NCAAF Picks for Week 4: Saturday Night Bets for Texas-ULM, USF-Miami on Sept. 21

We continue the Week 4 slate with Saturday night NCAAF picks, featuring and more.

My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.

For full reference of all my spots for Week 4, here's the full piece.

• 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
• 2024: 4-9 (30.8%)
• Overall: 103-79-1 (56.6%)

	7 p.m.	USF +17.5
	7 p.m.	Western Kentucky +3
	7:30 p.m.	Oklahoma +7.5
	8 p.m.	Louisiana-Monroe +45

USF +17.5 vs. Miami

7 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN

The Hurricanes are the real deal. They have an abundance of talent on both sides of the ball that will enable them to compete with any team in the country if they make it to the College Football Playoff.

However, I also believe we've reached the peak of the market on Miami.

Don't forget that everybody fell in love with Mario Cristobal's bunch last year, too, after a 4-0 start that included a few blowouts over inferior opponents and a big win against Texas A&M.

Then, the Canes lost outright to Georgia Tech in a similar price range as this game.

That sounds familiar to the start Miami has enjoyed in 2024 with a pantsing of Florida and two laughers against Ball State and Florida A&M.

While I'm not saying South Florida will win this game outright, the Bulls can at least keep this one competitive in what should be a pretty raucous environment in Tampa.

Plus, you know a lot of the USF kids from Florida want this one a little more — similar to what we saw with NIU against Notre Dame in Week 2.

College Football Bowl Projections for Week 4: Brett McMurphy's College Football Playoff Predictions, Bowl PicksRead now

USF has fared well against Power 4 competition over the past two seasons under head coach Alex Golesh, which includes a pair of matchups with Alabama and a drubbing of Syracuse in a bowl game. That bodes well for this particular matchup.

The Bulls also boast an explosive passing attack capable of exploiting Miami's primary weakness on paper in its secondary, which has yet to be fully tested this season.

Keep in mind that dominant win over Florida doesn't look as impressive after what we saw Texas A&M do to the Gators in the Swamp last Saturday.

The Bulls struggled to find their timing in the passing attack to start the season, but things really started to click as the game went on last week against Southern Miss.

Quarterback Byrum Brown also provides a nice floor with his rushing ability. The Bulls still have holes on their defense, but it looks to be an improved unit with more experience in addition to a few transfers who have seemingly fit in well.

Pick: USF +17 or Better

Western Kentucky +3 vs. Toledo

7 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+

Toledo burned me last week at Mississippi State, which ended up being one of the worst wagers I've placed in years. I'm really not sure what happened to the Bulldogs last week. Maybe they were still hungover from the heat in Tempe.

While the Rockets looked flawless in Starkville, they're still a team that struggled mightily the week prior against UMass. They also allowed a bad Duquesne team that could barely get a first down against Boston College to amass almost 300 yards in Week 1.

Coming into the season, I had concerns for Toledo on both sides of the ball.

Offensively, the Rockets had to replace their star quarterback, running back and all five starting offensive linemen.

Defensively, they lost their top two pass-rushers and both starting cornerbacks, including first-round NFL Draft pick Quinyon Mitchell, who's starting for the Eagles now.

I probably would've passed on this game at the original line, but after it moved to +3, I had to take a stab on the Hilltoppers in a game I project closer to a coin-flip.

I'm not sure if the market was reacting to the news that WKU quarterback TJ Finley would miss this game with an injury, but I actually think Caden Veltkamp serves as a slight upgrade.

The sample size isn't large, but Velktamp has thrown five touchdowns in each of the two games in which he's played the majority of snaps. That includes last year's bowl victory over Old Dominion and last week's rout of Middle Tennessee, where he finished a sparkling 27-for-30 for 398 yards and five scores.

The Western Kentucky offense will put up points, while the defense will struggle to get many stops against quality opponents. Its cornerback group is probably the unit I trust the most on defense, which helps against a very good group of Toledo receivers.

However, the rest of the defense profiles as extremely porous.

That said, I can't get to a field goal here. I'll make Tucker Gleason prove he can back up last week's performance with another efficient effort.

For as good as he performed last week (23-for-28), he looked just as bad the week before against UMass, finishing just 8-for-23 passing. And while he does have nine touchdowns to no interceptions so far in 2024, he still doesn't have a big-time throw, per PFF.

Toledo will get to face a similar type of offense as Mississippi State. That does help, but it's not an ideal situational spot.

The Rockets now hit the road for a second straight road game after pulling off a rare road upset of an SEC team. Plus, they have a huge conference game on deck against Miami (OH) to kick off league play in a game I'm sure they've had circled since losing to the RedHawks in last year's MAC Championship.

Pick: Western Kentucky +3 or Better

Oklahoma +7.5 vs. Tennessee

7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC

This one is scary, as Tennessee has looked like the best team in the country both in terms of the eye test and on paper (No. 1 in EPA margin).

However, it has faced FCS Chattanooga, NC State in Charlotte and a Kent State team that lost to St. Francis at home the week prior.

The Vols deserve credit for dismantling all three opponents, but the blowout of NC State doesn't hold the same luster after seeing what the Wolfpack did in their other two games against Western Carolina and Louisiana Tech. In fact, they failed to hold a lead through three quarters in both of those games.

Meanwhile, despite a 3-0 start, Oklahoma hasn't looked the part — especially on offense, where it ranks outside the top 100 in Success Rate.

Most of the offensive struggles can be attributed to some questionable play-calling, as well as an abundance of injuries at wide receiver and along an offensive line that already had to replace all five starters from last year's team.

That has led to a constant rotation across the front, which has really hampered the offense in every facet.

Fortunately for the Sooners, it does look like Oklahoma will be much healthier this week to kick off SEC play.

I expect starting center Branson Hickman and guard Troy Everett to return, which will enable Jacob Sexton to move to his more natural position. After that, we'll see about projected starting right tackle Jake Taylor, who at least warmed up last week.

Hickman is particularly key as the anchor of the line at a position that has been an absolute mess for the Sooners. In fairness, no team in the country is really going to fare well when down to its fourth-string center.

The wide receiver room — which has pretty much been Deion Burks and no other help — could also receive a massive boost with the return of Nic Anderson (warmed up last week) and Andrel Anthony.

Oklahoma's secondary could also even be closer to full strength. I'd expect Kendel Dolby and/or Dasan McCullough back, which is massive for the Cheetah position in Brent Venables' defense. You could also see the return of projected top cornerback Gentry Williams in some capacity.

Getting any or all of those guys back would be helpful against the vaunted Tennessee passing attack, especially since the front seven is already as talented as ever in Norman.

Through three games, I have upgraded Tennessee aggressively and downgraded Oklahoma a few points, but I still can't get to this number that I would've projected closer to Oklahoma -7 to begin the season.

This will still mark the first true road game for highly-touted Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava in what should be a super hostile environment.

Plus, the Sooners should be as healthy as they've been all season. Can they protect Jackson Arnold enough to exploit a vulnerable Tennessee secondary? That's likely the key to this game.

While I still have some worries about the pass protection in terms of health and continuity, I'm selling high on the Vols at this price.

Pick: Oklahoma +7 or Better

Louisiana-Monroe +45 at Texas

8 p.m. ET ⋅ SEC Network+

This one isn't too complicated.

I don't expect Quinn Ewers to play after suffering an abdominal injury last week.

While there might not be much of a drop-off to Arch Manning — who has shined any time he has seen the field so far in his young career — that means Manning won't come in to relieve Ewers.

Instead, it will be a freshman who obviously has talent but isn't yet on the same level as Manning and Ewers — a duo that, when healthy, makes it very difficult to fade Texas as a large favorite against overmatched opponents.

Head coach Steve Sarkisian also now has to be more cautious with Manning since Ewers is dealing with an injury, so maybe that means he pulls his starting quarterback quicker than usual with SEC play on the horizon next week.

UL Monroe also looks better than expected, having exceeded oddsmakers' expectations by a wide margin in each of its first two games.

It was a complete rebuild in the offseason from the staff to the roster, so the Warhawks were generally a difficult team to rate. However, a blowout win over UAB definitely looks better after seeing the Blazers play a competitive game against Arkansas in Fayetteville.

Additionally, ULM will be coming off of an early-season bye. That could actually be more beneficial to the Warhawks than the average team since they're basically a brand-new operation.

Former Oklahoma transfer General Booty is the man under center, but this is a slow-paced, run-heavy offense that will look to shorten this game at all costs. That's ideal for an underdog of this size.

Pick: UL Monroe +45