Friday. Night. Lights.
There's something special about watching college football under the lights, and Week 5's slate is no different.
First, the Virginia Tech Hokies take on the Miami Hurricanes in an ACC clash. Then, to end the night, the Washington Huskies face the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in a cross-country Big Ten Conference clash.
So, let's enjoy these Friday Night Lights while we can.
Check out our NCAAF odds and picks from Brett Pund and Cody Goggin below.
NCAAF Odds, Picks for Friday, Sept. 27
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Virginia Tech vs. Miami Picks
No. 7 Miami hosts Virginia Tech at Hard Rock Stadium on Friday night to open Atlantic Coast Conference play.
The Hurricanes have been one of the most dominant teams through four weeks, owning a 4-0 record and averaging over 50 points per game.
Meanwhile, the Hokies (2-2) haven't lived up to the preseason hype, dropping games to Vanderbilt and Rutgers.
Virginia Tech Hokies Football
Coming into the season, Virginia Tech was a popular pick to win the conference and make a run at the College Football Playoff. The Hokies brought back 21 starters from a team that won five of its final seven games a year ago.
However, it hasn't gone according to plan for coach Brent Pry’s team. The season started with a disappointing loss at Vanderbilt in the opener, then Virginia Tech dropped its final non-conference matchup to Rutgers last week.
Luckily for Virginia Tech, neither of those defeats came in ACC play. So, everything is still in front of the Hokies to make a run at the conference title.
If that is going to happen, Pry needs running back Bhayshul Tuten to continue to play well. Tuten racked up three touchdowns against Rutgers and has eight scores on the year.
On the defensive side of the ball, Antwaun Powell-Ryland has been the King of Sacksburg. He leads the FBS in sacks with six, and the Hokies are tied for 10th in the country in sacks as a team.
Miami Hurricanes Football
If the notion is that Virginia Tech hasn’t lived up to preseason expectations, the same can't be said for Miami. Coach Mario Cristobal has the Hurricanes rolling.
It started with the dominant opening-week victory on the road at in-state rival Florida. The wins that have followed have come against weaker opposition, but you can’t argue with how Miami has played.
In the four victories, the average margin of victory has been 42 points. This mark only trails Ole Miss, Tennessee, Ohio State and Texas this season.
Outside of the team’s media attention, quarterback Cam Ward is starting to gain traction as the potential Heisman Trophy winner. In fact, the former Washington State quarterback is the favorite at FanDuel to win the award.
If he continues his current pace, he’ll have a great shot to receive an invite to New York and lead his team to the CFP.
Virginia Tech vs. Miami Predictions
For this game, I think the line has gone a bit too far on Miami, but I’m also not looking to back the visitors. It ultimately comes down to the right way to back the favorite, and I feel I've found that.
So, my best bet is for the Hurricanes to fly over their team total in the first half, which is set at 19.5 points at DraftKings at -130 odds. I would play this up to 20.5 at -120.
For starters, Miami has topped this in every opening half so far this season.
Meanwhile, the Hokies have struggled at the start of games. Against both Power 4 opponents, they were losing at halftime — by 14 points at Vanderbilt and nine against Rutgers.
It also doesn’t help that Virginia Tech's defense is ranked outside the top 65 in both pass success and PFF’s coverage rating.
Speaking of the defense, it could have a sluggish start after being on the field for most of last week's loss as the Scarlet Knights' offense won the time-of-possession battle and had the ball for over 39 minutes.
I know there are fears of bad weather rolling through this area of the country, but it should be beyond Miami by the opening kick. So, I’m expecting Ward and the Hurricanes to keep their fine season going.
Pick: Miami 1H Team Total Over 19.5 (Play to 20.5)
| |
Washington vs. Rutgers Picks
The Washington Huskies will travel across the country to Piscataway, New Jersey, to take on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights this Friday evening. This game is set to kick off at 8 p.m. ET on FOX.
Rutgers enters as a -2 favorite with an over/under of 44.5 points. So, where does the betting value lie in this cross-country Big Ten Conference clash?
Washington Huskies Football
Washington came into this season with a lot of questions surrounding its roster, coaching staff and even how it would hold up in the Big Ten.
With so much new around this program following a National Championship appearance, plenty still remains unanswered through four games.
Not much can be taken away from the Huskies' first couple of games from this season, but the last two have been more notable.
First, the Huskies fell in an early-season Apple Cup matchup against Washington State by a score of 24-19, and then they dominated Northwestern last weekend, 24-5.
In every game this season, Washington’s postgame win expectancy has been by a larger margin than the actual final score, per ESPN's Bill Connelly. This suggests that Washington has been even better than these final scores suggest.
Washington ranks 10th in Offensive Success Rate and 53rd in Finishing Drives this season, likely due to a mark of 128th in average field position.
The Huskies still lean heavier toward the pass, throwing the ball 53% of the time. When they put the ball on the air, they rank 19th in Success Rate and 15th in Passing PPA.
They've been strong running the ball as well, ranking eighth in Success Rate and 21st in PPA. However, this offense has lacked big-play ability, ranking 99th in overall explosiveness this season.
Defensively, the Huskies have been solid against the pass, but the run defense has been an issue. Washington ranks fifth in Passing PPA Allowed but 84th in Rushing PPA Allowed.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights Football
Rutgers has moved to 3-0 after a big road win over Virginia Tech last weekend. The Scarlet Knights seem to be moving in the right direction as a program, and a win against Washington this weekend would be huge for them.
Rutgers has been the better team in all three of its wins this season, with the closest adjusted margin being eight points against Virginia Tech.
The Scarlet Knights rank fourth in Offensive Success Rate, 20th in Finishing Drives and 13th in Havoc Allowed this year.
This is largely due to their run game, which ranks 15th in Success Rate and 38th in PPA. They run the ball 66% of the time (eighth in the nation) but are just 116th in rushing explosiveness.
When it's had to pass, Rutgers has ranked seventh in Passing Success Rate and 20th in passing PPA. New transfer quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis has completed 63% of his passes for 646 yards, six touchdowns and just one interception while averaging 0.17 EPA per Dropback this season.
The Rutgers defense ranks 29th in Success Rate and 36th in Opponent Finishing Drives this season. Its passing defense comes in at sixth in PPA, but the run defense sits just 97th in that area with a mark of 114th in explosiveness allowed.
Washington vs. Rutgers Predictions
Rutgers is a great story, and this home atmosphere should be a good one on Friday night. However, I think Washington is the better team, even on the road, and would take it to win this game outright.
I trust Will Rogers and the Huskies’ passing game more than Kaliakmanis. I'd rather take the better quarterback here.
Pick: Washington +2.5 (Play to -2.5)
