Saturday NCAAF Picks, Best Bets Afternoon Predictions for Week 7
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
| 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
A loaded Week 7 college football slate rolls on with juicy afternoon games, including the Red River Rivalry and No. 4 Penn State going on the road to Pasadena to play USC.
One of those games is featured in our experts' top college football best bets for Saturday's afternoon slate.
So, dive in below for NCAAF predictions for Week 7, including afternoon best bets for Penn State vs. USC and more on October 12.
 |  |  |
Penn State vs. USC NCAAF Pick
Runways, runways, runways – there’s been so much talk about runways in State College this week.
But the real “runway” that will define this matchup is Penn State running its way right through a weak USC defensive front, and the Nittany Lions’ defense running way too much in the USC backfield for the Trojans to have success.
Penn State’s Nick Singleton missed last week for an undisclosed injury, but I expect him to be right back this week with a 100-yard outing.
He and Kaytron Allen help the Nittany Lions average 217.8 yards per game, which ranks 19th in the country.
The Trojans have been molly-whopped at the line of scrimmage against Big Ten teams that prioritize the run. Michigan and Minnesota rushed for 290 and 193 yards, respectively, against USC, with each scoring three rushing touchdowns.
A heavy dose of Singleton and Allen is a nightmare scenario for the Trojans’ defensive line.
Defensively for Penn State, while USC is an efficient running team, the Nittany Lions rank fourth in Rush Success and second in line yards. They’ll bottle up the USC ground game enough to force Miller Moss to make plays.
Moss is coming off the worst game of his career last week against Minnesota. The Trojans’ offense ranks 59th in Havoc, while Penn State’s defense is fourth in that metric, so Moss will be under constant duress.
The Trojans have recorded eight turnovers in three games against Big Ten opponents. Constant Nittany Lions pressure is only going to ratchet the number up even more.
This game will be won in the trenches – an area Penn State has a clear advantage in – making it the perfect candidate to land the plane on this bet, runway size be damned.
Pick: Penn State -3.5 (Play to -4)
| | | |
Penn State vs. USC NCAAF Pick
With their win last week over UCLA at home, the Nittany Lions became the only school in the
country to begin with a 5-0 start in the past four years.
Penn State will now face its biggest test thus far when it heads west to face USC on Saturday afternoon.
The addition of Andy Kotelnicki as coordinator, a position he held for three seasons at Kansas, has improved the Nittany Lions' offense from 51st (+0.02) in Adjusted Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play) up to ninth (+0.20).
The Nittany Lions can also better control games with their rushing attack, an area in which USC’s defense has particularly struggled.
Although the Trojans upset LSU in Week 1 on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, it’s possible they reached their peak the first week of the season.
Perhaps I can understand USC’s 27-24 loss to the defending champion Michigan Wolverines. However, I can’t forgive its listless performance in a 24-17 loss to Minnesota.
The Trojans' defense ranks 90th in EPA/Rush (+0.06) and 102nd in opponent yards per carry (5.0).
Michigan defeated USC despite recording just 32 passing yards in the game.
The Wolverines racked up 290 yards on the ground, yet it’s Penn State (31st) that ranks higher than Michigan (45th) in EPA/Rush.
It’s worth noting that Minnesota put up 193 rushing yards against USC, and it’s further down the list (67th) in EPA/Rush.
While the Nittany Lions have struggled in marquee games against teams they’ll play later in the year, October is when you want to ride this team when they’re under a touchdown favorite.
According to the Action Labs database, as an opening favorite in this spot during October, Penn State is a healthy 15-3-1 (83.3%) against the spread.
Pick: Penn State -3.5
| | | |
Purdue vs. Illinois NCAAF Pick
By Greg Waddell
A well-rested team and a revenge spot? Sign me up.
Current Purdue head coach Ryan Walters made his way to Purdue after departing from his role as the defensive coordinator at Illinois.
This move surprised many Illinois fans, and last season, Walters made his presence felt in this game. The Boilermakers beat the Fighting Illini by a final score of 44-19.
Since then, quite a few things have changed.
The Illini are ranked 23rd in the country and have largely taken care of business this year, winning on the road at Nebraska and even giving Penn State a competitive ball game in Happy Valley.
This week, Illinois enters this game off a bye week following its 14-point loss to Penn State. Expect a prepared, well-rested version of the Illini.
On the other side, Purdue fired offensive coordinator Graham Harrell two weeks ago and was rewarded with a six-point effort against Wisconsin that featured nine scoreless drives in 11 attempts.
Offense wasn’t the only problem though, as the Boilermakers allowed a mediocre Wisconsin offense (led by backup quarterback Braedyn Locke) to total 589 total yards and 52 points. Woof.
When Purdue doesn’t match up from a talent perspective, it’s gotten absolutely decimated in blowouts this year, losing to Notre Dame by 59 points, Oregon State by 17 points, Nebraska by 18 points and Wisconsin by 46 points.
Illinois is the second-best team in that group, at least. And the Illini have a reason to run this one up given last year’s result.
Pick: Illinois -21
| | | |
San Jose State vs. Colorado State NCAAF Pick
By Stuckey
I'm going back to the well with the Rams after they got to the window for me last week in an unlucky overtime loss against Oregon State.
The same logic applies this week, as Colorado State simply got much healthier on both sides of the ball during the bye week before that matchup with the Beavers.
Wide receiver Tory Horton is now back at full strength, as evidenced by his nine-catch, 158-yard performance last week. Meanwhile, the defense also got some key starters back.
This is also a matchup between two teams that have had major discrepancies in strength of schedule, which I think is creating some value on the small home 'dog.
While Colorado State has losses to Oregon State, Texas and Colorado, the Spartans started off the season with three wins against hilariously bad competition in Air Force, Kennesaw State and Sacramento State.
They most recently came back to win in the final minute at home over an improved Nevada squad, but the combined record of the four teams they beat is 1-16 against FBS completion.
While San Jose State is better than I expected, color me not impressed with a strength of schedule that ranks outside the top 135 (including FCS teams). Compare that to Colorado State, which has a strength of schedule that ranks above the national average to date.
Hypothetically, if Colorado State won that coin-flip game against Oregon State and San Jose State lost to Sacramento State (a game that was back-and-forth until the end) and Nevada, I don't believe the Rams would be home 'dogs here.
Additionally, some drama may be brewing with the Spartans, who made a quarterback change last week from Emmett Brown — who was seen smashing his helmet into the ground after being taken out — to Walker Eget.
We'll see how that plays out this week, but it's definitely worth noting for a team that can't run the ball a lick with both signal-callers expected to split time with the 1s in practice leading up to this week's game in Fort Collins.
The Colorado State cornerback room remains a major concern, so let's just hope they actually cover Nick Nash — otherwise, this will turn into a complete shootout, as I do expect the Rams to get Avery Morrow going on the ground, which should set up plenty of opportunities for Horton on the perimeter.
As far as Group of Five wide receiver matchups go, this is as good as it gets with Nash vs. Horton.
Pick: Colorado State +1.5
| | | |
