In a Big Ten matchup, the Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-1) head to West Lafayette to take on the Purdue Boilermakers (1-2) at 12 p.m. ET on Peacock on Saturday.
Nebraska seemed like it had last week in the bag, but then it crumbled in the fourth quarter against Illinois. Quarterback Dylan Raiola looks like the real deal, though, and it didn’t seem like the lights were too bright for the true freshman.
Starting the season with a 49-0 blowout against Indiana State, it seemed like the Boilermakers were on the right track. Boy, was I ever wrong. The following week, they got brutalized by Notre Dame, 66-7, and suffered a 38-21 loss to Oregon State last week.
Nebraska is favored on the spread by 10 points against Purdue, and the total is set at 47. Meanwhile, the Cornhuskers are -380 on the moneyline.
Where does the betting value lie in this Big Ten matchup? Read further for my Nebraska vs. Purdue prediction.
Nebraska vs Purdue Prediction
- Nebraska vs Purdue Pick: Nebraska -10.5
My Nebraska vs Purdue best bet is on Cornhuskers spread, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Nebraska vs Purdue Odds
| Nebraska Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | -380 |
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | +300 |
- Nebraska vs Purdue Point Spread: Nebraska -10 (-110) · Purdue +10 (-110)
- Nebraska vs Purdue Total: Over/Under 47 (-110o / -110u)
- Nebraska vs Purdue Moneyline: Nebraska -380 · Purdue +300
Nebraska vs Purdue Preview
Nebraska Cornhuskers Betting Preview: Recovering from Week 3
My fascination with Raiola is well-documented since before the season started. He’s completing passes at a 74% rate, with eight passing touchdowns and only two interceptions.
For a true freshman, those are astounding numbers. Factor in that Nebraska ranks 33rd in Passing Play Success Rate — while also placing 30th in explosiveness and 35th in PPA — and the freshman has transformed it into an exciting offensive team.
Raiola has formed an insane connection with senior receiver Isaiah Neyor, who had two touchdowns last week. Redshirt junior Jahmal Banks has also made a solid impact this season, especially with a 94-yard performance against Illinois.
On the ground, the Huskers have a really solid foundation. Dante Dowdell looks like an absolute stud, averaging five yards per carry, and Emmett Johnson and Rahmir Johnson are both strong.
This three-headed monster has helped Nebraska notch the 42nd-best rushing game in college football and a ranking of 39 in PPA.
I can truly see these three feasting against Purdue’s defense, a group that's allowed a combined 723 rushing yards in the past two games.
What you may have noticed is that the Huskers’ defense is still intact. Even though last season Nebraska was a joke on the offensive end, it was as stout as possible defensively.
The Huskers have halted the run game, allowing only 377 yards combined this season. That includes stopping Colorado, while only getting beat a few times against Illinois last week.
Despite that, Nebraska still hasn’t allowed a rusher of 70+ yards, and I don’t see that streak getting snapped.
Stopping the pass hasn’t been hard for the Huskers as they have a solid duo in the secondary in Malcolm Hartzog Jr. and Tommi Hill. Those two have accounted for three interceptions.
Purdue Boilermakers Betting Preview: A Lot of Uncertainties
The Boilermakers seem to be all over the place to start the season, and I don’t know what to make of them.
Quarterback Hudson Card is in his second season at Purdue, and he’s had an OK campaign so far. He’s completing 63% of his passes — which is nothing to snuff at — but he’s truly an unspectacular QB.
He’s good enough to make an explosive play, but efficiency-wise, he’s nothing to write home about. Purdue’s passing down success rate is ranked 114th, and it’s hard to imagine Card thriving against a stingy defense.
The fact that the leading receiver is a tight end in Max Klare should tell you all you need to know about the kind of weapons this program has. Klare is a really good player and hauls in 15.3 yards per carry, but Card hardly looks elsewhere and no one can create high-end separation.
The strength lies within the Boilermakers’ run game, which, oddly enough, they don’t seem to rely on a whole lot. Devin Mockobee looks incredible, rushing for 7.7 yards per carry, and Reggie Love III notches 6.1 yards per carry.
Purdue will have to find a way to limit the ground game defensively. As I mentioned before, the Boilermakers have allowed 723 rushing yards in the past two games combined. Going against an efficient Nebraska running game, I envision even more damage to Purdue on the ground.
Not only that, but the Boilers are the worst team in the FBS at letting up explosive plays.
Defensively, this program has had a hard time causing turnovers. Purdue has yet to notch an interception or force a fumble, though one positive to take is that Kydran Jenkins is an absolute dog with 3.5 sacks and sophomore Will Heldt is making a name for himself.
I have my reservations about the rest of the defensive corps, though.
Nebraska vs Purdue
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Nebraska and Purdue match up statistically:
Nebraska Offense vs. Purdue Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 58 | 75 | |
| Line Yards | 58 | 109 | |
| Pass Success | 20 | 30 | |
| Havoc | 51 | 116 | |
| Finishing Drives | 94 | 92 |  |
| Quality Drives | 41 | 98 | |
Purdue Offense vs. Nebraska Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 68 | 83 | |
| Line Yards | 15 | 86 | |
| Pass Success | 102 | 64 | |
| Havoc | 94 | 54 | |
| Finishing Drives | 8 | 30 | |
| Quality Drives | 122 | 20 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 14 | 107 |
| PFF Coverage | 47 | 93 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 124 | 65 |
| Middle 8 | 20 | 134 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.7 (96) | 27.2 (64) |
| Rush Rate | 52% (66) | 53% (69) |
Nebraska vs Purdue Pick & Prediction
In nearly every facet of the game, Nebraska holds the advantage.
Even if the Huskers decide to give Raiola a break and lean more toward the run game, I don’t see that being a problem. Dowdell is a legitimate rusher and the Johnson's can cause damage when given the opportunity.
However, with Raiola being the efficient passer he is and with his premium connection with Neyor, I can see a few explosive plays here and there.
Purdue struggles mightily with teams better than it. With that in mind, it gives me the perfect incentive to back the Huskers big.
If Notre Dame can win 66-7 in West Lafayette, who says Nebraska can’t win by a wide margin, either?
Pick: Nebraska -10.5
How to Watch Nebraska vs Purdue Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, IN |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 28 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Peacock |
Nebraska vs Purdue Betting Trends
- 63% of the bets and 89% of the money is targeted for Nebraska to cover
- 75% of the bets and 34% of the money is aimed for the over.
- Nebraska moneyline has 95% of the bets and 94% of the money.
