The Navy Midshipmen (6-1) lost their College Football aspirations last weekend when Notre Dame took them to the woodshed. Navy entered the matchup undefeated, and despite being underdogs, many believed they had the offensive talent to hang strict with the Irish.
Four turnovers later, Navy saw those hopes and dreams disappear. They must quickly head to Houston, Texas, to take on the Rice Owls (2-6). The Owls have had a messy season, and people are still determining who will play quarterback on Saturday.
Oddsmakers have Navy listed as a 10.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 51.5. The game kicks off at 4 p.m. ET and can be streamed live on ESPN2.
Take a look further for my Navy vs Rice predictions and college football picks for this NCAAF Week 10 matchup.
Navy vs Rice Prediction
- Navy vs Rice Pick: Rice +10.5
My Navy vs Rice best bet is on the Owls to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Navy vs Rice Odds
| Navy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -112 | 48 -112o / -108u | -395 |
| Rice Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -108 | 48 -112o / -108u | +310 |
- Navy vs Rice Point Spread: Navy -10.5 (-112) · Rice +10.5 (-108)
- Navy vs Rice Total: Over/Under 48 (-112o / -108u)
- Navy vs Rice Moneyline: Navy -395 · Rice +310
Navy vs Rice Preview
Navy Midshipmen Betting Preview: What To Expect on the Road
Saturday's takeaway was that Navy could not protect the football, and the Irish took full advantage of its poor play. Returning to the box score, the Navy had 361 yards of offense but only scored 14 points.
Before their matchup against Notre Dame, the Navy offense was on fire, and the Midshipmen showed flashes last Saturday that their offense is still cooking. It is a much different opponent against the Owls, as the Navy should have more offensive success if they protect the football.
Before we overreact to last week's game, the Owls' defense is a very underrated unit. They are an excellent team that defends the run and creates havoc.
Navy ranks in the top 25 nationally in Rush Success Rate, Pass Success Rate, Finishing Drives and Quality Drives. Quarterback Blake Horvath has also found success through the air, completing 10 touchdown passes on 85 pass attempts. Unsurprisingly, he will run the ball most of the time, which is atypical of a service academy offense.
But what stuck out to me about the Navy is that they’ve been an excellent team in the Middle 8, ranking seventh nationally.
Navy's defense has been solid, ranking 19th nationally in Success Rate allowed. The Mids have played great in the secondary and held firm in the red zone.
That said, I'm concerned this could be a slow-paced game, and the Midshipmen rush defense is weak.
I am never running to the betting window to back a service Academy team laying double-digit points on the road, and I will not start here despite how impressed I have been with their team as a whole in 2024.
Rice Owls Betting Preview: Do We See Warner?
The Owls are coming off an ugly game against the Huskies last weekend, but they will be in much better shape if their starting quarterback, E.J. Warner, can suit up. If Warner plays, that will be a massive boost to the Owls.
Let’s face it, folks: Navy has had a very soft schedule in 2024. Two legitimate games have been against Notre Dame and Memphis. They allowed over 45 points in both games, so I am concerned that its defensive metrics might be slightly inflated.
Despite their soft schedule, the Midshipmen have still been gashed on the ground defensively.
The Owls do not run the ball often, ranking 131st nationally in rush rate.
That said, I think the Owls' offense will be more successful than people think. Despite a clear status update on Warner’s health, the line has already started to tumble, which leads me to believe that someone knows Warner has a good chance of suiting up.
Last week, quarterback Drew Deviller was awful. He didn’t throw a touchdown pass and is completing barely over half of his passes.
The strength of the Owls is their defense.
Last week, we saw how Navy struggled at times against Notre Dame‘s elite defense, and that should not be overlooked. The Owls are in the top 40 by most defensive metrics.
Just like Navy, the Owls have done a fantastic job in the Finishing and Quality Drives allowed department. The owls are also in the top 20 in PFF's Tackling and Coverage grades.
I’m not saying that the Owls have a chance to win outright because of the uncertainty of their offense, but I think if Woerner suits up, they have an excellent opportunity to cover the number.
Navy vs Rice
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Navy and Rice match up statistically:
Navy Offense vs. Rice Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 13 | 36 | |
| Line Yards | 33 | 81 | |
| Pass Success | 24 | 25 |  |
| Havoc | 7 | 19 | |
| Finishing Drives | 12 | 26 | |
| Quality Drives | 25 | 30 | |
Rice Offense vs. Navy Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 84 | 118 | |
| Line Yards | 71 | 127 | |
| Pass Success | 125 | 9 | |
| Havoc | 103 | 66 | |
| Finishing Drives | 101 | 46 | |
| Quality Drives | 117 | 40 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 22 | 21 |
| PFF Coverage | 25 | 16 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 102 | 114 |
| Middle 8 | 7 | 106 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.8 (120) | 26.1 (47) |
| Rush Rate | 77% (3) | 38% (131) |
Navy vs Rice Pick & Prediction
I will hold my nose and back the Owls here, despite knowing if Warner will suit up for them. Even if Warner does not play, the Owls defense will do an excellent job containing the Navy offense most of the afternoon.
Considering that Navy is one of the slowest teams on offense in the country, the possessions in the matchup should be limited.
Historically, betting service Academy teams laying double digits is a lousy bet.
I liked what I saw from most of the game against the Huskies last week on the defensive side of the ball for the Owls, so they could quickly get this game up and get a cover.
Pick: Rice +10.5 (-108, DraftKings)
Navy vs Rice Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | Rice Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 2 |
| Kickoff Time: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
Navy vs Rice will be played at Rice Stadium in Houston, Texas, on Saturday, Nov. 2 at 4 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on ESPN2.
