We start the Week 11 college football slate with my three Saturday noon spots, includingNCAAF picks and predictions for Saturday, November 9.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 11, here's the full piece.
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: 44-35-1 (55.7%)
- Overall: 143-105-2 (57.7%)
Stuckey's NCAAF Picks for Week 11 Noon Games
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Rutgers +6.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Boston College -2 |
  | 12 p.m. | USF +3 |
Rutgers +6.5 vs. Minnesota
12 p.m. ET ⋅ NBC
I've loved backing Minnesota over the past month, but it's time to finally jump ship.
Additionally, I've wanted no part of Rutgers during its free fall, but I think this is the perfect time to buy low on the Scarlet Knights while simultaneously selling high on the Gophers.
This is also a favorable scheduling spot for Rutgers in an important game for its bowl eligibility hopes. It will come off a bye, which is critical for a team that has been riddled with injuries. Greg Schiano's bunch should come in much healthier in this spot.
Moreover, both of his assistants have a ton of familiarity with Minnesota under PJ Fleck, which should help even more with preparation during the off week.
Meanwhile, Minny will hit the road for its second straight road game after four straight victories — three of which came by one possession in favorable situational spots against opponents dealing with key injuries.
After securing bowl eligibility and with a home date against Penn State on deck, this noon kick at a reeling Rutgers squad sets up as a potential sleepy spot.
From a matchup standpoint, the Rutgers run defense has been absolutely horrid. On the season, it ranks 134th in EPA per Rush allowed and 124th in Rush Success Rate. Well, it might get a break this week against a Minnesota offense that has been much less efficient in the run game, ranking outside the top 100 nationally in both categories.
You also want to attack this Minny defense on the ground, which is where Rutgers wants to live. I'm just hoping stud running back Kyle Monangai is healthy enough to suit up.
I think there's a good shot we've reached the bottom of the market on Rutgers and the peak on Minnesota.
Lastly, the Gophers also boast a whopping +12 turnover margin on the season, so there's certainly some looming turnover regression.
Notable Nugget
With more than 10 days to prepare against FBS foes, Schiano is 12-5 ATS (75%), covering by nearly 10 points per game.
Projection: Rutgers +4.8
Pick: Rutgers +6.5 or Better
Note: I'm going to wait to see if a 7 pops. Follow along on the app to see when I log this bet.
| | |
Boston College -2 vs. Syracuse
12 p.m. ET ⋅ The CW
In my list of most overrated teams in the country, Syracuse sits close to the top. The Orange come into this game at 6-2 but have gone 4-1 in one-possession games with a pair of those wins coming in overtime.
That includes last week's crazy comeback at home against a Virginia Tech team down its starting quarterback and stud running back amongst other injuries.
The Orange have also gone 14-for-19 on fourth downs, which doesn't seem sustainable for a team that can't really run the ball consistently. In fact, the underlying data on both sides of the ball suggests looming late-down regression.
While Syracuse was in a fight to the end of overtime last week, Boston College enjoyed a bye week, which should enable the Eagles to come into this game a bit healthier overall.
They will actually even have 15 days of preparation since they last played two Fridays ago in a four-point loss to Louisville. I think that's even more beneficial here since I give the coaching schematic edge to BC.
The Eagles should hold a major edge at the line of scrimmage on offense, enabling them to finally get their run game going against a very porous Syracuse run defense, especially in terms of setting the edge. That's problematic against the mobile Thomas Castellanos.
That should lead to some open-shot plays off of play-action — where Castellanos has been nearly flawless with seven touchdowns to no interceptions with a nearly 80% Adjusted Completion Rate — against a lackluster Syracuse pass defense that will give up explosives.
While I could see Syracuse coming out a bit flat for this noon kick in Chestnut Hill, especially after just getting to bowl eligibility, I expect Boston College to come out inspired (and with a great script) in a massive game for its postseason chances.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, Syracuse is 10-22 ATS (31.3%) as a conference road dog in the months of November and December.
Projection: Boston College -3
Pick: Boston College ML (Play to -2)
USF +3 vs. Navy
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2
I still think Navy is overvalued in the market after its red-hot start both SU and ATS, while USF looks like a buy-on team after a disappointing start to the season.
The Mids no doubt have exceeded all expectations so far, but they also benefited early in the season from the element of surprise with their new-look offense under coordinator Drew Cronic against a laughable schedule that still ranks outside the top 120 nationally — almost 50 spots worse than South Florida's.
They also enjoyed an abundance of good fortune in many of the ancillary areas such as red-zone production and turnovers.
Some of that regression has naturally hit over their past two games (both losses), and there's likely more coming in a tough situational spot.
While USF, which hasn't left the state of Florida since September, has an extra day of rest and preparation — which is key against a unique offense — Navy will play its third-straight game away from home with the latter coming at Rice after a lengthy delay late into the night.
From a matchup perspective, USF's run defense has the chops to slow down Navy on the ground. On the season, the Bulls rank in the top 15 nationally in both EPA per Rush and Rush Success Rate.
The Midshipmen could hit some explosive plays through the air against a vulnerable Bulls secondary with particularly poor safety play.
However, I'm also not sure how healthy quarterback Blake Horvath is after suffering a thumb injury against Notre Dame. Horvath has thrown 10 touchdowns to just three interceptions despite 10 turnover-worthy plays. per PFF, so there could be some more coming.
His production has also dipped precipitously when under pressure, which could be problematic against USF's defensive front.
On the other side of the ball, USF had to deal with a quarterback change after original starter Byrum Brown went down with a foot injury.
New starter Bryce Archie struggled out of the gates as expected but has slowly shown signs of improvement as he adjusts to the offense.
However, the strength of the offense still lies in the backfield with a deep stable of backs who should capitalize on a very vulnerable Navy run defense that ranks 120th in Rush Success Rate.
The USF offensive line is also trending in the right direction, especially after making some changes in the interior. They should generate a push up front to open up holes for Kelley Joiner and company.
Notable Nugget
USF is 12-2 as a short dog (less than six points) over the past 10 seasons, covering by 10 points per game. This is essentially meaningless, but I had nothing else.
Projection: South Florida +0.4
Pick: USF +3 or Better
