We continue a loaded NCAAF Week 4 slate with picks and two afternoon spots, including Auburn vs. Texas A&M and Colorado vs. Oregon.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 4, here's the full piece.
- 2022: 45-20-1 +22.82 units (69.2%)
- 2023: 9-5-0 +3.38 units (64.3%)
- Overall: 54-25-1 +26.20 units (68.3%)
Stuckey's 3 Afternoon NCAAF Situational Spots
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 p.m. | Texas A&M -7.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Oregon -21 |
Texas A&M -7.5 vs. Auburn
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
In my opinion, Auburn is getting too much love for its 3-0 start against UMass, Samford and Cal.
The first two are fairly meaningless results against cupcakes, but Cal actually outgained Auburn, 273-230, in a game the Tigers needed a fourth-quarter touchdown drive (that included a third-and-17 conversion) to pull out a 14-10 victory.
I loved the Hugh Freeze hire, but it's going to take him time to get this thing fully turned around.
Meanwhile, I think many are still just remembering the Texas A&M loss at Miami. That's natural when there are so few marquee matchup results early in the season, but that's a game against a Hurricanes team that I believe is very real.
From a situational spot perspective, you better believe Texas A&M has had this game circled since last season. During its embarrassing 5-7 campaign, the low point came toward the end of the season when A&M suffered its seventh and final loss of 2022 at Auburn.
The Aggies limped into that game shorthanded and demoralized from a disappointing year and left even more dejected after losing 13-10 in a game where Auburn quarterback Robby Ashford finished 6-of-13 passing for a meager 60 yards and two interceptions.
So, how did Auburn win? It ran the ball 55 times for 270 yards. Texas A&M then had to watch Cadillac Williams and the fans in Jordan Hare celebrate like they just won a national title.
I'm sure that taste is still in their mouths. They must be foaming at the mouth for a shot at revenge in their own house this time.
Additionally, from a matchup perspective, Auburn still can't throw the ball, which is how Miami came out victorious against the Aggies.
Texas A&M has seemingly fixed its run defense issues based on all of the top-10 national rankings in the underlying metrics. The struggles in that department last season were truly mind-boggling when you consider all of the talent it had up front. I'm not sure how Auburn will really move the ball with any consistency.
Meanwhile, A&M also has a more potent offense with a much more modern scheme under new offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino.
Jimbo has let me down before as a favorite, but this looks like a prime spot to back the Aggies, who should be out for blood.
Notable Nugget
At Texas A&M, Fisher owns a stellar 14-6 ATS record (70%) when favored by more than a touchdown at home.
Oregon -21 vs. Colorado
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
Since 2005, no team has enjoyed more success as a home favorite against the spread in conference play than Oregon. Over that span, the Ducks have gone 73-53-3 (57.9%) ATS when laying points against Pac-12 foes, and I think they add another cover to that list.
I didn't get involved with Colorado in the first two games of the season but felt confident enough to fade the Buffaloes last week after gathering their first two data points. Fortunately, I never had to sweat the Rams covering three touchdowns in a double-overtime thriller.
Well, with another data point in hand, I have no issues fading Colorado once again.
Look, Deion has already done a tremendous job in Boulder in such a short period of time. It's hard to put into words how bad this team was in 2022.
However, while improved, the roster still has major holes, specifically along the offensive line and across the entire defense, especially now without injured two-way star Travis Hunter, who will miss a few weeks.
If we dig a little deeper into Colorado's three results so far, it shocked TCU in the season opener but likely benefited immensely from the Horned Frogs having no idea what to expect from the Colorado offense. Then, Nebraska literally fumbled the game away with completely incompetent quarterback play. Then, it should have lost at home to a pretty bad Colorado State team that committed 17 penalties for 182 yards.
I just don't see a world where home Bo Nix doesn't march the potent Duck offense up and down the field all day long in Autzen Stadium. Meanwhile, Dan Lanning should have a very astute game plan to slow down this one-dimensional Colorado attack after getting three games of film.
The improved Oregon pass rush should also wreak Havoc in the backfield on the known passing downs that Colorado has made an unsustainable living on through three games. Plus, I think Oregon wants to run this up to make a statement, so I don't envision the foot stepping off the gas with a big lead, especially with Stanford followed by a bye week on deck.
Bo Nix Heisman hype season should be in full effect.
I'm waiting to see if any Colorado money comes in before locking in -21, which is what I'd play this up to.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, in games between two ranked opponents, favorites of 17 or more points have gone 38-23 ATS (62.3%), covering by 4.7 points per game. That includes a 14-4 ATS mark (70%) when favored by 21-plus against a conference opponent.
