New Mexico (5-6, 3-3 MWC) heads to the Island this week to take on Hawaii (4-7, 2-4 MWC) in the final game of the 2024 college football regular season.
This game kicks off on Saturday at 11:00 PM ET and can be seen live on Spectrum Sports.
New Mexico is listed as a 3-point favorite on the spread, with an over/under set at 61.5.
There is no greater contrast in teams achieving expectations this season in the Mountain West conference than New Mexico and Hawaii.
The Lobos have been competitive week in and week out while playing a thrilling brand of football and providing must-see television. Hawaii has struggled to develop its offensive system and has frustrated fans and bettors almost weekly.
Here are my New Mexico vs Hawaii predictions and college football picks.
New Mexico vs Hawaii Prediction
- New Mexico vs Hawaii Pick: New Mexico ATS
My New Mexico vs Hawaii best bet is on the Lobos Against the Spread. Find the best line on our live NCAAF odds page.
New Mexico vs Hawaii Odds
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 61.5 -110o / -110u | -160 |
| Hawaii Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 61.5 -110o / -110u | +135 |
- New Mexico vs Hawaii Point Spread: New Mexico -3 (-110) · Hawaii +3 (-110)
- New Mexico vs Hawaii Total: Over/Under 61.5
- New Mexico vs Hawaii Moneyline: New Mexico -160 · Hawaii +135
New Mexico vs Hawaii Preview
New Mexico Lobos Betting Preview: Stunning Turnaround Season
New Mexico has had the most impressive turnaround in the conference this season.
The Lobos were picked last in the MWC and were projected to win just one or two games. After a bye last week following a thrilling home win as significant underdogs against Washington State two weeks ago, the Lobos have a chance to complete their improbable bowl run and get to 6-6.
The New Mexico offense continues to wow viewers and opponents. The unit scored 38 points and racked up 534 yards against a Cougar defense that had been playing pretty well.
While the defense leaves a lot to be desired, there has been some quantifiable improvement in recent weeks. The Lobos have held two of their last four opponents under 400 yards and 20 points.
Hawaii Warriors Betting Preview: Uncertain Present and Future
Hawaii has been one of the more disappointing teams in the country, in my opinion.
The “Run and Shoot” offense never got going this season. The team is averaging just 346 yards and 21 points per game, and both the run game and pass game have significantly underwhelmed.
Quarterback Brayden Schager has completed just 58% of his passes with a 19:13 touchdown to interception ratio and has been sacked an incredible 43 times this season.
The ground game has been very ineffective, and the defense — which has played tough at times this season — has started to wear down.
Hawaii will not bowl this season, and I have serious questions about where this program is headed in the future.
New Mexico vs Hawaii
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how New Mexico and Hawaii match up statistically:
New Mexico Offense vs. Hawaii Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 12 | 46 | |
| Line Yards | 2 | 79 | |
| Pass Success | 53 | 84 | |
| Havoc | 3 | 64 | |
| Finishing Drives | 87 | 99 | |
| Quality Drives | 41 | 83 | |
Hawaii Offense vs. New Mexico Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 47 | 131 | |
| Line Yards | 26 | 113 | |
| Pass Success | 65 | 131 | |
| Havoc | 113 | 124 | |
| Finishing Drives | 89 | 128 | |
| Quality Drives | 108 | 131 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 119 | 60 |
| PFF Coverage | 121 | 17 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 128 | 121 |
| Middle 8 | 87 | 95 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.9 (25) | 27.1 (65) |
| Rush Rate | 53% (69) | 43% (132) |
New Mexico vs Hawaii Pick & Prediction
The stakes are high, and there is a lot on the line for this rare road favorite, but I am laying it with New Mexico.
Hawaii has hung its hat on defense this season, and for the first half of the year, the defense played lights-out football. The Rainbow Warriors were tough against the run and serviceable against the pass while creating pressure.
Unfortunately, Hawaii has been severely outgained in four of the past six games. The past two performances have been very alarming.
Against UNLV and Utah State, the Bows allowed 1045 yards and 84 points and consistently could not get off the field on defense. The metrics look suitable for the entirety of the season, but I have serious concerns about the play of the stop unit in this game.
New Mexico has run the ball for over 300 yards in its past three games and is averaging an eye-popping 9.5 yards per attempt during that stretch. This team has wholly shredded opposing fronts with multiple run schemes and several ball carriers who hit the hole hard.
Electric quarterback Devon Dampier has over 1000 yards rushing with 16 touchdowns on the ground, along with 2500 passing yards and 12 scoring throws. Running Back Eli Sanders is closing in on 1000 yards for the season, averaging 7.3 yards per carry. Containing this exquisite rushing attack is going to be a real challenge.
Offensively, Hawaii has been a mess for weeks and has only scored more than 24 points against an FBS opponent once this year. The unit ranks 105th nationally in Success Rate and 127th in Explosiveness. Far too frequently, we have seen missed throws, dropped passes, and untimely penalties set this offense back.
The offensive line play has been exceedingly weak. The Bows have surrendered 43 sacks and 75 tackles for loss, and the run game has been nonexistent against FBS opponents all year. Hawaii has been held under 100 yards as a team six times this year and has averaged just 81 yards and 2.4 yards per attempt in the last three weeks. The New Mexico run defense unit has been gashed all season, but the past five weeks have drastically improved their numbers.
Hawaii quarterback Schager has been battling lower leg injuries and was knocked out against Utah State. There is still no word on whether he will suit up on Saturday. Still, backup quarterbacks Micah Alejado and John-Keawe Sagapoluteie have received substantial practice reps if Schager is unavailable.
Schager being out would be the icing on the cake, but whether he plays or not, this matchup is favorable for New Mexico.
This team is motivated and has continued to impress fans and Lobo bettors all season. I am riding with this group again to get this win and unlock bowl eligibility. Bronco Mendenhall has done a fabulous job with his inherited talent and will surely have this group ready to go again this week.
Pick:New Mexico ATS
New Mexico vs Hawaii Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | Clarence T.C. Chings Athletics Complex |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 30 |
| Kickoff Time: | 11 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Spectrum PPV |
New Mexico vs Hawaii will be played at Clarence T.C. Chings Athletics Complex on Saturday, Nov. 30 at 11 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on Spectrum.
New Mexico vs Hawaii Betting Trends
New Mexico vs Hawaii Weather
