The Nevada Wolf Pack will head north to take on the Minnesota Golden Gophers this Saturday on Big Ten Network. The game will take place in Huntington Bank Stadium at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Minnesota is currently favored by 17.5 points, as this line has been moving in their favor throughout the week. This game has an over/under of 43.5 points (-108/-112) set right now, as it projects to be a lower-scoring affair.
Let’s take a look at my preview and best bet for the Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers on Saturday, September 14th.
Nevada vs Minnesota Prediction
My Nevada vs Minnesota best bet is on the Golden Gophers to cover the 17.5-point spread at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Nevada vs Minnesota Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Nevada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +575 |
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -850 |
- Nevada vs Minnesota Point Spread: Nevada +17 (-110) · Minnesota -17 (-110)
- Nevada vs Minnesota Total: Over/Under 44.5
- Nevada vs Minnesota Moneyline: Nevada +575 · Minnesota -850
Nevada Football vs Minnesota Football Preview
Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Preview: Stopping The Pass Is Key
Nevada went 2-10 last season, winning just one conference game. So, the Pack hired Jeff Choate, the former co-DC at Texas, as their new head coach.
Nevada was ranked 132nd in SP+ at the end of last season among just 133 teams. They had the 128th-ranked offense and 127th-ranked defense, as both sides of the ball needed to be revamped.
Nevada has been competitive at least through three games this season. It narrowly lost to SMU and Georgia Southern but defeated Troy by two.
The SMU game looks somewhat flukey, as SMU had a 65th-percentile Success Rate and 59th-percentile EPA per Play on offense compared to just the 19th and 17th percentile, respectively, for Nevada.
SP+’s postgame win expectancy had this as a 19-point expected win for SMU, so the game was closer than it should have been.
However, Nevada came out firing against Troy, putting up a 93rd-percentile offensive Success Rate and 87th-percentile EPA per Play. The Pack followed this by averaging 6.49 yards per play and a 79th-percentile success rate against Georgia Southern in a game that SP+ would have expected to be a 10-point win.
The team was obviously much improved to begin the year. Following these respectable performances, they now rank 117th in SP+ and climbing. The Wolf Pack rank 82nd in EPA per Play on offense and 67th in Success Rate. They are 104th in EPA per Play allowed and 82nd in Success Rate allowed.
The main issue for the Nevada defense has been its inability to stop the pass, as they rank 115th in EPA per Dropback allowed, compared to 61st in EPA per Rush allowed.
Minnesota Golden Gophers Betting Preview: Can Defense Stay Consistently Solid?
Minnesota kicked off the season with a close loss to North Carolina in a game it likely should have won. SP+ had this as an 8.8-point win, but the Gophers fell by two on a missed field goal to end the game.
Minnesota dismantled Rhode Island last weekend, as expected from a Big Ten team. It had a 94th-percentile offensive Success Rate while holding Rhode Island to a second-percentile offensive success rate en route to a 48-0 victory.
This team returned eight starters from last year's team on each side of the ball. Max Brosmer joins the team from New Hampshire, where he put up gaudy numbers as a finalist for the Walter Payton Award. Brosmer struggled against UNC before averaging 0.50 EPA per Play against Rhode Island.
This Minnesota defense projects to be a good unit this year. The Gophers ranked 31st in SP+ last season on this side of the ball, and with eight starters returning, they should be strong once again. This was the case in their one true test so far, as North Carolina had a 20th-percentile Success Rate and ninth-percentile EPA per Play. The Tar Heels averaged a third-percentile EPA per Dropback at -0.64, but they were starting a new quarterback who was then injured during this game.
<span >How to Make College Football Picks For My Nevada vs Minnesota Prediction</span>
I want to believe in this Nevada renaissance and may end up backing the Pack as the season progresses, but I also like where this Minnesota team is headed.
The Gophers will have an advantage in the trenches, and Nevada’s defense still has much to be desired, especially in the passing game.
I’ll be riding with Brosmer and the Golden Gophers in this matchup. I believe they will be able to put points on the board, and I don’t have faith in Nevada's ability to keep up against SP+’s 14th-ranked defense
Nevada shows signs of hope in the long term, but at 17.5, I like taking Minnesota to get the job done at home by multiple scores.
Pick: Minnesota -17.5 (-110, DraftKings) | Play to -19.5 (-110)
How to Watch Nevada vs Minnesota Live: Streaming, Channel, Time
| Location: | Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 14 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Big Ten Network |
Minnesota vs Nevada Betting Trends
- Minnesota is 1-1 in their last 5 games.
- Minnesota is 1-0 in their last 5 games against the spread.
- The total has gone OVER in 1 of Minnesota's last 2 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 1 of Minnesota's 2 last games at home.
- Nevada is 1-2 in its last 5 games.
- Nevada is 2-1 in its last 5 games against the spread
- Nevada is 1-0 in its past 5 road games against the spread
- The total has gone OVER in 1 of Nevada's last 3 games
- The total has gone OVER in 0 of Nevada's 2 last games at home
