Tulane vs. Navy Odds
| Tulane Odds | -6.5 [Bet Now] |
| Navy Odds | +6.5 [Bet Now] |
| Over/Under | 47.5 [Bet Now] |
| Time | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Games involving service academies generally don't need any external factors to produce a run-heavy on-field product. And as such, their totals tend to be on the lower side.
Today's Navy vs. Tulane over/under, for example, is the lowest offering on the board at a consensus 47. But it wasn't always quite that low. That's because, in this case, there is an external factor that could make this an even more run-heavy game.
And that factor is the weather.
Navy vs. Tulane Weather Report
As of Saturday morning, forecasts are calling for rain to go along with 17-mph winds throughout the afternoon in New Orleans. And it's the latter element that's really been the influencer in college football betting.
In our database (since 2005), college football games that have seen average wind speeds of at least 13 MPH have hit the under at a 57% clip on a sample of almost 1,000 games. The 544-415-35 record to the under has produced 97.4 units of profit for a 9.8% return on investment.
And that makes sense. With passing plays being made more difficult, not only are the number of explosive plays cut down, but the ball remaining on the ground ensures that the clock will continue to run throughout the game. Field goals, of course, also see a significant bump in difficulty.
This total opened at 50.5, and was sitting at 47.5/48 at the start of the day. And with the forecast becoming more clear (that it won't be clear) as kickoff approaches, it's continued its drop this morning, now sitting at a consensus 47, with several shops down to just 46.5.
Fifty-six percent of bettors accounting for 77% of actual money have taken the under. And if you wish to join them in following the weather, be sure to shop around. While most books are now at 47 or below, DraftKings is still offering a now rare 47.5 as of 9 a.m. ET.
