Navy vs. Kansas State Odds, Pick
- Odds: Navy -2.5
- Over/Under: 52.5
- Time: Tuesday, 3:45 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
- Location: Memphis, Tenn.
Navy vs. Kansas State odds via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
Collin Wilson: Is This Over/Under Too Low?
The Liberty Bowl features two teams that put together bounce-back seasons. Navy contended for the AAC and won the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy, while Kansas State enjoyed a successful first season under new head coach Chris Klieman, highlighted by an upset over Oklahoma.
One thing to keep in mind is that the Wildcats should have some familiarity with Air Force's triple-option offense. Defensive coordinator Scottie Hazelton used to hold the same position at Wyoming and Klieman faced plenty of FCS triple-option attacks when he was at North Dakota State.
Even with some triple-option experience on their sidelines, the Wildcats may struggle to stop Malcolm Perry and the Midshipmen. Kansas State's defense finished 79th in rushing success rate, 109th in power success rate and 111th against rushing explosiveness. The Wildcats have been sturdy with their backs against the goal line, ranking 14th in finishing drives, but Navy's offense is the best in the country by that same metric.
The Wildcats also boast some advantages on offense, specifically in the passing game. Kansas State isn't a pass-heavy team, but it may want to throw more considering it ranks 32nd in passing explosiveness. Other passing offenses like SMU, Notre Dame and Houston had a lot of success throwing on the Midshipmen.
Live betting the site at +3 or better may be the best option for either team, but I do think there's an angle on the Over/Under.
Our projected total for this game sits at 55 points, meaning there's value on the over at the current price. Considering that each offense can exploit the opposite defense, I think this game will feature plenty of points despite featuring two of the slowest offenses in college football.
Pick: Over 52.5 or better
