Welcome to our expert debate for college football Week 9 and our Navy vs. Notre Dame picks and college football predictions for which team will cover the spread.
Throughout the 2024 college football season, our betting experts will preview the biggest marquee matchups and go back and forth on the cases for both teams to cover the spread, giving you all the information you need for your college football picks.
Navy vs. Notre Dame Odds, Spread, Lines
| Navy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 52 -110o / -110u | -485 |
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 52 -110o / -110u | +425 |
Why Navy Midshipmen Can Cover the Spread
This is not your grandpa’s Naval Academy, your father’s Naval Academy, or even your two-years-older-than-you brother’s Naval Academy.
In the second year under head coach Brian Newberry, they decided to significantly change the offense and the traditional triple-option attack we have grown to know and love.
Newberry hired Drew Cronic as offensive coordinator after he served as the head coach at Mercer for four seasons.
Cronic arrived at Navy and installed a new hybrid Wing-T offensive system. He describes it as a “millennial version,” evolving to incorporate spread option principles and run-pass option schemes.
Quarterback Blake Horvath picked up the system on day one and has dominated since. Horvath has thrown 10 touchdown passes with just one interception on the season.
He's averaging nearly 150 passing yards per game and an outstanding 12.3 yards per attempt. His yards per attempt is the most of any player with at least 50 dropbacks this season.
The Midshipmen are passing the ball more than in the past, but still just enough to catch teams off guard and hit big plays when they do.
Navy ranks third in the country in Passing Explosiveness and should continue to big up chunk passing plays against a Notre Dame defense that ranks 108th in Passing Explosiveness allowed.
Eli Heidenreich is his favorite target, racking up 23 catches and over 80 yards per game. He has reeled in five touchdowns and is averaging 21.1 yards per catch.
Notre Dame has been great against the pass on a per-play basis, but Navy doesn’t run many pass plays. What it does is run just enough to pick up big plays, which has been the Irish’s biggest weakness.
The Mids have been anything but mid. They lead the entire country in EPA per Play on offense. Navy averages 44.8 points per game on the season (fourth nationally) and 7.3 yards per play (seventh).
Take everything you know about Service Academies and how they are a great bet as an underdog because they want to slow the game, limit possessions, limit mistakes, and beat you up physically.
Now, give them an elite offense.
Why Notre Dame Fighting Irish Can Cover the Spread
Wow. The United States Navy. 6-0 on the gridiron. What a remarkable accomplishment.
Is it, though? The Mids have beaten Bucknell, Temple, Memphis, UAB, Air Force and Charlotte. The win over Memphis was cool. The combined record of the other four FBS teams is 7-21. They’re in the bottom 20 nationally in strength of schedule.
Meanwhile, Notre Dame has ripped off five consecutive victories since that pathetic loss against Northern Illinois. The Irish fended off Texas A&M in Week 1, which now looks like the SEC’s best team. They’re in the top 20 nationally in strength of schedule.
Navy is good. But the Mids haven’t faced a truly elite team yet, and the sheer talent and athleticism disadvantage is bound to catch up to them.
We were all high on Navy last year. The Mids played Notre Dame in Ireland during Week 0 and smoked ‘em, winning 42-3 and holding the trio of Alex Tecza, Daba Fofana and Brandon Chatman – three of the four leading rushers for this year’s squad – to 124 yards on 33 attempts (3.7 YPC).
The Mids are in for a tough day against a real top-25 team with real top-25 talent. It’s time for a blowout loss.
Why Midshipmen Are Better Bet
Ianniello: Yes, it is remarkable. This is the first time Navy has started 6-0 since 1979.
Just because you live in Canada doesn’t mean you get to turn your nose down at America’s Naval Academy.
Navy doesn’t need to be better than Notre Dame. The Mids just can’t be two touchdowns worse. And they are not.
I think Navy might have the better quarterback in this game. Horvath has 10 touchdowns and a quarterback rating of 210.5. Leonard has thrown just six touchdowns with a quarterback rating of 130.6. Leonard has more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws. He is averaging half as many yards per attempt as Horvath.
I wanted to start with the passing attack because that change has made this team so different and is the reason for their success. But this is still a run-first service academy.
They have struggled to find success on the ground for the past few years, but that's not the case this season.
The Midshipmen rank eighth in the country in Rush Success Rate. Horvath also leads the team on the ground, averaging 103.5 yards per game with 10 rushing touchdowns. He is averaging 7.9 yards per attempt.
Ashton Jeanty is the only FBS player averaging more yards per carry than Horvath (min. 75 carries).
He isn’t alone, though. The Mids have four players averaging at least 25 yards per game on the ground, all averaging over 5.0 yards per carry. Alex Tecza leads a Navy offense that ranks fourth in the country in rushing.
Defending the rush has been a significant issue for Notre Dame this season. The Irish rank just 85th in Rush Success Rate allowed. The Midshipmen offense gets to operate behind a tremendous offensive line that ranks top 10 in the country in Line Yards.
Navy ranks sixth nationally in Success Rate on offense compared to just 76th for the Irish. The Mids want to run the ball consistently to move the chains and then pop big plays through the pass.
Notre Dame’s two biggest statistical weaknesses are Rush Success Rate allowed and Passing Explosiveness allowed.
That is exactly what Navy wants to do and does best.
Why Irish Are Better Bet
McGrath: Oh, you want to talk about explosiveness?
Jeremiyah Love and Riley Leonard have combined for over 900 rushing yards this year at over six YPC. Love’s 36 missed tackles forced ranks in the top 15 among FBS running backs. Leonard’s 25 missed tackles forced ranks sixth among FBS quarterbacks.
The Irish rank second nationally in Rush Explosiveness and 20th in EPA per Rush.
Navy ranks 98th nationally in EPA per Rush allowed because it ranks 69th in Rush Explosiveness allowed. The front seven ranks in the bottom 10 nationally in Defensive Line Yards. The Midshipmen rank sub-100th nationally in 3rd and 4th down conversion rate allowed because they rank sub-100th in Stuff Rate.
In last year’s version of Notre Dame-Navy, Love earned only four carries but took them for 40 yards. I’m fully expecting a repeat performance at a higher volume.
Talk all you want about Navy’s pass explosives, but the Mids can’t throw the ball without setting up the run first.
The Irish are a rock-solid run defense, ranking in the top 25 in EPA per Rush allowed. Linebackers Jack Kiser and Drayk Bowen have missed three tackles all season, so the team ranks in the top 15 in Rush Explosiveness allowed.
By EPA per Rush allowed, Navy’s past FBS opponents rank (nationally):
- Temple: 91st
- Memphis: 38th
- UAB: 120th
- Air Force: 74th
- Charlotte: 104th
It’s no wonder the triple-option worked against those teams. Those weak front sevens needed reinforcements in the box, thus opening downfield shots for Horvath. That won’t happen this week.
And while the Irish can give up chunk passing plays every once in a while, very few teams are as effective in coverage – they rank fourth nationally in PFF’s Coverage grades and third in EPA per Pass allowed.
Notre Dame will out-physical Navy at the line of scrimmage, and the Mids will feel the pain across the field.
Navy Spread: Why Midshipmen Will Cover
Ianniello: Let’s stop talking about last year’s game, please. This is a completely different Navy team. Last year’s team was terrible.
Now, the Mids have a new offensive coordinator, a new quarterback, and an entirely new system.
The defense is also significantly improved. The Mids have been terrific against the pass this season, ranking top 20 in Pass Success Rate allowed. Navy has allowed more than 21 points just once all season.
Even when teams can move the ball, our Department of Defense protects the promised land when it matters most. Navy ranks 20th in Defensive Finishing Drives and has the fourth-best red zone defense in the country. Just 63% of its opponent's trips to the red zone have resulted in scores, and only 42% have resulted in touchdowns.
I trust this Navy defense across all levels. They rank 15th in PFF’s Coverage Grades and 17th in PFF’s Tackling Grades.
Meanwhile, Notre Dame has dealt with injuries across the offensive line all season. The Irish rank just 93rd nationally in PFF's Pass Blocking grades. I don’t trust Leonard as a passer, especially against the defense.
If this game turns into two teams trying to run the football, that is a massive benefit to Navy. Not only do the Midshipmen run the ball better, but that will limit possessions, shorten the game, and make two touchdowns much more challenging to cover.
Notre Dame Spread: Why Irish Will Cover
McGrath: Are you sure about your power ratings?
Action Network’s betting power ratings make the Irish a 15.5-point favorite on a neutral field — which is where this game is being played. SP+ makes the Irish 19.5-point favorites in this game.
The Mids are certainly more than two touchdowns worse than the Irish because the Navy’s posted inflated stats are against a schedule that ranks three touchdowns worse.
The Mids won’t have as easy of a time averaging five yards per rush against a Notre Dame defense that grades out better than any defense they’ve played.
Of greater importance, Navy’s played a weak schedule and still been gashed by inside-zone concepts, ranking bottom-20 in Stuff Rate while allowing a 62% Success Rate in those plays.
The Irish haven’t always moved the ball consistently on the ground, but they consistently produce breakaway rush opportunities – Love averages 4.2 yards after contact, while back-up Jadarian Price averages 5.2.
Notre Dame will produce explosive drive after explosive drive, and Navy is in for a wake-up call against its toughest test yet.
I’m banking on the ship sinking.
Closing Arguments for Navy vs. Notre Dame Spread
Ianniello: Bet Navy +13.5
This is always a smash spot for Navy.
Since 2003, the Midshipmen are 30-16-3 (65.2%) against the spread when they are an underdog of double digits.
And that includes some bad Navy teams. This is the best offense we have seen from the Mids in a long time. This new element of Passing Explosiveness has completely changed the dynamic of this offense, and no team has figured it out yet.
Thirteen is way too many points for a team this good to be catching.
Back Navy. Back America.
McGrath: Bet Notre Dame -13.5
Navy’s offense is high-powered. The Mids are much better than last year.
But they haven’t become a highly touted, blue-chip roster overnight. They’re still at a major talent and athleticism disadvantage, which will eventually bite them.
I expect Horvath and Co. to move the ball in the first half. But the trouble will come after Navy’s emptied the bag and Marcus Freeman’s made adjustments. I don’t expect the Mids to keep pace off-script.
Meanwhile, Navy’s porous rush defense has no shot at stopping Notre Dame’s explosive ground game. The Irish will post explosive drive after quality drive after explosive drive in a statement three-score victory.
