We begin Week 7 slate with four Saturday early-game college football picks for Saturday, October 12.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 7, here's the full piece.
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: 21-20-1 (51.2%)
- Overall: 120-90-2 (57.1%)
College Football Picks for Early Week 7 Games
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Iowa -2.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Buffalo +9.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Colorado State +1.5 |
  | 5 p.m. | Southern Miss +7 |
Iowa -2.5 vs. Washington
12 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX
This is a brutal situational spot for Washington, which will make another trip out east after coming back home following a trip out to Rutgers on a short week. Not only that, but this game will kick at 10 a.m. local time for the Huskies, who will be coming off an emotional victory over Michigan to exact National Championship revenge.
I backed Washington in that matchup, but that had more to do with how bad I think the Wolverines are this year.
It feels odd to say out loud, but Iowa has a more respectable passing attack than Michigan.
As a result, Washington can't solely focus on taking away the Hawkeye rushing attack, as Cade McNamara should be able to do just enough in the short passing attack to keep the Huskie defense honest.
That should open up opportunities for Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson to hit some explosive runs and exploit a Washington run defense that ranks below the national average in both Rush Success Rate and EPA per Rush.
Most importantly, in a game where points should come at a premium, I trust Iowa to win on the margins across the board, especially in terms of penalties and special teams. That's basically how Kirk Ferentz's teams have won games for decades against teams in their same weight class.
On the season, Washington ranks outside the top 100 in penalty yards per game (70.7), while Iowa ranks No. 1 overall at over 50 yards less on a per-game basis.
And if you go by SP+ rankings from a special teams perspective, Washington sits at No. 130, while Iowa finds itself in the top 25 as usual. Not only do the Huskies have major field goal issues — Grady Gross has made just 9-of-15 attempts — but they also have punting problems.
Expect Iowa to win the field-position battle and hit enough big runs with Johnson to come away with a typical ugly Iowa home victory.
Notable Nugget
Following a loss, Kirk Ferentz is 15-5-1 ATS at home as an underdog or favorite of less than a touchdown, covering by just under eight points per game on average.
Projection: Iowa -3.4
Pick: Iowa -2.5 or Better
Note: I prefer the ML in what profiles as a low-scoring game.
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Buffalo +9.5 vs. Toledo
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPNU
On the surface, this is one of the best situational spots on the board.
Toledo could come out very sleepy for a noon kick in Buffalo after getting its MAC Championship revenge over Miami (OH) last week with two more massive MAC games on deck against Bowling Green and Northern Illinois that will in all likelihood determine if it will make it back to Detroit.
Meanwhile, Buffalo is coming off a bye week after getting embarrassed by UConn in what was a pretty poor spot after pulling off a major upset on the road against Northern Illinois.
With so much roster and staff turnover in the offseason, the off week should be super beneficial for Pete Lembo's bunch.
From a matchup perspective, Toledo has no semblance of a rushing attack (100th in Success Rate) after losing quarterback Dequan Finn and running back Peny Boone to the transfer portal.
Consequently, the entire offense is completely reliant on Tucker Gleason airing it out to an outstanding group of pass-catchers for MAC standards. However, Buffalo's defense has fared significantly better against the pass, ranking 20th in EPA.
Gleason is also extremely inconsistent, rotating between productive and messy games through five weeks. When he's on, the Rockets look competent on offense. However, he will have some weeks where he simply can't hit sand if he fell off of a camel.
Look no further than Toledo's home game against UMass in which Gleason connected on only 8-of-23 attempts in a fortunate 38-23 victory in which the Rockets were outgained, 384-267.
If you want to compare similar data points, Buffalo beat that same UMass team at home by a score of 34-3 with a 314-193 yardage edge.
Historically, Toledo head coach Jason Candle has had stinkers in this exact spot, so I wouldn't be surprised if Buffalo uglies this game up enough to pull off another league upset, especially if Gleason has an off day and puts the ball in harm's way.
Notable Nugget
In MAC play, touchdown-plus underdogs in games with a total below 47 have gone 48-35-1 ATS (57.8%) since 2005.
Projection: Buffalo +7
Pick: Buffalo +9 or Better · Waiting to see if I can get a +10
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Colorado State +1.5 vs. San Jose State
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ truTV
I'm going back to the well with the Rams after they got to the window for me last week in an unlucky overtime loss against Oregon State.
The same logic applies this week, as Colorado State simply got much healthier on both sides of the ball during the bye week before that matchup with the Beavers.
Wide receiver Tory Horton is now back at full strength, as evidenced by his nine-catch, 158-yard performance last week. Meanwhile, the defense also got some key starters back.
This is also a matchup between two teams that have had major discrepancies in strength of schedule, which I think is creating some value on the small home 'dog.
While Colorado State has losses to Oregon State, Texas and Colorado, the Spartans started off the season with three wins against hilariously bad competition in Air Force, Kennesaw State and Sacramento State.
They most recently came back to win in the final minute at home over an improved Nevada squad, but the combined record of the four teams they beat is 1-16 against FBS completion.
While San Jose State is better than I expected, color me not impressed with a strength of schedule that ranks outside the top 135 (including FCS teams). Compare that to Colorado State, which has a strength of schedule that ranks above the national average to date.
Hypothetically, if Colorado State won that coin-flip game against Oregon State and San Jose State lost to Sacramento State (a game that was back-and-forth until the end) and Nevada, I don't believe the Rams would be home 'dogs here.
Additionally, some drama may be brewing with the Spartans, who made a quarterback change last week from Emmett Brown — who was seen smashing his helmet into the ground after being taken out — to Walker Eget.
We'll see how that plays out this week, but it's definitely worth noting for a team that can't run the ball a lick with both signal-callers expected to split time with the 1s in practice leading up to this week's game in Fort Collins.
The Colorado State cornerback room remains a major concern, so let's just hope they actually cover Nick Nash — otherwise, this will turn into a complete shootout, as I do expect the Rams to get Avery Morrow going on the ground, which should set up plenty of opportunities for Horton on the perimeter.
As far as Group of Five wide receiver matchups go, this is as good as it gets with Nash vs. Horton.
Notable Nugget
Colorado State head coach Jay Norvell is 22-9 ATS (71%) as an underdog in Mountain West play, covering by just under five points per game.
Over the past 20 seasons, only three other coaches (among 492 in our Action Labs database) have turned a bigger profit in that role.
Projection: Colorado State -3.1
Pick: Colorado State -1 or Better
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Southern Miss +7 at Louisiana-Monroe
5 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
Southern Miss was potentially on quit watch after what I saw against Jacksonville State a few weeks back, but I actually saw some fight last Saturday in a 10-point loss (and easy cover) against a very good Louisiana team.
That gives me enough confidence to back the Golden Eagles, who also didn't pack it in late last year after a 1-7 start under Will Hall.
However, this is predominantly a fade of the Warhawks as seven-point favorites in a game with a super low total.
UL Monroe has exceeded all expectations after a complete rebuild in the offseason, but now we're asking a very limited offense that ranks in the bottom three nationally in both Rushing and Passing Success Rate to win by more than a touchdown.
After an upset over JMU (in which they were outgained 399-257), we have to be approaching the peak of the market on this surprise ULM squad that had previous victories over FCS Jackson State and a pair of dysfunctional FBS teams in Troy and UAB.
The Warhawks just simply don't profile as a team that you want to lay points with since they play as slow as any team in the country.
The Southern Miss run defense worries me a bit, but it can load the box here to take away Ahmad Hardy and at least keep this within one score against a team that has benefited from extremely fortunate field position all season so far.
Believe it or not, Southern Miss actually has the superior offense in this matchup.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, over a sample size of 480 games, road conference dogs of seven or more have cashed at north of a 60% clip in games with a total of less than 46.
Projection: Southern Miss +4.5
Pick: Southern Miss +6.5 or Better
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