We have an ACC duel on September 21 (12 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN+) when the NC State Wolfpack (2-1) head to Death Valley to take on the Clemson Tigers (1-1).
It hasn’t been the most leisurely start to the season for the Wolfpack. They may be one game above .500 now, but the loss came in a brutalizing defeat to Tennessee, along with a couple of wins in closer-than-preferred battles to Western Carolina and Louisiana Tech.
Clemson had itself an early bye after getting destroyed by Georgia in Week 1 before notching a win vs. App State in Week 2.
There were a lot of high hopes for the Tigers (like there seems to be every year) and there’s still time for them to come true, but Clemson is a confusing team that seems to struggle against higher-end programs.
The Tigers are 20.5-point favorites on the spread against NC State while the total sits at 46.5. Clemson is also -1200 on the moneyline.
Where does the betting value lie in this ACC matchup? Read more for my NC State vs Clemson prediction.
NC State vs Clemson Prediction
- NC State vs Clemson Pick: Over 46.5
My NC State vs Clemson best bet is on the over, with the best line currently available at Caesars, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
NC State vs Clemson Odds
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+20.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +750 |
| Clemson Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-20.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -1200 |
- NC State vs Clemson Point Spread: NC State +20.5 (-110) · Clemson -20.5 (-110)
- NC State vs Clemson Total: Over/Under 46.5 (-110o / -110u)
- NC State vs Clemson Moneyline: NC State +750 · Clemson +1200
NC State vs Clemson Preview
NC State Wolfpack Betting Preview: Pup Leading the Pack
It seemed as if things were going from bad to worse. Against Louisiana Tech, the Wolfpack were down 7-6, and then Grayson McCall got hurt. It inevitably forced freshman CJ Bailey into the fire, where he picked the Pack and led them to victory.
Bailey initially looked a little out of sorts, and it’s hard to blame him. However, after gathering himself at halftime, Bailey became the leader of the Pack, completing 12-of-18 passes for 144 yards while also running in a touchdown of his own.
McCall will come back, but it’s Bailey’s time to shine for now. With that comes some shiny toys to play with. I’ve always been a big Kevin Concepcion fan — he’s an explosive talent who has struggled since his massive Week 1.
Behind Concepcion, Justin Joly and Dacari Collins are making cases to be the program's WR1. It’s a true committee in the receiver room, as NC State ranks 51st in Passing Down Success Rate and 46th in Passing Success Rate.
Concepcion’s struggles aren’t the only black eye since Week 1. The run game hasn’t been much better. Jordan Waters dominated in Week 1 but has been invisible since. Kendrick Raphael and Hollywood Smothers have become the more efficient backs in Raleigh, but the team ranks 115th in Rush Success Rate and 95th in Rush PPA.
I’m a little concerned about the defense, though. NC State hasn’t had a game allowing under 20 points, and its two opponents are FCS Western Carolina and Louisiana Tech, whose underlying numbers are dreadful.
Defensively, this program is ranked 87th in Havoc and lets up loads of explosive plays (ranked 130th in Passing Down Explosiveness allowed).
Clemson Tigers Betting Preview: Contender or Pretender?
Clemson is such a fascinating program, and I still don’t know what to make of it.
Cade Klubnik looks really good, though. He’s completing passes at an astounding 76% rate. I’ve always been iffy on Klubnik, but even after Week 1's blowout, those numbers are no joke.
In addition, Clemson is 37th in Pass Success Rate but terrible in Passing Down metrics (121st in Success Rate).
Klubnik has some solid options, mainly in Jake Briningstool and Antonio Williams, who have accounted for nearly 40% of the targets. But they’re efficient, both averaging 13 yards per catch.
Phil Mafah is the bell-cow back. Clemson’s only played two games, but Mafah is averaging a stunning 6.8 yards per carry. However, he’s the only one seeing the bulk of the carries.
The Tigers own the nation's 69th-best rushing attack and rank 37th in PPA. Mafah, though, has already shown he’s capable of the explosive play, so he’s someone Dabo Swinney can count on.
Defensively, Clemson is a bit of a joke. The Tigers do well at generating Havoc, but that’s quite literally the only thing they do. They’re tied for 100th nationally in Success Rate allowed, 121st in Passing Down Success Rate allowed, and 98th in Rush Success Rate allowed.
How can you expect to be a top-tiered program with those types of horrible numbers?
NC State vs Clemson
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how NC State and Clemson match up statistically:
NC State Offense vs. Clemson Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 115 | 98 | |
| Line Yards | 104 | 129 | |
| Pass Success | 46 | 94 | |
| Havoc | 132 | 32 | |
| Finishing Drives | 115 | 110 | |
| Quality Drives | 80 | 98 | |
Clemson Offense vs. NC State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 69 | 50 | |
| Line Yards | 52 | 101 | |
| Pass Success | 37 | 51 | |
| Havoc | 69 | 78 | |
| Finishing Drives | 27 | 64 | |
| Quality Drives | 29 | 111 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 57 | 74 |
| PFF Coverage | 40 | 61 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 34 | 65 |
| Middle 8 | 127 | 126 |
| Seconds per Play | 31.4 (126) | 28.2 (75) |
| Rush Rate | 51% (79) | 46% (107) |
NC State vs Clemson Pick & Prediction
I look at both of these rosters and there’s one common trend: poor defense.
NC State is going to let up a lot of points. It crumbled to the Vols and letting up 20-plus to Louisiana Tech and Western Carolina is inexcusable.
Meanwhile, I can see Clemson scoring a ton of points. Klubnik has shown a knack for efficiency with the weapons he has. I can also see Mafah stomping a mudhole in the Wolfpack’s defensive corps. While NC State does a fine job at stopping the run, it’s privy to explosive plays.
Bet this game to go over the total. I expect a lot of defenders to get cooked in this bout.
Pick: Over 46.5
How to Watch NC State vs Clemson Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Memorial Stadium, Clemson, SC |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 21 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC |
NC State vs Clemson Betting Trends
- 51% of tickets generated and 67% of the money is targeted for Clemson to cover.
- 51% of tickets and 29% of the money are aimed towards the over.
