We start the Week 13 college football slate with my three Saturday noon spots, includingNCAAF picks and predictions for Saturday, November 23.
Let's get into it.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 13, here's the full piece.
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: 62-41-1 (60.2%)
- Overall: 161-111-2 (59.2%)
Stuckey's NCAAF Picks for Week 13 Noon Games
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Maryland +7 |
  | 12 p.m. | Boston College +3.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Virginia +10 |
Maryland +7 vs. Iowa
12 p.m. ET ⋅ Big Ten Network
Maryland is a tough team to crack, but I've fortunately had success this season knowing when to back the Terps, which is surprising since they've owned me in the past.
They have a talented group of skill-position players, including running back Roman Hemby and the dynamic wide receiver duo of Tai Felton and Kaden Prather.
However, the offensive output has been extremely inconsistent on a week-to-week basis in large part due to one of the worst offensive lines at the P4 level with a particularly horrid state at left tackle.
Head coach Mike Locksley also took over play-calling duties from offensive coordinator Josh Gattis, but it hasn't led to any noticeable improvement in efficiency.
I'm not a fan of Gattis, but I'd argue things have gotten worse, especially when you look at the production of quarterback Billy Edwards, who is coming off his three worst games of the season with only one Big-Time Throw to four Turnover-Worthy Plays after accumulating a 21:7 ratio over the first half of the season, per PFF.
With that said, I'm not overreacting to that small sample size, which included some very good secondaries. I've generally liked what I've seen from Edwards this season. Plus, this Iowa defense is not the same caliber we're used to seeing under Phil Parker.
Yes, the Hawkeyes are still very good defensively, but they just aren't the nationally elite group we've become accustomed to. The defensive line isn't great, and they're allowing more explosive plays than usual. In fact, they've allowed more through 10 games than they did in 14 last year.
Despite all of the returning experience, they just haven't been able to adequately replace Logan Lee, Joe Evans and Cooper DeJean — all three of whom now sit on NFL rosters.
The Iowa defense has also been particularly leaky on the road, even allowing the anemic UCLA rushing attack to gash it in its most recent game.
With all of that said, this is more about making this Iowa offense beat me on the road by more than a touchdown.
The Maryland secondary is horrid, and it continues to shuffle guys in and out of the lineup on the back end, but that won't really hurt it here against Iowa's paltry passing attack.
In order to slow down Iowa's offense, you have to contain running back Kaleb Johnson, who's essentially Iowa's entire offense.
Well, Maryland's biggest strength by a country mile on defense is slowing down opposing ground games, ranking in the top 25 nationally in EPA per Rush.
The Terps do a particularly stellar job limiting rush explosives, which is key against Johnson. And while they allow far too many pass explosives, that element of Iowa's offense is almost nonexistent.
Plus, we don't even know who will suit up under center for Iowa. Brendan Sullivan had recently taken over Cade McNamara, which I actually thought was a slight upgrade, but he's now lost for the season with an injury.
Additionally, McNamara is also dealing with an injury, which could mean a first career start for Jackson Stratton, who was recently practicing as a scout team linebacker.
And while I don't think too highly of McNamara, that would obviously be a clear downgrade for the walk-on who transferred in over the summer from Colorado State, where he went 4-of-17 for 78 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions in limited action. Just ask yourself why Iowa moved him to linebacker in the first place.
For what it's worth, head coach Kirk Ferentz said the status of McNamara — who is listed as QB1 on the depth chart — for Saturday is "cloudy," and he wouldn't have started if the game were played earlier this week.
It's not the best scheduling spot with Iowa coming off of a bye, but I trust Maryland will try to keep its bowl hopes alive in its home finale after an embarrassing home loss against Rutgers. Give me the Terps and the points.
Notable Nugget
Against P4 programs, Kirk Ferentz is just 23-37-3 ATS (38.3%) as a touchdown-plus favorite, including 28-42-3 (40%) when favored by six-plus points.
Projection: Maryland +4.0
Pick: Maryland +7 (Play to +6)
Boston College +3.5 vs. North Carolina
12 p.m. ET ⋅ The CW
I have to give a lot of credit to Mack Brown for leading this UNC team to an amazing in-season turnaround after many left him and this team dead following an embarrassing 70-50 home loss to JMU that started a string of four consecutive losses.
Not only did they lose four straight, but a few of those came in true gut-wrenching fashion, including games against Georgia Tech and Duke.
However, following a much-needed bye week, UNC rallied and rattled off three consecutive wins to clinch a bowl appearance.
So, what has changed?
The Heels have cleaned up some of the tackling and communication issues on defense. More importantly, Kaimon Rucker returned from injury and has been an absolute menace during UNC's three-game winning streak in which he piled up a whopping 18 pressures and six sacks.
The offense hasn't changed at all. It still feeds Omarian Hampton, who is one of the best backs in the country and would be getting much more national attention if not for Ashton Jeanty's historic season.
The passing attack remains a bit limited, although they don't ask Jacolby Criswell to do much. They also lost starting tight end Bryson Nesbit to a season-ending injury.
While I do applaud Brown and the Heels for their in-season turnaround, their three most recent victories came against an injury-ravaged Virginia team, Wake Forest and the corpse of Florida State. Not exactly a murderer's row of competition.
They will get a much stiffer test against a Boston College team that I expect to come out fired up at home with a chance to clinch its season-long goal of reaching bowl eligibility under first-year coach Bill O'Brien, who has done a tremendous job to date.
From a matchup perspective, Boston College has one of the more underrated run defenses in the country, ranking in the top 20 in EPA per Rush and Rush Success Rate.
The Eagles could also possibly get their leader in the middle back in linebacker Kam Arnold. They can do enough to contain Hampton, which cuts the head of the snake off of the UNC offense.
The weakness of this BC defense by far lies in the secondary, especially given some of the injuries it has dealt with.
Already without the injured Amari Jackson, O'Brien stated Max Tucker and Bryquice Brown are questionable, which would put more on true freshman Ashton McShane's plate. However, I have liked what I've seen from McShane so far.
Plus, it's not like UNC will light teams up through the air. The Heels rank 90th in Passing Success Rate, and while Criswell has an impressive 12:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio, he's thrown only seven Big-Time Throws to 11 Turnover-Worthy Plays.
There are some turnovers coming, especially if he can't just make easy downfield passes off of play-action.
This is a good matchup for the BC defense, assuming Hampton just doesn't put on a cape, which he's certainly capable of doing. The only game this season where BC wasn't competitive came at Virginia Tech when Hokies back Bhayshul Tuten did just that with 266 rushing yards.
On the other side of the ball, BC has recently turned to Grayson James at quarterback after Thomas Castellanos left the program after getting benched in the Eagles' win over Syracuse two weeks ago.
While James will put the ball in harm's way at times, I actually think it's an upgrade to this specific offense, as James is a better fit for this particular scheme.
BC has recently found its offensive identity and ideal running back rotation that spearheads a power-rushing attack behind a very strong offensive line that ultimately sets up some play-action shots downfield for James, who's more capable than Castellanos in that department.
That formula should work against a UNC defense that ranks 97th in EPA per Rush and can get lost in the sauce on the back end. BC should have success using some misdirection in this particular matchup as well.
Plus, how motivated will UNC be for a windy noon kick in Chestnut Hill? The bye potentially squashed its momentum, and it has already clinched a bowl.
Give me the desperate Eagles, who can win this game in the trenches at home.
Notable Nugget
During his time in Chapel Hill, Mack Brown is just 5-11 ATS (31.3%) as a road favorite in league play, failing to cover by nearly four points per game.
Projection: Boston College +1.5
Pick: Boston College +3.5 (Play to +3)
| | |
Virginia +10 vs. SMU
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2
SMU has had a remarkable turnaround to its season after some early-season struggles that included a near-loss to Nevada in Week 0 followed by a home loss to BYU.
Part of the improvement coincided with a permanent change at quarterback, transitioning from a rotation of Preston Stone and Kevin Jennings to exclusively Jennings.
The Mustangs also boast real P4-level talent on the defense, led by Elijah Roberts, who should return after missing last week's game with an injury.
With that said, I believe SMU is currently one of the most overvalued teams in the betting market.
The Mustangs have benefited from an extremely favorable ACC schedule that has also been assisted by other ancillary factors. Let's just take a look at who they have beat since they turned things around following their bye week:
- TCU by 24 (outgained by 105 yards; +4 turnover margin)
- Florida State
- Louisville (coin-flip)
- Stanford (freshman making first career start at QB)
- Duke (in overtime)
- Pitt
- Boston College
Color me not impressed, especially considering some of the good fortune they've enjoyed in terms of quarterbacks faced.
And while they beat Duke in overtime despite a -6 turnover margin, the Mustangs were +8 in the other six contests. Plus, those seven opponents went just 11-of-25 on fourth-down attempts.
All I'm saying is they've been a bit fortunate in a variety of ways against an already soft schedule.
Plus, SMU is far from perfect. Brashard Smith is a very talented running back, but the ground game isn't overly efficient, primarily due to an offensive line that struggles in run blocking.
It also lost its best deep threat to a season-ending injury in tight end RJ Maryland, while the wide receiver room doesn't blow you away with talent.
Defensively, SMU is as stingy as it gets when it comes to stopping the run, but the cornerback room can be attacked a bit, and the secondary as a whole allows too many explosive plays through the air.
Can Virginia take advantage? Potentially. A lot of it will come down to which quarterback is under center and how they perform.
Tony Muskett gives UVA more stability, but Anthony Colandrea brings more upside (and more risk) to the table. You want to attack this SMU secondary deep, so I'd roll with Colandrea, who has been the starter of late.
However, he did get pulled in the second half last week after a disastrous performance against Notre Dame. His intermediary and deep-ball efficiency has also fallen off a cliff recently.
Head coach Tony Elliott stated both have split first-team reps this week. I'd expect Colandrea to get the start but with a shorter leash if he continues making mistakes without providing the splash plays downfield.
I do have Virginia rated higher than the market. I didn't put too much stock into its blowout loss to UNC due to the dire injury situation along the offensive line at the time, which completely crumbled the offense.
Virginia has also dealt with key defensive injuries and misses wide receiver Trell Harris alongside Malachi Fields. Even last week against Notre Dame, five first-half turnovers led to all 28 of the Irish's first-half points.
If you listen to our "Big Bets of Campus" podcast, I've been saying for a month that SMU is going to lose in Charlottesville, so I'm sticking to my guns.
I do have concerns about the residual fallout from a very physical battle in South Bend. Starting safety Corey Thomas Jr. won't play, and others definitely got beat up. Interestingly enough, teams are 0-8 ATS the week after playing ND in 2024.
Still, at +10, I see enough value to pull the trigger on the Hoos, who will try to play spoiler while keeping their postseason hopes alive on Senior Day in their home finale.
All of the pressure is on an SMU squad that I believe has reached the very peak of its market rating.
Notable Nugget
Virginia head coach Tony Elliott is 13-3 ATS (81.3%) as an underdog in ACC play, including a perfect 8-0 when catching a touchdown or more.
Projection: Virginia +7.4
Pick: Virginia +10 (Play to +9.5)
