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