We begin the Week 5 slate with two Saturday noon college football predictions for Saturday, Sept. 28.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 5, here's the full piece.
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: 9-13 (40.9%)
- Overall: 108-83-1 (56.6%)
College Football Predictions for Saturday at Noon
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Baylor -2.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | UAB +3.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | USF +5.5 |
Baylor -2.5 vs. BYU
12 p.m. ET ⋅ FS1
This is simple handicapping here with Baylor.
The Bears should have won and covered at Colorado last week if not for a game-sealing missed field goal followed by a Hail Mary on the last play of the game and a fumble out of the end zone at the 1-yard line in overtime as the cherry on top of a colossal meltdown.
Meanwhile, BYU improved to 4-0 on the season after upsetting Kansas State, but that was a very flukey result in which the Cougars were outgained at home, 367-241.
Look no further than a six-minute stretch of game time after BYU kicked a field goal late in the first half to cut Kansas State's lead to 6-3. The following then occurred:
- Scoop-and-score touchdown
- Short-field touchdown drive after an interception
- Another short-field touchdown drive after another interception
- Punt return touchdown
Just like that … 28 points with just 56 total yards of offense. Pretty efficient, eh?
Kansas State also shot itself in the foot with costly penalties.
That win had much more to do with Kanas State than BYU, in my opinion. I can say the same thing for BYU's upset win over SMU when the Mustangs were still in complete disarray prior to their bye week.
The Cougars will still be without starting running back LJ Martin this week, and Jake Retzlaff likely has some looming turnover regression heading his way. He has thrown nine touchdowns to just three interceptions in 2024 despite only five Big-Time Throws to six Turnover-Worthy Plays.
I had no interest in ever backing the Bears with Dequan Finn — who I didn't think was a P4-level starting quarterback — under center but now don't mind that proposition with Sawyer Robertson taking over.
Baylor simply started the year with the wrong starting quarterback.
The offense is still pretty limited, and starting tackle Campbell Barrington did get banged up last game, which might make it even harder for this run game to get going.
However, the quick-passing game is much more functional with Robertson at the helm, and he can still have some success with his legs, which is an area where BYU struggles to defend.
Baylor has been pretty reliant on explosive plays on offense, which BYU has done a tremendous job of taking away so far this year, so that's a battle worth watching.
On the other side of the ball, I do think the Baylor defense is improved overall with Dave Aranda taking back the reins there. Until the final parts of the game, the Bears did a pretty good job of limiting a very explosive Colorado passing attack.
Flip those two results last week, and I don't think Baylor is a home favorite of under a field goal.
As long as they don't quit on Aranda, whose seat may be getting warmer in Waco, I like the Bears to take care of business at home against the newly-ranked Cougars, who may be at the peak of their market value.
Notable Nugget
Road dogs off a win in which they were outgained by 100-plus yards have hit at just a 37% clip ATS historically.
My Projection: Baylor -4.2
Pick: Baylor -3 or Better
UAB +3.5 vs. Navy
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2
Believe it or not, Navy sits atop the AAC standings (along with Army) at 2-0, while UAB has yet to play a conference game. However, the Blazers' first league game of 2024 does come in a pretty good spot on paper.
I will say that service academies aren't as likely to fall victim to certain situational spots as other schools. They usually just show up each week and handle their business.
However, this spot is too good to pass up since the line has risen from a PK on the open (which I thought was fair) out past a field goal.
Navy heads south to Birmingham for a noon kick one week after pulling off a huge, emotional upset over Memphis in a wild game that featured 100 total points.
In that victory, quarterback Blake Horvath ran for over 200 yards and four touchdowns to go along with two more through the air. It was a banner day for the Navy signal-caller, who appears to be thriving in the new-look triple-option attack under offensive coordinator Drew Cronic.
With Air Force also on deck, there's a chance the Mids potentially come out a little flat.
Maybe even more importantly, UAB just had a bye week, which always carries more significance ahead of a matchup against a unique offensive scheme. As a result, the staff has had two weeks to analyze three game films of Navy's new offensive wrinkles.
The Blazers also faced the Navy triple-option last season in a 31-6 defeat in Annapolis in a game that was actually 10-6 in the fourth quarter before a late nuclear meltdown.
UAB looked horrid in a loss to UL Monroe but did look much better in a close loss at Arkansas, which has aged well considering the Hogs won at Auburn and should have won at Oklahoma State.
On paper, the Blazers' short-passing attack should find success against a suspect Navy defense that was just on the field for 35 minutes (rare occurrence for them) against Memphis, which racked up 659 total yards of offense.
The moneyline might actually be the better option here since Navy has kicker issues and is much more likely to go for it on fourth down, decreasing the chances that the Mids win by 1-3 points.
Although, now that I typed that out, I'm sure that's exactly what will happen.
Notable Nugget
UAB is 18-11-1 ATS (62.1%) as a home dog since 2007, covering by an average margin of just under four points per game.
My Projection: UAB +1.3
Pick: UAB +3 or Better · ML Might Be Better Option
USF +5.5 at Tulane
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPNU
I faded Tulane last week and am going back to the well after what I saw at Louisiana. Yes, the Green Wave — who closed as only a one-point favorite — won and covered, but the Ragin' Cajuns outgained them, 421-355, and averaged 1.3 more yards per play.
So, what happened? Well, Tulane had everything possible go its way, including a pick-six in the final minute of the first half followed by a kick return for a touchdown to open the second half.
Even with those two non-offensive touchdowns over the course of a minute of game time, ULL still had a shot to tie it late. However, it couldn't overcome bad fourth-down variance (1-for-3 on the day vs. 1-for-1 for Tulane) or two dropped picks in addition to the aforementioned pair of fluke scores.
Meanwhile, South Florida has had two very misleading final scores against Alabama and Miami over the course of three weeks.
The Bulls trailed by one in the fourth quarter in Tuscaloosa before the Tide piled on late. Against Miami, they trailed by just seven at the half and then were driving to pull within 14 at the start of the fourth quarter when quarterback Byrum Brown left with an injury.
It got out of hand from there. Brown apparently could have come back if needed, so there are no concerns from an injury perspective there.
You could argue USF could have some fatigue after playing two top-10 teams over the course of three weeks, but Tulane is in a similar boat after playing Kansas State, Oklahoma and Louisiana, with the latter two coming on the road the past two weeks.
New Tulane quarterback Darian Mensah had a very impressive game against Kansas State, but he also benefited from a multitude of coverage busts.
He has since come back down to earth against Oklahoma and Louisiana, throwing for 83 yards last week while getting away with two bad throws.
On the season, he has six touchdown passes to two interceptions but has an equal amount of Big-Time Throws to Turnover-Worthy Plays, per PFF.
He's certainly been a bit fortunate and still has room to grow, as you'd expect for a freshman. I still also have major questions about the Tulane offensive line (Mensah has been pressured on over 40% of his dropbacks) and lack of pass rush off the edge.
I actually didn't come into the season as high on USF as others but have noticed some real defensive progress from a more experienced unit that also added some key transfers — although the bar was pretty low.
Lastly, USF has a kicker advantage with Tulane's starting kicker dealing with a groin injury.
I do think this could turn into a shootout, but I'll take the points with the superior quarterback in a matchup of two teams I power-rate pretty similarly.
Tulane has been a cash cow at Yulman Stadium over the past decade, but I do think a noon kick helps the road team here in a very important game in the AAC race.
Notable Nugget
Over the past 10 seasons, no team has had more ATS success in home games than Tulane at 38-20-1 (65.5%) against the closing number.
My Projection: USF +3.1
Pick: USF +5 or Better
