We begin the NCAAF Week 2 slate with predictions and three Saturday afternoon betting spots, featuring Iowa State vs. Iowa.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 2, here's the full piece. And here's my college football picks and predictions for Saturday afternoon.
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: N/A
College Football Picks, Predictions: Stuckey's 3 Afternoon Bets
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Syracuse +3 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Iowa State +3 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Northern Illinois +29.5 |
Syracuse +3 vs. Georgia Tech
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ACC Network
After the initial market move, Syracuse catching a field goal at home caught my attention.
Coming into the season, I was lower than the market on the Orange; hence, the reason I bet their season win total under.
I also wasn't overly impressed with their effort last week. While they should've covered every number if not for a late phantom flag, they really struggled to defend the run, allowing Northwestern transfer Anthony Tyus to amass over 200 yards on the ground on just 16 carries.
The Syracuse defenders really struggled to set the edge against the Bobcats, which is certainly a bit alarming with the vaunted Georgia Tech rushing attack up next, especially since Cuse lost star linebacker Marlowe Wax for the next six weeks to injury.
However, I'd expect Syracuse to clean up some of the issues it had up front after the first real action under a brand new staff and scheme.
Kyle McCord is undoubtedly an upgrade at quarterback for what the Orange had under center in 2023. He got away with some throws in the opener (four turnover-worthy plays) but certainly has plenty of skill-position talent to work with across the board.
It has to be noted that Georgia Tech's season-opening win over Florida State doesn't look as impressive after seeing how poor the lifeless Noles looked during Monday night's loss to Boston College.
And while Tech did cover (barely) against Georgia State, the brand-new Panthers had terrible luck all night long.
Here are some highlights from just the first 30 minutes of gameplay:
- First Drive of the Game: No points from first-and-goal from the 1-yard line
- Second Drive of the Game: Fumbled snap at own 20, leading to a GT touchdown on fourth down
- Later in First Half: Settled for a field goal after first-and-goal from the 3-yard line
- Final Minute of First Half: GT fourth-down touchdown
Despite all of that misfortune, they still trailed by just 11 at the half — and then even failed to score again late in the game after another goal-to-go situation. Three total points on 12 plays inside the 10 across three separate drives. Yes, I'm still bitter.
Don't forget the Yellow Jackets were favored by only six at home last season when Cuse — with a less talented roster than this season — started a tight end at quarterback.
Lastly, Syracuse holds a situational edge, getting to start the season with its second straight home game. Conversely, Georgia Tech will play its third overall, having gone from Ireland to Atlanta to central New York at potentially the peak of its market value.
Trending: Since taking over as interim head coach for Georgia Tech in 2022, Brent Key owns a sparkling 12-3 ATS record as an underdog but has gone just 2-5 ATS as a favorite.
Notable Nugget
Since taking over as interim head coach for Georgia Tech in 2022, Brent Key owns a sparkling 12-3 ATS record as an underdog but has gone just 2-5 ATS as a favorite.
Pick: Syracuse +3 or Better
Iowa State +3 at Iowa
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS
I did take a field goal with Iowa State early in the week as one of the games I had circled in the 71st battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy. This game always seems to come down to the wire with eight of the past 12 meetings being decided by a one-possession margin.
However, I'm actually going to come back for some on the other side, which I'll touch on a bit.
For reference, all of my initial spots that I had circled and bet myself will always make this piece. I also wanted to share my thought process for some who may find it helpful since my ultimate goal in writing these games up is to help people potentially decide on their own whether or not to pass or play on a specific game.
Initially, this wasn't that advanced of a handicap. I just simply priced it closer to a coin-flip than a field goal in a game with an especially low total.
That certainly makes the field-goal spread more important in a matchup where points should certainly come at a premium.
You might see this week that this rivalry has amazingly gone under in 17 of the past 19 meetings. However, markets do evolve and over half (10-of-19) of those contests would have exceeded the current total of 36.5.
And while I do need to see more than one half against an FCS team before I completely buy into an Iowa offensive renaissance, it should look much more competent (and vertical) under new offensive coordinator Tim Lester.
The Hawkeyes started slow last week but exploded in the second half, aided by running back Kaleb Johnson returning from his first-half suspension.
There were definitely some promising signs with Iowa amassing the most yards in a single game in five seasons. True freshman Reece Vander Zee also caught two touchdowns — one fewer than the entire wide receiver room hauled in during the 2023 season.
As I alluded to off the top, I'm buying back part of my position with Iowa ML (Hawkeyes by 1-3 please?) for a third of my original bet after re-watching Iowa State's opener and breaking down this matchup further. That will happen occasionally in this gig.
First off, I'm very worried about the linebacker position with Will McLaughlin and now Caleb Bacon — the primary communicator and arguably Iowa State's most important defender — out for an extended period with a leg injury suffered in the opener.
I'm not too keen on the replacements, which could end up costing the Cyclones, who have some other potential lingering injuries.
Additionally, Iowa State's offense operated at its peak last season when it hit explosive plays. Well, no defense in the country excels more at limiting those on an annual basis than Phil Parker's stop unit.
As a result, I have real concerns about whether or not Iowa State can operate with adequate efficiency on a down-to-down basis.
That's exactly what plagued the Cyclones in last season's five regular-season losses, where they averaged just 15.4 points per game against some of the better defenses on their schedule.
With all of that said, this probably comes down to a fluke turnover or special teams play, which Iowa does seem to benefit from more frequently than its opponents under Kirk Ferentz.
Notable Nugget
For what it's worth, Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell has been a cash cow as an underdog of three-plus points at 31-16 ATS (66%) — the fifth most-profitable coach in our Action Labs database since 2005, trailing only Chris Creighton, Ken Niumatalolo, Matt Rhule and Bill Snyder. Interestingly enough, the first two are also underdogs of more than a field goal this week.
Pick: Iowa State +3 or Better · (Smaller Play)
Northern Illinois +29.5 at Notre Dame
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ NBC
Given the circumstances surrounding its super raw offensive line with six career FBS starts, Notre Dame had one of the more impressive wins of Week 1 on the road at Texas A&M.
Consequently, the Irish, who could be favored in all 11 remaining games, find themselves as significant favorites to make the College Football Playoff.
Therefore, I wouldn't be shocked if they're a little fat and happy out of the gates after such an emotional victory.
Meanwhile, a lot of these kids for NIU should be juiced up to play Notre Dame — a team that likely passed on many of NIU's regional kids on the recruiting trail.
And while not super predictive, the Huskies have at least historically demonstrated they can exceed oddsmakers' expectations as an underdog against power-conference opponents with a 20-11 ATS record (64.5%) since 2005.
Over the past three seasons alone, this senior-laden bunch pulled off road upsets over Boston College (-9) and Georgia Tech (-22) and also stayed within one possession of Kentucky as four-touchdown pups.
Plus, those Notre Dame offensive line issues haven't gone anywhere.
But, more importantly, NIU features an extremely run-heavy, slower offense, which should limit the number of possessions, making the task of covering four touchdowns a bit more arduous for the Fighting Irish.
I did have concerns about the quarterback position for NIU coming into the season, but at least Ethan Hampton fared very well in the opener — albeit against shoddy competition.
Meanwhile, the defense should be one of the better units in the MAC with an abundance of experience and returning production. They can at least provide some resistance when Notre Dame has the ball.
I hoped this line would hit 31, but it just never got there before coming back down.
I'm still OK with anything over four touchdowns in a good situational spot with a fairly low total (45.5) against a Notre Dame squad I just don't have many qualms fading as a large favorite following a physical brawl in College Station.
Notable Nugget
Following a win over a ranked opponent, favorites of more than three touchdowns playing the following week against FBS competition have gone 81-105-2 (43.5%) ATS over the past 20 seasons. This trend also applies to USC against Utah State.
Pick: Northern Illinois +28.5 or Better
