Nevada vs Hawaii Prediction, Pick, Odds for Saturday, October 26

The Nevada Wolfpack (3-5, 0-2 MWC) will make the trip to the island to square off against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (2-5, 0-2) in a Week 9 matchup between two Mountain West teams looking for their first conference win of the season.

Nevada enters this one following a 1-score loss at Fresno State, while the Rainbow Warriors enter this one having dropped 3 straight games.

Both teams need this one to get their 1st conference win, but it feels like Hawaii may be a little more desperate at home after dropping 3 in a row.

The Rainbow Warriors enter as -2 favorites with the over/under set at 44.5. Can Hawaii defend the island, or will the Wolf Pack come in and take their first conference win of the year?

Let's take a look at my Nevada vs. Hawaii predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 26.

Nevada vs Hawaii Prediction

• Nevada vs Hawaii Pick: Under 44.5

My Nevada-Hawaii best bet is on both teams to stay under the total, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

Saturday, Oct. 26

11:59 p.m. ET

Spectrum PPV

Nevada Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+2 -110	44.5 -110 / -110	+105

Hawaii Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
2 -110	44.5 -110 / -110	-125

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

• Nevada vs Hawaii Point Spread: Nevada +2 (-110) · Hawaii -2 (-110)
• Nevada vs Hawaii Total: Over/Under 44.5
• Nevada vs Hawaii Moneyline: Nevada +105 · Hawaii -125

Nevada vs Hawaii Preview

Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Preview: Down to the Wire

Jeff Choate leads the Wolf Pack in his first season in Reno after coming over from Texas, where he spent his last three seasons as the co-defensive coordinator. Choate is looking to make a name for himself as a head coach at the Division I level after losing his last game as a head coach in the FCS semifinal game in 2019 with the Montana State Bobcats. 

Dual-threat quarterback Brendon Lewis leads the Wolf Pack attack, adding another element to the run game for other defenses to prepare for. The Wolf Pack rank 38th in Rush Rate, and they do it fairly efficiently, ranking 74th in Rush Success Rate.

They are the classic wear-you-out team with the ground game, then take their shots in the passing game, where they rank 27th in Passing Explosiveness. This attack has been good for 26.5 points per game this season.

Nevada is driven by its offensive line and run game, so it will need to get some push in this one. The Wolf Pack have lost every game this season when they were held to under 100 yards rushing, so that's where they need to be to hang around.

Defensively, Nevada has allowed 26.8 points per game, allowing just 0.3 more points than it's been scoring this year. The defense seems to play in sync with the offense in terms of keeping every game close.

The problem is its inconsistency week to week; you never really know what you're going to get.

The defense is the strength of this team, but not by much. The Wolf Pack rank 98th in Success Rate allowed and 92nd in Explosiveness allowed.

Despite the struggles stopping drives, this defense has been very opportunistic, ranking 47th in Havoc while generating a +2 turnover margin on the season. They'll need to force a few on the island this week if they want to win this one.

Hawaii Warriors Betting Preview: Defense the Key Strength

Head coach Timmy Chang is in his third season at the helm of his alma mater, where he has his team at 2-5 on the season. After a 3-10 start in 2022 and a 5-8 season a year ago, the hope was that Hawaii would continue to improve.

The opportunity is still there to win more than five games, but this is a must-win game for Chang to achieve that.

Brayden Schager is in his third season under center in Chang’s pass-heavy attack, where they rank third nationally in Pass Rate.

There's no hiding what Hawaii wants to do offensively. The problem with the offense is that opposing defenses know what to expect, and they can slow this offense down fairly easily.

Hawaii ranks 105th in Success Rate and 127th in Explosiveness. It averages just under 20 points per game, and that makes sense given the anemic offense to date.

The key for this offense will be to generate a few scoring drives and not turn the ball over to the opportunistic defense it's facing this week. 

Hawaii has been its defense. holding teams to 23.6 points per game. This defense has been good against the run and excellent against the pass, ranking 67th and 34th in Rush Success allowed and Pass Success allowed, respectively.

The place to attack this defense is the run game, but it has proven to hold its own against teams that try to do that. Boise State and Heisman hopeful Ashton Jeanty are the only group to generate quite a bit of success on the ground against this defense.

I would expect Hawaii’s defense — which I consider the strongest unit in this football game — to slow the Wolf Pack offense considerably.

Nevada vs Hawaii Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Nevada and Hawaii match up statistically:

Nevada Offense vs. Hawaii Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	28	40
Line Yards	56	76
Pass Success	80	107
Havoc	45	63
Finishing Drives	30	98
Quality Drives	27	92

Hawaii Offense vs. Nevada Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	77	97
Line Yards	35	60
Pass Success	52	73
Havoc	101	68
Finishing Drives	76	96
Quality Drives	115	117

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	130	61
PFF Coverage	27	43
Special Teams SP+	122	117
Middle 8	72	107
Seconds per Play	30.6 (128)	27.5 (72)
Rush Rate	61% (23)	39% (134)

Nevada vs Hawaii Pick & Prediction

Given that neither offense has been very prolific to date, I think this will be a slugfest on the island.

It's also a big-time change for Nevada with what's expected to be a windy day in Honolulu. That could lead to some additional struggles outside of what these teams usually deal with.

Hawaii’s defense will be suffocating in this one, so I ecpect it squeak out with a win here, but my play will be on the under 44.5.

Pick: Under 44.5

The Nevada vs. Hawaii game will take place on Saturday in Honolulu at 11:59 p.m. ET on Spectrum PPV.

• 40% of bets and 60% of the money are on Hawaii to cover the spread
• 71% of bets and 99% of the money on the moneyline are on Hawaii to win outright
• 95% of bets and 49% of the money are on the over

Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.

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