We start the Week 14 college football slate with my four Saturday noon spots, includingNCAAF picks and predictions for Saturday, November 30.
Let's get into it.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 14, here's the full piece.
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: 66-46-1 (58.9%)
- Overall: 165-116-2 (58.7%)
Stuckey's NCAAF Picks for Week 14 Noon Games
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | Saturday, 12 p.m. | Vanderbilt +11.5 |
  | Saturday, 12 p.m. | Northwestern +7.5 |
  | Saturday, 12 p.m. | Louisiana-Monroe +10 |
  | Saturday, 12 p.m. | UTSA +7.5 |
Vanderbilt +11.5 vs. Tennessee
Saturday, 12 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
There was no chance I was going to pass up the potential last chance to bet Diego Pavia as a double-digit underdog. I made the mistake of fading him as one last year against Auburn but have backed him each time this season in this role.
Just take a look at his past results:
- +25.5 at Liberty (W by 35)
- +25.5 at Auburn (W by 21)
- +12.5 at Kentucky (W by 7)
- +23.5 vs Alabama (W by 5)
- +17.5 at Missouri (L by 3)
- +13 vs. Virginia Tech (W by 7)
- +17.5 vs. Texas (L by 3)
That's a perfect 7-0 ATS, covering by a whopping 25 points per game. Even more impressive, his teams have gone 5-2 SU (with six of the seven opponents being in the SEC) with the only two losses coming by a field goal each.
It's not just Pavia though.
Vanderbilt profiles as a very intriguing double-digit underdog since they profile as a quasi-service academy that wants to shorten the game at all costs. With limited possessions, it becomes much harder for sizable favorites to build and maintain margin.
Additionally, in this specific spot, Vanderbilt — which is already bowl-eligible — is playing with house money against its bitter rival. It has a chance to potentially vanquish Tennessee's College Football Playoff hopes. What does that mean?
Well, all of the pressure is on the Vols, while Vandy can play completely loose, so I'd expect plenty of wrinkles and a few trick plays from an offense that loves to use misdirection and gadgets that could work against a vulnerable Vols coverage unit that should give up a few shot plays in this particular matchup.
Lastly, I'm still not fully sold on this Tennessee team that has lost both of its SEC road games against Arkansas and Georgia, scoring 31 total points in the process. The offensive line still has holes, and Nico Iamaleava still isn't all the way there yet.
Keep in mind Tennessee, which also should've lost at home to Florida, has only exceeded oddsmakers' expectations once in league play in a home win over Alabama in which Jalen Milroe clearly wasn't at 100%.
Can the Vandy cornerbacks hold up? That's my biggest concern, but I'll pay to find out.
Notable Nugget
Vanderbilt is 7-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
Projection: Vanderbilt +8.9
Pick: Vanderbilt +11.5 (Play to +10.5)
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Northwestern +7.5 vs. Illinois
Saturday, 12 p.m. ET ⋅ Big Ten Network
Back to the well with Northwestern for a third straight week. It worked out well two weeks ago against Ohio State but not so much last Saturday against Michigan in one of the worst bets I've ever placed in my life.
The Wildcats were utterly dominated from start to finish by the Wolverines.
They simply couldn't block Michigan up front nor stop the run, but neither of those issues should be a concern this week against an Illinois team that has a very poor defensive front and really struggles on the ground offensively.
As a result of that blowout loss at Michigan, I think the market has adjusted too much, especially this late in the season.
Keep in mind, Northwestern closed as a 10.5-point underdog in the Big House just a few days ago. Now, it's catching only a field goal less in Wrigley Field against an Illinois squad that closed as a 5.5-point underdog at home against Michigan.
And while this is a neutral-site game, I do give a slight bump to Northwestern for home-field advantage since it has already played a game at Wrigley Field this season and barely has any travel to deal with.
Lastly, I have no issues fading the Illini, who have been one of the luckiest teams in the entire country.
They stole a win on a last-second bomb last week at Rutgers in large part due to Greg Schiano's incompetence. They also got very fortunate earlier this season against a Kansas team that had yet to find its footing and had a pair of overtime victories over Nebraska and Purdue.
If we use second-order wins as the barometer for luck, here's where Illinois stacks up nationally:
- Arkansas State: +3.8 (7 wins vs. 3.2)
- Texas Tech: +3.0 (7 wins vs. 4.0)
- Georgia Southern: +2.0 (7 wins vs. 5.0)
- Illinois: +1.7 (8 wins vs 6.3)
- West Virginia: +1.7 (6 wins vs. 4.3)
Northwestern getting obliterated by Michigan and Illinois stealing a win at Rutgers likely got us over a touchdown here in a game I project closer to six, so I'll happily take the hook with Northwestern in its final game of the season in the battle for The Land of Lincoln Trophy.
Notable Nugget
Against FBS foes, Bret Bielema is just 6-13 ATS (31.6%) as a favorite during his tenure at Illinois.
Projection: Northwestern +5.7
Pick: Northwestern +7.5 or Better
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Louisiana-Monroe +10 vs. Louisiana
Saturday, 12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPNU
As I mentioned earlier, not all five-win teams are created equal. It's entirely subjective determining which programs you think will care about getting to bowl eligibility.
I happen to think UL Monroe sits atop the motivation list under a new regime following a 2-10 season for a program that has never won a bowl game.
And while I don't show an abundance of value from a point-spread perspective, there are other factors at play besides what I think will be a super-motivated ULM team.
In terms of the Sun Belt race, Louisiana sits atop the West with a one-game margin over South Alabama. The Ragin' Cajuns will clinch the division with a win over UL Monroe.
However, if South Alabama loses on Friday, Louisiana won't really have anything to play for on Saturday. And considering Texas State is currently a small favorite, there's a slightly greater than 50% chance that happens.
With original starting quarterback Ben Wooldridge already on the shelf with an injury, ULL might be more inclined to rest quarterback Chandler Fields (who I have rated a bit worse) ahead of the Sun Belt title game if South Alabama falls on Friday.
From a matchup perspective, the UL Monroe offense is extremely limited. It plays really slow (ideal for a double-digit dog at least) and wants to feed running back Ahmad Hardy as frequently as possible.
Well, that formula could absolutely work against a horrific ULL run defense that ranks dead last in the country in Rush Success Rate allowed (and 132nd in Rush EPA).
The Warhawks should be able to sustain drives by relying on their ground game and in turn shorten this game. On the other side of the ball, their secondary can at least compete with Louisiana's high-powered aerial attack.
I also think Louisiana comes into this game a bit overvalued after benefiting from a number of breaks during league play. There's likely some turnover regression coming, and none of its three league road wins have come by more than 10 points against Coastal Carolina, Texas State and lowly Southern Miss.
Notable Nugget
Head coach Michael Desormeaux has gone just 3-6 ATS as a road favorite, failing to cover by over a touchdown per game on average. He's also lost five of those nine games outright with four of those five coming as a favorite of at least a touchdown.
Projection: UL Monroe +8.9
Pick: UL Monroe +10 or Better
| | | |
UTSA +7.5 at Army
Saturday, 12 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
I love this spot for Meep Meep, which is playing its best football of the season, having found its footing on offense with Owen McCown slinging it all over the field.
After a slow start to the season, UTSA has won four of its last five with the lone loss coming by one after it somehow blew a 35-7 lead.
It has scored at least 38 points in all five with explosive plays all over the field. The Roadrunners shouldn't have issues moving the ball on this Army defense.
Most importantly, UTSA brings an elite run defense up to West Point, which is obviously critical against the Black Knights. On the season, the Roadrunners have only allowed 3.07 yards per rush, which ranks 11th nationally, while ranking second in Rush Success Rate and eighth in EPA per Rush.
They also grade out at an elite level in some of the underlying metrics (such as Stuff Rate) that I look for when evaluating how a defense will perform against a service academy offense.
Plus, Army might be a bit deflated after last week's crushing defeat against Notre Dame, which essentially ended its College Football Playoff hopes.
The Black Knights are essentially playing for nothing in this game with the AAC title and Army-Navy game on deck.
They also got pretty beat up last week against the Irish, which could have some lingering effects this weekend, while UTSA will get to enjoy an extra day of rest and prep after playing in a laugher against Temple.
These two teams seem to be trending in different directions. Army might be wearing down after playing an actual league schedule compared to previous seasons when it had four or five cupcakes on its schedule that provided a nice breather.
Meanwhile, UTSA has really put things together after dealing with injuries early in the season, as you'd expect under a very good head coach in Jeff Traylor.
Give me Meep Meep in a good spot with a spread I think is super inflated.
Notable Nugget
Against FBS competition, Jeff Monken is just 13-20-1 ATS (39.4%) as a home favorite. Teams are also 0-9 ATS the week after playing Notre Dame this season.
Projection: UTSA +4.0
UTSA +7.5 (Play to +6)
