We continue the Week 3 slate with four Saturday night college football predictions for Saturday night on Sept. 14.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 3, here's the full piece.
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: 3-3 (50%)
- Overall: 102-73-1 (58.3%)
College Football Predictions for Saturday Night
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | Georgia State +10.5 |
  | 7 p.m. | Kennesaw State +19.5 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | Mississippi State -11.5 |
  | 9 p.m. | Wyoming +11.5 |
Georgia State +10.5 vs. Vanderbilt
7 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
Off to a 2-0 start, Vanderbilt will travel to Atlanta for its first road game to take on Georgia State in a very trappy spot with Missouri and Alabama looming on deck to kick off SEC play.
The Commodores have definitely exceeded oddsmakers' expectations in their first two games.
They started off the season with an upset victory over Virginia Tech as two-touchdown underdogs and then took care of business in a 56-0 romp over lowly FCS Alcorn State last week.
However, I think the first win had more to do with the pristine spot and matchup for Vandy, which unveiled a brand-new offense the Hokies weren't prepared for.
Then, last weekend, it scored almost exclusively on short fields against an incompetent Braves bunch while adding a pair of late non-offensive touchdowns to make that score look more lopsided than reality.
While Vandy will intrigue me as a large underdog all season due to its service academy-esque style of play — run-heavy and slow-paced (look no further than its eight-minute field-goal drive to open up the game against Alcorn) — the opposite holds true for those same reasons when listed as a bigger favorite.
I also don't think Georgia State is as bad as many may have thought coming into the season after hitting the full reset button from both a roster and staff perspective.
Additionally, with so much attrition across the board, plus turmoil during the spring, it's a team that should improve more than most with live game action.
The Panthers actually held their own against Georgia Tech in their home opener but just couldn't capitalize in the red zone, scoring only three total points on three different goal-to-go situations.
I like the staff and quarterback Christian Veilleux, who has previous experience against P4 competition.
I won't sit here and wax poetic about the roster, but it's not a bottom-10 team. I have these teams separated on a neutral field by less than double digits.
Throw in home-field advantage, the tricky situational spot and Vandy's style of play, and this becomes a play at anything above 10.
Pick: Georgia State +10 or Better
Kennesaw State +19.5 at San Jose State
7 p.m. ET ⋅ truTV
This looks like a decent spot to sell San Jose State as a pretty big favorite without much of a home-field advantage.
Despite a 2-0 start against San Jose State and Air Force, outside of wide receiver Nick Nash — one of my favorite players in all of college football — I haven't been overly impressed with the rebuilt Spartans.
They did go up to Colorado Springs last week and take care of business against the Falcons, but that may have said more about what I think will be one of the worst Air Force teams in quite some time. Plus, new head coach Ken Niumatalolo knows how to defend the triple option, which certainly helped in preparing for that matchup.
Keep in mind that Air Force had similarly dreadful offensive numbers in Week 1 against FCS Merrimack, which gave up 56 to UConn in the first half last Saturday.
Additionally, remember that SJSU closed as only a 2.5-point favorite at home against Sacramento State in its opener. While it won and covered, that game was in the balance until late.
For what it's worth, I only have Sacramento State favored by a little over a touchdown against the Owls.
Look, Kennesaw State is a bad (and undersized) football team by every measure. In fact, I have the Owls power-rated dead last among 134 FBS teams.
They could potentially improve with time in their first season at the FBS level, but this is more about selling high on San Jose State after a 2-0 start with a date with Washington State on deck on a short week.
The Owls run more of a spread-based option attack with a high rush rate. That should help limit the possessions, making it harder for the Spartans to cover such a big number — although I'd ideally like to get +21 here.
Pick: Kennesaw State +19.5 (Play to +18.5)
| | | |
Mississippi State -11.5 vs. Toledo
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPNU
While I'm a bit concerned about the volume of defensive snaps the Bulldogs played in the Tempe heat last week, Toledo's defense saw even more against a UMass team that went up and down the field with ease all afternoon in the Glass Bowl.
I'm just not a fan of this Rockets roster, which lost an abundance of talent on the defensive side of the ball in addition to quarterback DeQuan Finn and all five starting offensive linemen.
Toledo did end up beating lowly UMass by 15 last week, but that was an extremely misleading final score, aided by a kick-return touchdown and a late score after UMass committed multiple personal fouls following a failed desperation onside kick attempt.
How ugly was it in reality? Toledo had a paltry 26% Success Rate (first percentile) against a Minutemen team that finished with 44 more plays from scrimmage.
The Rockets basically won that game with special teams (TD and average starting field position near midfield) and undisciplined UMass penalties. Overall, the Rockets finished a net +14 EPA in penalties and special teams.
But on a down-to-down basis, UMass was the better football team, averaging almost six more plays and 20 more yards on a per-drive basis. Both sides of the ball have taken a major step backward for Toledo.
For example, when Toledo beat UMass last season, it ran the ball 39 times for 375 yards — an average of 9.6 yards per carry. This year, those numbers plummeted to 22 rushes for 83 yards (3.8), while new quarterback Tucker Gleason completed only eight of his 23 pass attempts.
For his career, Gleason now has a sub-49% completion rate on over 200 attempts against much lesser competition than he'll face on Saturday night. The skill positions are still good, but the rest of the offense is significantly worse.
Meanwhile, Mississippi State went down against Arizona State after a valiant comeback effort. But the Bulldogs were actually a bit better overall in a number of statistical categories, averaging over a full yard per play more with a superior Success Rate and EPA per Play numbers.
They were just done in by turnovers (-10 net turnover EPA), including an ASU scoop-and-score touchdown following a sack. The defensive line remains a major liability, but I don't think Toledo's brand-new offensive line is capable of generating push.
On the other side of the ball, Mississippi State's uptempo offense under new head coach Jeff Lebby should have plenty of opportunities to exploit a Toledo defense that lost its top two pass-rushers and all three starting cornerbacks — one to Wisconsin and two others to the NFL, including first-round draft pick Quinyon Mitchell.
The most effective way to attack the Toledo defense is via deep vertical shots, which Lebby will certainly call plenty of.
The Rockets even let a rebuilt Duquesne squad move the ball some on them in their opener, which looks much worse after the Dukes did absolutely nothing (135 total yards) against Boston College in Week 2.
Give me the more talented home favorite that will maximize the number of possessions in a game where it should enjoy significant matchup advantages on both sides of the ball against a Toledo team I don't think the market has fully adjusted down enough yet.
Pick: Mississippi State -11.5 (Play to -12.5 · Waiting to See if Toledo Money Comes In)
Wyoming +11.5 vs. BYU
9 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
This is undoubtedly ugly, but that's nothing new if you've been reading this article the past few seasons. I live in the trash can.
The Pokes have looked lost through two games, but this is a tricky spot for the Cougars, who will travel to Laramie (underrated home-field advantage) for a second straight road game after an upset win at SMU with a huge home game against conference foe Kansas State on deck.
Wyoming got absolutely blasted in Tempe to start the season, then lost at home to FCS Idaho in Week 2.
However, I think it's potentially time to buy low on the double-digit home 'dog in a game where points should come at a premium, as evidenced by a super low total of 40.5.
There have been all kinds of offensive issues, starting with quarterback Evan Svoboda, who has been grossly ineffective. In fairness, he hasn't had much help from a struggling redshirt freshman left tackle and an extremely underwhelming group of wide receivers, who have a sky-high 28% drop rate (usually don't see anything north of 20%).
The good news is tight end John Michael Gyllenborg should make his season debut this week as Wyoming's most reliable weapon in the passing game.
New head coach Jay Sawvel also hinted at potentially running Svoboda with a much higher frequency. I think that's the prudent approach with the struggling young signal-caller, especially against a BYU defense that remains a bit vulnerable against mobile quarterbacks.
On the other side of the ball, BYU will have to make do without its top two running backs (a year after losing one to the NFL) due to injury, while Wyoming will get starting safety Isaac White back.
That should help against BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff, who I'm still not totally sold on.
After a strong opener against FCS Southern Illinois, Retzlaff didn't look great against SMU. And in five career games against FBS competition, he has only four big-time throws to 12 turnover-worthy plays, per PFF.
While the Cougars did pull off the upset in Dallas in an ugly slugfest, that result may have said more about SMU, which also almost lost outright as more than a three-touchdown favorite at Nevada in Week 0.
I could look foolish here. Maybe Wyoming is just complete toast this season. But that wouldn't be the first nor last time I've done that.
I'm willing to take a stab and buy low (while also selling high) on the double-digit home pup in a game with a total of 40.5.
Notable Nugget
While the sample size isn't significant, for what it's worth, road favorites of a touchdown-plus after pulling off an upset as double-digit underdogs the week prior have not fared well historically
Pick: Wyoming +11.5 (Play to +11)
