I'll begin the Week 8 college football slate with three noon NCAAF picks for Saturday, October 19.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 8, here's the full piece.
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: 29-22-1 (56.9%)
- Overall: 128-92-2 (58.2%)
NCAAF Picks for Week 8 Noon Games
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | East Carolina +16.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Auburn +5.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Nebraska +7 |
East Carolina +16.5 at Army
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2
I'm starting the day out by fading Army, which has gone 6-0 against the spread to start the season. What could possibly go wrong?
Well, for one, ECU could turn the ball over a million times, which the Pirates have done all season. I'm hoping a bit of positive regression hits in that area with ECU ranking 118th (-6) and Army in the top 10 (+7).
I also don't expect the Army defense to continue its outrageous success in the red zone with opponents scoring on only 41% of trips inside the 20 this season, which leads the nation. For reference, the Texas defense ranks second at 57%.
Army's offense has also scored touchdowns on an unsustainable 22-of-24 red-zone trips, while ECU has had one of the worst-performing red-zone offenses in the entire country in a metric that has plenty of short-term variance.
An extremely soft schedule that ranks 156th in the country including FCS teams has certainly helped juice up a lot of its metrics across the board. Army's six wins have come against the following teams:
- Lehigh
- Florida Atlantic
- Rice
- Temple
- UAB
- Tulsa
Not a single one of those five FBS opponents ranks inside the top 100 of my current power ratings with an average ranking outside the top 120. That's as easy as it possibly gets through six weeks.
ECU will also benefit from coming off a bye week (after an embarrassing loss to Charlotte), which is always beneficial against a service academy offense.
Army has gone back to its basic triple-option attack with a bit more modern principles, which this ECU defense should have plenty of familiarity with since it has faced Navy in each of the past five seasons.
From a metrics standpoint, ECU also fits the profile of a defense that can slow down Army's vaunted ground game led by quarterback Bryson Daily. The Pirates rank in the top 10 nationally in Rush Success Rate, EPA per Rush, Line Yards and Stuff Rate. That's the formula for containing this Army offense.
I also still have questions about the Army defense, which has played a bunch of carcasses, yet still ranks outside the top 90 in Success Rate.
While ECU has not been the model of consistency on offense primarily due to killer turnovers, it has flashed at times and has playmakers at the skill positions.
To me, this is the very tippy-top of the market on Army. And not only am I selling high on the Black Knights, but I'm buying low on the Pirates after the debacle against Charlotte.
This is still a team that's two blown 17-0 leads against Liberty and App State away from sitting at 5-1 overall. It doesn't hurt that it's coming off of a bye and has a plus-run defense.
Notable Nugget
Historically, service academies have only covered at a 41% clip as favorites of 14 or more points.
Projection: East Carolina +11.7
Pick: East Carolina +14 or Better
| | |
Auburn +5.5 at Missouri
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
Are we positive Missouri is even a top-20 team? I have the Tigers power-rated right on the fringe, but it wouldn't surprise me if they continue to fall throughout the season.
Their three data points against quality competition are not very encouraging. They should have lost at home to Vanderbilt, got utterly destroyed at Texas A&M, and won by six after trailing by double digits against Boston College in Columbia.
The other three data points are basically useless for a team that has faced a strength of schedule that ranks outside the top 100 nationally.
The Missouri offense just hasn’t looked right this year. The explosives are missing, and the Tigers may be without Nate Noel, who has been their most productive back this year, averaging 6.0 yards per carry compared to Marcus Carroll’s 4.8.
Meanwhile, Auburn has actually fared better statistically against a drastically more difficult schedule that should have resulted in a couple more wins if not for some untimely turnovers. On the season, against that tougher slate, Auburn has a half-yard edge over Missouri in terms of net yards per play.
Coming into the season, I had major questions about this Missouri defense after key losses at certain positions along the defensive line, linebacker and especially in the secondary.
None of those questions have been answered so far, which is definitely concerning against an Auburn offense that has proven it can move the ball against top-tier defenses.
If Payton Thorne can just avoid the costly turnovers — a big if — the Auburn offense will have ample opportunities for success both through the air and on the ground.
Outside of the mistakes, Thorne has actually been very good this season and substantially better than freshman Hank Brown, who clearly wasn't ready to play quarterback at this level, so keep in mind his 90 snaps are even suppressing Auburn's offensive numbers a bit.
Simply put, I just don't have much separating these teams at the moment.
If Auburn doesn't blow a pair of games it dominated statistically (+300 net yards combined) with costly mistakes (-4 turnover margin) against Arkansas and Oklahoma, this line would probably sit closer to a field goal — especially if Missouri didn't pull out that double-overtime victory against Vanderbilt.
I also didn't even mention Auburn's one-possession home loss to Cal earlier this season when it had a -5 turnover margin.
Plus, while Missouri will head home after a long two-game road trip that took it from College Station to Amherst, Auburn will benefit from a much-needed bye week after an early-season gauntlet.
Hugh Freeze is still one of the best offensive game-planners in the country, so I'd expect a super sharp script and a few wrinkles throughout the game that may catch a vulnerable Missouri defense by surprise.
Notable Nugget
Auburn head coach Hugh Freeze is 30-14 ATS (68.2%) as an underdog, covering by 6.5 points per game. That includes an 18-9 ATS record (66.7%) against SEC competition.
Projection: Auburn +3
Pick: Auburn +4.5 or Better
| | |
Nebraska +7 at Indiana
12 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX
A trend you'll notice this week is I'm backing a number of teams coming off byes with head coaches who have thrived as underdogs. This is another one that fits the bill with Matt Rhule — although it's worth mentioning that Indiana will also be coming off of a bye.
Indiana has been absolutely rolling under new head coach Curt Cignetti. All that guy does is win, and you can Google him if you don't believe me.
And while I came into the season higher than the market on this Hoosiers squad, I think we've reached the very peak of the market on IU, which has even started to get some College Football Playoff love.
This is still a team that has wins over the following teams:
- Florida International
- Western Illinois
- UCLA
- Charlotte
- Maryland
- Northwestern
Not exactly a murderer's row with none of those six ranking inside the top 50 of my latest power ratings.
This will obviously be a step up in class against a top-30 Nebraska team that's an overtime away from also sitting at 6-0.
If Illinois didn't make a miraculous interception in the end zone to get to overtime, we'd be talking about a huge battle of Big Ten undefeateds, and I can guarantee this spread would be sitting a few points lower than a touchdown.
I do still have some lingering questions about this Indiana defense, which allowed 24-plus points against Maryland (which amassed over 400 yards) and Northwestern, which were both within one possession at Indiana before the Hoosiers pulled away late.
The Nebraska defense will also provide the biggest resistance to date by a wide margin for Kurtis Rourke and the Hoosier offense.
Nobody loses more one-possession games than Nebraska, which is probably what happens in this one. Give me one order of corn in Bloomington.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, out of 595 coaches in our Action Labs database, Matt Rhule is the fifth-most profitable head coach as an underdog. Over that span, he's gone 35-18-1 ATS (66%) when catching points, covering by 4.3 points per game, including 19-9 (67.9%) on the road.
Projection: Nebraska +4.4
Pick: Nebraska +6.5 or Better
