The Navy Midshipmen (6-2, 4-1) take on the USF Bulls (4-4, 2-2) on Saturday, Nov. 9 at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
After starting the season 6-0, the Midshipmen have suffered 2 straight losses. The first was a 51-14 beatdown at the hands of Notre Dame, which is forgivable against a potential College Football Playoff team. The subsequent 24-10 upset against Rice was less forgiveable.
USF, meanwhile, has won two in a row, most recently toppling in-state foe FAU by a score of 44-21.
Still, Navy enters as a -3.5 favorite with an over/under of 56.5. So, where does the betting value lie in Saturday's American Athletic Conference clash?
Let's dive into my Navy vs USF predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 9.
Navy vs USF Betting Odds
| Navy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 58 -110 / -110 | -190 |
| USF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 58 -110 / -110 | +160 |
- Navy vs USF Spread: Navy -4 (-110) · USF +4 (-110)
- Navy vs USF Over/Under: 58 Points
- Navy vs USF Moneyline: Navy -190 · USF +160
Navy vs South Florida Prediction
Prediction
My USF vs. Navy best bet is on the Bulls to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Moneyline
PASS
Against the spread
Navy vs USF Pick: USF +3.5
Over/Under
PASS
Navy Midshipmen vs South Florida Bulls College Football Betting Preview
I still think Navy is overvalued in the market after its red-hot start both straight up and against the spread, while USF looks like a buy-on team after a disappointing start to the season.
The Mids no doubt have exceeded all expectations so far, but they also benefited early in the season from the element of surprise with their new-look offense under coordinator Drew Cronic against a laughable schedule that still ranks outside the top 120 nationally — almost 50 spots worse than South Florida's.
They also enjoyed an abundance of good fortune in many of the ancillary areas such as red-zone production and turnovers.
Some of that regression has naturally hit over their past two games (both losses), and there's likely more coming in a tough situational spot.
From a matchup perspective, USF's run defense has the chops to slow down Navy on the ground. On the season, the Bulls rank in the top 15 nationally in both EPA per Rush and Rush Success Rate.
The Midshipmen could hit some explosive plays through the air against a vulnerable Bulls secondary with particularly poor safety play.
However, I'm also not sure how healthy quarterback Blake Horvath is after suffering a thumb injury against Notre Dame. Horvath has thrown 10 touchdowns to just three interceptions despite 10 turnover-worthy plays. per PFF, so there could be some more coming.
His production has also dipped precipitously when under pressure, which could be problematic against USF's defensive front.
On the other side of the ball, USF had to deal with a quarterback change after original starter Byrum Brown went down with a foot injury.
New starter Bryce Archie struggled out of the gates as expected but has slowly shown signs of improvement as he adjusts to the offense.
However, the strength of the offense still lies in the backfield with a deep stable of backs who should capitalize on a very vulnerable Navy run defense that ranks 120th in Rush Success Rate.
The USF offensive line is also trending in the right direction, especially after making some changes in the interior. They should generate a push up front to open up holes for Kelley Joiner and company.
Navy vs USF Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Navy and USF match up statistically:
Navy Offense vs. USF Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 17 | 17 |  |
| Line Yards | 36 | 16 | |
| Pass Success | 56 | 106 | |
| Havoc | 10 | 35 | |
| Finishing Drives | 15 | 84 | |
| Quality Drives | 44 | 64 | |
USF Offense vs. Navy Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 108 | 115 | |
| Line Yards | 66 | 119 | |
| Pass Success | 119 | 13 | |
| Havoc | 70 | 69 | |
| Finishing Drives | 86 | 44 | |
| Quality Drives | 126 | 40 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 14 | 66 |
| PFF Coverage | 20 | 103 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 111 | 10 |
| Middle 8 | 6 | 113 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.6 (117) | 21.3 (1) |
| Rush Rate | 76% (3) | 53% (77) |
How To Make College Football Picks For My Navy vs South Florida Prediction
This is a tough situational spot for Navy.
While USF, which hasn't left the state of Florida since September, has an extra day of rest and preparation — which is key against a unique offense — Navy will play its third-straight game away from home with the latter coming at Rice after a lengthy delay late into the night.
Plus, the Bulls also have a number of matchup advantages, ranking int he top 15 in two key run-stopping stats.
It might not mean a lot, but USF is 12-2 as a short dog (less than six points) over the past 10 seasons, covering by 10 points per game.
For what it's worth, I project this game closer to a pick'em than a field goal, so I'll take the points with the home 'dog here.
Pick: USF +3.5 (-110, bet365) | Play to +3 (-110)
Navy vs USF Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 9 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
Navy takes on USF on Saturday, Nov. 9 in Tampa at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Navy vs USF Betting Trends
- 97% of bets and 100% of the money are on Navy to cover the spread
- 80% of bets and 80% of the money on the moneyline are on Navy to win outright
- 72% of bets and 77% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Navy vs USF Weather
