We start the Week 12 college football slate with my three Saturday noon spots, includingNCAAF picks and predictions for Saturday, November 16.
Let's get into it.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 12, here's the full piece.
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: 53-39-1 (57.6%)
- Overall: 152-109-2 (58.2%)
Stuckey's NCAAF Picks for Week 12 Noon Games
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Northwestern +30.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Arkansas +14.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | UMass +14.5 |
Northwestern +30.5 vs. Ohio State
12 p.m. ET ⋅ Big Ten Network ⋅ Wrigley Field
How much does Ohio State really care about this game with Indiana and rival Michigan on deck? Its Big Ten title hopes (and chance at a bye in the College Football Playoff) will essentially come down to next week's marquee matchup with the Hoosiers, who will enjoy the benefit of a bye this week.
As a result, I'm not sure Ryan Day and company will want to show much and will likely focus on staying healthy and resting up once they build a sizable lead.
Meanwhile, Northwestern is still fighting for bowl eligibility and should come out with a game effort out of the bye week.
The Wildcats offense is extremely limited, but they do have a top-30 defense that does an outstanding job of limiting explosives.
Ultimately, they should make Ohio State work for their points, which should, in essence, help shrink this game. That's an ideal formula for a conference underdog of more than four touchdowns with a low total.
This is purely a hold-your-nose special in a good situational spot, as I'm not sure you get the sharpest Ohio State effort for a sleepy noon kick at Wrigley Field, especially with bigger fish to fry coming up next.
And while Northwestern will have a hard time moving the ball, maybe it can turn one or two red-zone trips into touchdowns. Ohio State's defense is elite, but it has also been extremely fortunate inside the 20, allowing the fewest points per trip in the nation.
Notable Nugget
This will mark only the second time Northwestern has caught over four touchdowns since 2005.
The only other instance occurred back in 2022, also at home against Ohio State, which only won 21-7 in a wind-filled game as a 37.5-point favorite.
Since 2020, conference home underdogs catching 30-plus points have gone 10-3 ATS. Since 2010, in conference games with a spread of more than 30 and total of 46 or less, the over has gone 36-8.
Projection: Northwestern +27.8
Pick: Northwestern +30.5 (Play to +28.5)
| | |
Arkansas +14.5 vs. Texas
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
Are we 100% positive Texas is in the elite tier of college football this year to warrant laying over two touchdowns at Arkansas? The Longhorns very well could be, but they don't have many rock-solid data points with a strength of schedule that sits outside the top-50 nationally.
They played a decimated Florida squad starting a third-string quarterback last week, and prior to that result, every power conference team on their schedule has had massive struggles outside of Vanderbilt and Georgia.
Well, the Commodores only lost by three at home, while the Bulldogs won by double-digits in Austin. Of the eight SEC teams ranked in the current top 25, Texas has only played one and lost in convincing fashion in that game on their home field.
Arkansas has had its moments this season, highlighted by an upset win over Tennessee, but the Razorbacks did also get blown out by LSU and Ole Miss at home in large part due to extreme struggles in coverage.
That's obviously my biggest concern against Texas' speed. Head coach Sam Pittman stated they're basically holding an open competition in the defensive backfield, so it remains to be seen who the Hogs ultimately roll with on the back end.
Regardless, I just think you get Arkansas' best effort in what becomes its Super Bowl out of the bye week, which is extremely beneficial for a pair of very good coordinators in OC Bobby Petrino and DC Travis Williams.
After the time off, the Hogs should also have a much cleaner bill of health, especially at quarterback and running back. Trotting out a less-than-100% Taylen Green certainly didn't help matters prior to the bye since his mobility is paramount, especially in this particular matchup. The defense probably won't have much success, but the offense can score enough to stay within two touchdowns.
During Pittman's era in Fayetteville, his teams have consistently played their best football when nobody gave them a chance against a superior opponent. This game fits that mold perfectly.
Notable Nugget
As an underdog, Sam Pittman is 22-10 ATS (68.8%), which includes a sparkling 10-3 ATS mark (76.9%) when catching double digits.
Projection: Arkansas +13.1
Pick: Arkansas +14.5 (Play to +14)
| | |
UMass +14.5 at Liberty
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
I struggle to see how Liberty really cares about this nonconference road game at UMass. Coming into the season, Liberty had College Football Playoff aspirations, but those are now completely shot.
The Flames still have an outside shot of winning their conference, but it will require a pair of wins over Western Kentucky and Sam Houston to close out the regular season, as well as some help elsewhere.
Are they really going to be focused or fully prepared for lowly UMass, especially with a noon kick in Amherst? I have my doubts.
Plus, this Flames team has been extremely underwhelming all year despite a strength of schedule that ranks outside the top 150 nationally (including FCS teams, per Sagarin).
Unlike last year when they dominated inferior teams on a weekly basis, this year's team has had numerous head-scratching results. They easily could've lost at New Mexico State and actually did get upset as a nearly four-touchdown favorite at Kennesaw State.
Those are two of the worst teams in the entire country. Plus, it also needed overtime to beat Florida International at home.
The Flames have significant holes on both sides of the ball due to a laundry list of injuries and some key portal losses they just haven't adequately replaced.
I also wouldn't be surprised if head coach Jamey Chadwell holds out a key player (or two) who has been dealing with injuries.
While Liberty will hit the road for its second straight road game, UMass will benefit from a much-needed bye week.
That should enable the offense to get more comfortable with a new signal-caller after losing Taisun Phommachanh to a season-ending injury. I'd imagine Ahmad Haston gets the start, but we could also see freshman AJ Hairston.
There's certainly an element of surprise that could work in the Minutemen's favor. Haston does at least have previous experience, and I don't think the drop-off from Phommachanh is material.
UMass is not a good football team by any stretch, but it has demonstrated a much higher ceiling in 2024 than we have seen in recent seasons.
The Minutemen have fared particularly well against the upper echelon of the MAC in a trio of road games. They outplayed Toledo statistically in an easy cover, lost in overtime to Miami (OH) and were tied in the fourth quarter against Northern Illinois.
Liberty should have success running the ball with Quinton Cooley against a weak UMass defensive front, but the passing attack really lacks juice this year. Ultimately, I'm just banking on the flat spot with a number I make under two touchdowns in a game that's essentially meaningless for Liberty.
Plus, per his own words, Chadwell isn't the type to normally run up a score late, which could help late if needed.
Notable Nugget
As a favorite of more than 10 points, Liberty head coach Jamey Chadwell has gone just 12-20-2 ATS (37.5%).
Projection: UMass +11.9
Pick: UMass +14.5 (Play to +13.5)
