NCAAF Picks for Week 6: Stuckey’s Late-Game Bets for Miami vs Cal, More

We continue the Week 6 slate with six Saturday late-game NCAAF picks for Saturday, October 5.

My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.

For full reference of all my spots for Week 6, here's the full piece.

• 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
• 2024: 11-20-1 (35.5%)
• Overall: 110-90-2 (55.0%)

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
	6:30 p.m.	Colorado State +13
	7:30 p.m.	Arkansas +14
	7:30 p.m.	Washington -2.5
	7:30 p.m.	Minnesota +9
	8 p.m.	Georgia Tech -7.5
	10:30 p.m.	California +11

Colorado State +13 at Oregon State

6:30 p.m. ET ⋅ The CW

Both teams come off a bye ahead of this matchup, but I believe that will better serve Colorado State.

The Rams should get a number of key players back healthy, including star wide receiver Tory Horton, who missed last game and was extremely limited against Colorado.

He's everything to the offense, and I'm not sure the Beavers have anybody who can contain him.

The Rams will also likely be the healthiest on defense they've been all season, especially along the defensive line, where they really could use a boost.

From a matchup perspective, Oregon State is a run-heavy offense, which plays into the strength of a Colorado State defense that ranks in the top 40 nationally in EPA per Rush.

While the safeties are rock solid, the cornerback room leaves a lot to be desired — but the Beavers don't really have the chops to take full advantage through the air, ranking outside the top 100 in Pass Success Rate.

On the other side of the ball, Colorado State should have success getting Avery Morrow going on the ground against a very suspect Beaver run defense, which even allowed Purdue to run for 263 yards at nearly nine yards per pop. That, in turn, should open up some downfield shots for Horton and friends.

Keep in mind that two weeks ago, the market faded Oregon State into oblivion against Purdue. And while the Beavers took care of business in that one, that line closed close to a PK against an opponent I now have power-rated similarly to Colorado State.

I happily took the points here against an Oregon State team that doesn't profile as a very good double-digit favorite.

Projection: Colorado State +10.2

Pick: Colorado State +11.5 or Better

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Arkansas +14 vs. Tennessee

7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC

Please skip to the next section because I clearly haven't learned my lesson when it comes to fading the Vols, which I have done twice this season unsuccessfully.

I'm a stubborn man, but this line just came out too high even after accounting for the fact that Tennessee will benefit from a bye week and potentially better health.

I've obviously been impressed with Tennessee, which has easily covered every game in dominant fashion. However, despite my previous transgressions, it's worth noting how underwhelming Oklahoma and NC State (its two best wins) have looked in their other games.

I wrote about NC State earlier, and Oklahoma has still not found any semblance of an offense — and even its defense got absolutely gashed by Auburn last week in a game it was outgained 482-291.

This will also likely be the first real test for a Tennessee secondary that essentially started from scratch after a mass exodus of talent in the offseason.

Oklahoma couldn't block Tennessee and ended up losing its most important receiver early in the game from a bunch that was already decimated by injury, while NC State still hasn't been able to complete a forward pass all season.

Yet, still, Tennessee ranks outside the top 100 in Pass Success Rate despite not facing a serious test.

Plus, not a single Vols opponent has had any semblance of a rushing attack, either. That's certainly not the case with the Hogs, who rank in the top five nationally in both Rush Success Rate and EPA per Rush.

We did see the Sooners have some success late with a mobile quarterback after benching Jackson Arnold, so the legs of Taylen Green could become an important factor against the vaunted Tennessee defensive line.

It's absolutely paramount to get the ground game going against Tennessee to prevent the Vols from pinning their ears back on known passing downs, especially since Arkansas' backs struggle in pass protection.

Defensively, Arkansas has certainly faced one of the nation's toughest schedules to date with games against Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, and Auburn — all of which came away from home. It was fortunate to beat Auburn but really outplayed both Texas A&M and Oklahoma State in a pair of unlucky defeats due to costly mistakes.

My biggest takeaway was how good the rush defense performed, which is always a crucial part of slowing down the high-flying Tennessee offense. That's essentially how Oklahoma's defense kept it in the game for so long despite an absolutely anemic offensive output.

And while Nico Iamaleava is one of the most talented quarterbacks in college football, he's still super inexperienced and hasn't been as sharp as his team's final scores may indicate with more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws against the three FBS foes he's faced.

Arkansas does have a sturdy safety duo, but it's an underwhelming cornerback group that includes former Vol Doneiko Slaughter, which is an interesting subplot to watch.

I do expect Tennessee to have both starting tackles, but that's also a situation worth monitoring since it does lack quality depth up front.

Green is extremely erratic and inaccurate, so he could just have a completely off day, but Arkansas is the first opponent Tennessee will face with the ability to hit explosive plays with the likes of Ja'Quinden Jackson and Andrew Armstrong.

Maybe Tennessee is as elite as it has looked, or maybe this is another Ole Miss situation. We saw the Rebels look unstoppable through four games with four easy covers before losing outright as more than a two-touchdown favorite at home against Kentucky.

I do want a 14 here, though, with the underdog king, Sam Pittman.

Projection: Arkansas +11.7

Pick: Waiting for Arkansas +14 (-115 or Better)

Washington -2.5 vs. Michigan

7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ NBC

This is a tough spot for Michigan, which will head out west for its first road game of the season against a team that still has a few holdover pieces who will be out for National Championship revenge.

If you look under the hood, Washington has been super impressive despite all of the offseason roster turnover under new head coach Jedd Fisch, who I'm a huge fan of.

The Huskies rank in the top 15 nationally on both sides of the ball in many advanced metrics.

They were the superior team in both losses (97% postgame win expectancy against Rutgers) but were done in by penalties (16 for 135 against Wazzu), special teams mistakes and red-zone woes.

On a down-to-down basis, the offense has looked like a very clean operation with great balance between running back Jonah Coleman and the talented wide receiver tandem of Giles Jackson and Denzel Boston.

Transfer quarterback Will Rogers looks extremely comfortable in the pocket and has plenty of big-game experience to draw from.

Minnesota also had success going with tempo late in the game, which neutralized Michigan's dominant defensive line. I'm sure Washington is fully aware.

While Washington has enjoyed great balance on offense, the same can't be said for Michigan, which made a quarterback change to Alex Orji two games ago. That has essentially completely neutered an already non-existent passing attack.

The Wolverines somehow upset USC with just 32 passing yards thanks to a dominant ground game in an ideal situational spot.

However, a week later against Minnesota, which had film on Michigan's approach with Orji running the show, it couldn't get its ground game going against a defense that Iowa's Kaleb Johnson gashed the week prior. Michigan averaged only 3.6 yards per carry and actually got outgained 296-241.

Yes, it held on for a second-straight 27-24 home victory, but the Maize and Blue benefited from touchdown drives of 11 and 16 yards following Minnesota mistakes. The Gophers also missed a field goal and ultimately got robbed by a blown call on a recovered onside kick late in the game.

While Washington's run defense hasn't been as sturdy as its coverage on the back end, defensive coordinator Steve Belichick should have no issues drawing up a game plan to stop a completely one-dimensional attack with absolutely no concerns about what the Wolverines can accomplish through the air.

Expect a completely stacked box throughout.

Washington's kicker issues do concern me, and it needs to clean up the penalties and red-zone execution, but I like the Huskies to exact revenge on the one-dimensional Wolverines.

Projection: Washington -3.6

Pick: Washington -2.5 or Better · I personally played the ML here in what should be a lower-scoring game

Minnesota +9 vs. USC

7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ Big Ten Network

On the surface, this is a tricky situational spot for USC. After going from Michigan back home to face Wisconsin, the Trojans will head back out east to take on Minnesota one week before hosting Penn State.

It's also worth noting that the weather forecast calls for impactful winds (which I classify as anything over 15 mph), which will have a much more adverse impact on the Trojans, who have the more explosive passing attack.

Minnesota's pass defense does grade out as elite so far, but it has yet to face a competent aerial attack. With that said, I did expect the explosive play rate allowed to drop significantly this season in a more simplified scheme under new coordinator Corey Hetherman.

On the other side of the ball, I think there's a path to success for the Gopher offense. USC's defense has clearly improved by leaps and bounds under the tutelage of an upgraded staff, but it's still not an elite unit by any stretch.

The Trojans have done a tremendous job of limiting explosive passes, but that doesn't really matter against Minnesota, which should find success with its short passing attack under quarterback Max Brosmer — an area where USC has been vulnerable (outside the top-90 in Pass Success Rate).

The slow-paced Gophers can also copy Michigan's approach and lean on a now healthy Darius Taylor at running back against a USC defensive front that can be pushed around (sub-20th percentile in Line Yards and Stuff Rate).

USC has also been quite fortunate on late downs relative to its much more predictive early down data, so a correction could be coming in that department.

Brosmer has looked more comfortable running the show of late and the skill-position pieces are now healthy, so this is an offense that I expect to trend up as the season progresses.

They really started to click in the second half of that Michigan game and even excelled using more tempo, which could be on the table again if they're trailing.

This matchup will also feel like a major breather after facing the defenses of Iowa and Michigan in back-to-back weeks.

Give me the slow-paced, running dog at home in a great spot catching over a touchdown. And don't be surprised if Minnesota gets a friendly whistle after the Big Ten officials cost it last week at Michigan.

Projection: Minnesota +7

Pick: Minnesota +8.5 or Better

Georgia Tech -7.5 vs. Duke

8 p.m. ET ⋅ ACC Network

Duke is as fraudulent of a 5-0 team as you'll ever see. Here are the Blue Devils' victories so far:

• Elon by 23 (led only 13-0 midway through third quarter)
• Northwestern by six (in double overtime after tying it late)
• UConn by five (trailed in fourth quarter)
• MTSU by 28 (Blue Raiders without many starters; misleading final as well)
• UNC by one (trailed 20-0 in second half)

Plus, while the Blue Devils had to exhaust plenty of energy in an epic late comeback against their in-state rival in the battle for the Victory Bell, Georgia Tech enjoyed a much-needed bye week after some tough travel that began with a trip to Ireland to start the season. From a rest and preparation perspective, Tech has a major edge here.

Duke will also be stepping up in class against a Georgia Tech team that should come out salty after losing a game against Louisville it really gave away with mistakes.

That effort on the road in Louisville also really aged well after what we saw from the Cardinals offense against Notre Dame.

Duke can't run the ball efficiently and won't be able to do so against Georgia Tech. That will leave most of the work to quarterback Maalik Murphy, who just isn't accurate enough to take advantage of Georgia Tech's primary weakness in the secondary.

The Duke defense has played extremely well and been extremely Havoc-minded as you'd expect under Manny Diaz, but who has it faced?

Expect Buster Faulkner — one of the best offensive coordinators in college football — to have an extremely sharp game plan out of the bye to exploit Duke's aggressiveness by using plenty of misdirection.

Quarterback Haynes King has been incredible so far this season for the Ramblin' Wreck, and I expect that to continue on Saturday in Atlanta.

Duke could easily be 3-2 or even 2-3 on the season in which case this line would in all likelihood be sitting at 10 or more.

Projection: Georgia Tech -10.4

Pick: Georgia Tech -8.5 or Better

California +11 vs. Miami

10:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN

This is not the easiest spot for Miami, coming off a thrilling last-second win over Virginia Tech and now having to travel all the way across the country to take on a feisty Cal team that will be coming off of a bye week.

That off-time should serve the Bears well, as they dealt with as many injuries as any team in the country in the month of September.

Expect them to come into this one much healthier with the return of starting guard Sioape Vatikani and nickelback Matthew Littlejohn, who is extremely critical in this particular matchup.

Star running back Jaydn Ott should also now be fully healthy, and there's even a chance one or both of their projected starting wide receivers makes their season debut in Tobias Merriweather and Kyion Grayes, who transferred in from Notre Dame and Ohio State, respectively.

I'm still fairly stunned Cal pulled off a road upset earlier this season at Auburn given the myriad of missing starters.

While Miami has looked impressive to start the season, its results haven't aged particularly well. The victory over South Florida (which was close through three quarters) doesn't look as strong after what the Bulls did at Tulane last week.

Florida has been a mess all season, and Ball State gave up 63 to James Madison last week. Then, last Friday night, Virginia Tech finally showed signs of life after looking lost against Vanderbilt, Marshall and Old Dominion to start the season.

This Miami team still has discipline issues, and I don't think it'll continue its current record-setting late-down pace on offense.

Cam Ward dazzled over the first four weeks, but he's always been up-and-down throughout his career, so you never know when you'll get a head-scratching performance like the one we saw last week against the Hokies.

Cal's offensive line (and kicking situation) does scare me a bit, especially since Miami will likely get defensive end Rueben Bain back.

However, I expect the Bears to come out hot with a much healthier roster for their first-ever ACC home game with College GameDay in town for the first time ever.

Projection: Cal +9.3

Pick: Cal +10.5 or Better