The New Mexico Lobos (0-4) travels to Las Cruces, NM, to take on the New Mexico State Aggies (1-3) on Saturday, September 28th. The game can be seen live on ESPN + and kicks off at 8:00 PM ET.
New Mexico is favored in the contest by 9 points with an over-under of 54.5.
Read on for our New Mexico vs New Mexico State Predictions & NCAAF Picks For College Football Week 5.
New Mexico vs New Mexico State Predictions & Picks
- New Mexico vs New Mexico State Pick: New Mexico -9 (-110)
My New Mexico State vs New Mexico best bet is on the Lobos to cover, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
New Mexico vs New Mexico State Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9 -110 | 54 -110o / -110u | -340 |
| New Mexico State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9 -110 | 54 -110o / -110u | +270 |
- New Mexico vs New Mexico State Point Spread: New Mexico -9 (-110) · New Mexico State +9 (-110)
- New Mexico vs New Mexico State Total: Over/Under 54
- New Mexico vs New Mexico State Moneyline: New Mexico -340 · New Mexico State +270
New Mexico Football vs New Mexico State Football Preview
New Mexico Lobos Betting Preview: Everything Coming Together
New Mexico comes into this one off a tough home loss against Fresno State by the score of 38-21.
The Lobos outgained Fresno State by 140 yards in the contest and moved the ball well all game. Three turnovers hurt the New Mexico effort and led to 14 Bulldog points.
This was the first time New Mexico did not cover this season, as the Lobos have been much better than expected.
Quarterback Devon Dampier has been electric with his arm and legs this year, and the offense is much farther along than projected.
The defense had surrendered quite a bit of yards and points on the season, but the Lobos have played considerably stronger competition than they will face this week.
New Mexico State Aggies Betting Preview: Struggling to Find Their Way
New Mexico State comes in fresh off a conference road loss at the hands of Sam Houston State by the score of 31-11.
The Aggies put a drive together to get on the scoreboard first but then were completely shut down by the Bearkat defense.
In the three games NMSU has played against FBS competition, the Aggies have been outgained on average by 270 yards per game.
New Mexico State averages 2.73 yards per carry on the ground and 3.66 yards per pass in these outings.
The defense has been gashed, as the Aggies have surrendered 779 yards on the ground in the last three weeks.
The Aggies are much different than the team we were accustomed to seeing, with Jerry Kill at the helm and Group of 5 hero-of-the-week Diego Pavia playing quarterback.
New Mexico vs New Mexico State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how New Mexico and New Mexico State match up statistically:
New Mexico Offense vs. New Mexico State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 96 | 85 | |
| Line Yards | 35 | 66 | |
| Pass Success | 74 | 103 | |
| Havoc | 32 | 109 | |
| Finishing Drives | 98 | 47 | |
| Quality Drives | 101 | 111 | |
New Mexico State Offense vs. New Mexico Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 82 | 132 | |
| Line Yards | 96 | 114 | |
| Pass Success | 133 | 131 |  |
| Havoc | 124 | 122 | |
| Finishing Drives | 107 | 126 | |
| Quality Drives | 129 | 133 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 127 | 5 |
| PFF Coverage | 101 | 37 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 130 | 22 |
| Middle 8 | 89 | 108 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.5 (33) | 28.2 (80) |
| Rush Rate | 42% (112) | 60% (31) |
How To Make College Football Picks For My New Mexico vs New Mexico State Prediction
New Mexico has played significantly tougher competition up to this point in the season, and its offense went up and down the field against Arizona, Auburn and Fresno State.
UNM is averaging 468 offensive yards per game against FBS competition this season at 5.6 yards per carry, while New Mexico State ranks 96th in EPA per Rush.
New Mexico has plenty of offensive weapons, highlighted by wide receiver Luke Wysong, who has 30 catches for 407 yards on the season.
Three other Lobos have at least 10 catches in the season, and with New Mexico State struggling to allow pass explosives, I fully expect New Mexico to find chunk plays in the passing game.
New Mexico should have a clean pocket for Dampier to make decisions and find open receivers downfield as NMSU struggles to create pressure. Ranked just 124th in defensive Havoc rate, New Mexico State has just four sacks and 10 total tackles for loss in the last three weeks.
While New Mexico's defense has been susceptible to giving up yards and points against superior competition, I am not sure that New Mexico State has the offensive punch to exploit the defense here. NMSU has cycled through three quarterbacks this season, completing 39.8% of its passes combined while averaging 3.4 yards per pass.
The rushing game has two explosive rushing plays all season. The Aggies are still searching for playmakers on the outside, and at this point in the season, their leading receiver has just 54 yards on four pass catches.
New Mexico and New Mexico State have faced a common opponent this season in Fresno State. UNM lost by 17 and outgained Fresno State by 140 yards. New Mexico State lost by 48 and was outgained by 387 yards.
New Mexico has competed well each week, creating problems for opposing teams. New Mexico State has struggled on both sides of the ball in a pair of back-to-back blowout losses.
I am not confident that the Aggies' defense will get stops or contain the Lobos' offensive attack. I am equally not as confident that New Mexico State has anything offensive to hang its hat on.
I trust New Mexico here to put up a big offensive number and win this game handily.
Pick: New Mexico -9 (-110)
How to Watch New Mexico State vs New Mexico Live: Streaming, Channel, Time
| Location: | Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 28 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN+ |
New Mexico State vs New Mexico Betting Trends
- 65% of the bets and 87% of the money is toward the Lobos covering.
- 68% of tickets and 75% of the money is aimed for the Under.
- 88% of bettors are picking New Mexico moneyline
