It's another edition of Friday Night Lights in the Mountain West Conference as the New Mexico Lobos (3-6) travel to San Diego, California, to take on the San Diego State Aztecs (3-5).
The Aztecs were blitzed last week by the Boise State Broncos, and the Lobos lost a back-and-forth affair at home against Wyoming.
Both teams are sitting on three victories, while the Lobos must win out to earn Bowl eligibility. The Aztecs have a slightly bigger cushion, as they can afford to lose one more game before each game becomes a must-win.
Oddsmakers believe we are in for a close contest, as the Lobos are 3-point road underdogs. The total is 66.5, which fits the recurring theme of defense being optional between these clubs.
Read no for our New Mexico vs San Diego State predictions and college football picks.
New Mexico vs San Diego State Prediction
My New Mexico vs San Diego State best bet is on the Lobos to cover as short road underdogs, with the best line available at bet365 Sportsbook.
New Mexico vs San Diego State Odds
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 66 -110 / -110 | +120 |
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 66 -110 / -110 | -140 |
- New Mexico vs San Diego State Point Spread: New Mexico +2.5 (-110) · San Diego State -2.5 (-110)
- New Mexico vs San Diego State Total: Over/Under 66
- New Mexico vs San Diego State Moneyline: New Mexico +120 · San Diego State -140
New Mexico vs San Diego State Preview
New Mexico Lobos Betting Preview: Can They Get Any Stops?
The Lobos might be 3-6 on the season, but not because of their offensive production. They lost another close matchup last week because their defense was gashed.
Offensively, the Lobos, led by quarterback Devon Dampier, have been excellent under head coach Bronco Mendenhall and draw a terrific matchup against the Aztecs' defense. Dampier has turned the ball over 12 times throughout the season (eight interceptions, four Fumbles Lost), which is not ideal, but he has been productive through the air and on the ground.
The Lobos rank sixth nationally in EPA per Rush and enter the matchup 39th in Rushing Success Rate. They also rank seventh in Line Yards, which means their offensive line consistently gets a solid push in the trench.
They also rank 18th in Havoc Allowed, meaning many of Dampier's turnovers have been self-inflicted. The offensive front should completely dominate a nonexistent Aztec defensive trench.
It's concerning that they are a below-average team in Finishing Drives, but the Aztecs are horrific in that department on the defensive side of the ball. There is no question that the Lobos should sustain multiple scoring opportunities throughout the game, and it will be up to their defense to make some stops along the way.
Keep an eye on the injury report, as top wide receiver Luke Wysong is questionable with a leg injury, and he's caught 40 passes for the Lobos thus far. Given the matchup, the high-octane Lobos offense loves to go fast, and we may see a 51% rush rate tick a notch.
Their defense gives us much cause for concern. The Lobos do not stop, and they do not create any Havoc.
The defensive unit ranks outside the top 100 in almost every metric, notably Pass Success and Rush Success Rate allowed. Not only that, but they are a horrific tackling team and rank 109th among stop units in Pro Football Focus's Coverage grades.
This is not to say the Aztecs' offense is constantly firing on all cylinders, but any opponent has had their way with their poor defense throughout the season. Remember that FCS Montana State ran for over 380 yards against the Lobos in Week 0.
I do not see a world where the Lobos get any stops throughout the game, but their offense has the upper hand. We should see plenty of scoring from Dampier and the offense throughout the contest.
San Diego State Aztecs Betting Preview: Going Nowhere Fast
The Aztecs had no chance against the Broncos last week, and it was not a surprise to see them get blown out. It wasn't the most excellent spot for the Broncos to come out sharp, but they didn't skip a beat, putting up 56 points throughout the contest.
QB Danny O'Neil has to be better against the Lobos, as he threw two interceptions and completed less than 50% of his passes against the Broncos. O'Neil did chip in three touchdowns through the air, so that is the lone positive we can take from the matchup.
It's an incredible matchup for the offense, as the Big Bets On Campus Podcast has famously declared the Aztec's slogan as "Going nowhere fast." The up-tempo offensive unit has struggled chiefly throughout the season, but now is the time for them to get right.
The Aztecs rank 131st nationally in Rush Success Rate but 69th in Line Yards. Despite their inability to run the ball consistently, this is a highly soft matchup for them.
A 111th rank in Pass Success Rate could be more encouraging, but the Lobos' defense has been quintessentially a turnstile all season long. Wid receiver Ja'Shaun Poke remains questionable, as he did not play against the Broncos last week.
Regardless, the pass-heavy approach should bode well for the offense, and it will be an excellent opportunity to establish their ground attack led by running back Marquez Cooper.
However, many question marks surround the Aztec's defense, and their performance against the Broncos should not be overlooked. They did turn the ball over twice, but I would not attribute the Broncos' elite offensive attack to why the defense was catching their breath most of the evening.
The Aztecs rank outside the top 100 in Rush Success Rate and Line Yards Allowed and have allowed their opponents to score at will inside their territory. The red zone defense is nonexistent, and they rank 103rd in PFF's Tackling grades.
It's a terrible matchup against a potent Lobos offense, so there will be few stops throughout the contest. Their offense can bounce back, and it's saying little when I say their defense is more trustworthy.
However, due to their questionable defense, I can't find a way to lay the points with the Aztecs at home.
New Mexico vs San Diego State
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how New Mexico and San Diego State match up statistically:
New Mexico Offense vs. San Diego State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 39 | 108 | |
| Line Yards | 7 | 124 | |
| Pass Success | 53 | 69 | |
| Havoc | 18 | 93 | |
| Finishing Drives | 80 | 105 | |
| Quality Drives | 47 | 84 | |
San Diego State Offense vs. New Mexico Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 131 | 130 |  |
| Line Yards | 69 | 107 | |
| Pass Success | 111 | 133 | |
| Havoc | 112 | 127 | |
| Finishing Drives | 117 | 129 | |
| Quality Drives | 121 | 133 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 104 | 103 |
| PFF Coverage | 109 | 61 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 132 | 116 |
| Middle 8 | 65 | 65 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.8 (25) | 24.4 (19) |
| Rush Rate | 51% (86) | 53% (88) |
New Mexico vs San Diego State Pick & Prediction
In a game that goes back and forth, I must take the Lobos as a short dog.
It is an excellent bounce-back opportunity for the Aztecs' offense, but given their struggles on the defensive side of the ball, there is no reason they should be laying points to anybody.
The total initially grabbed my attention, but O'Neil's inconsistencies explain why the game might sail under. The Lobos' offense should sustain multiple drives of success throughout the game, and it'll be critical for Dampier to protect the ball.
We will have a back-and-forth affair, so I lean with the underdog here.
Pick: New Mexico +2.5 (-110, bet365)
New Mexico vs San Diego State Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Friday, Nov. 8 |
| Kickoff Time: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FS1 |
New Mexico vs San Diego State will be played at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego, California, on Friday, Nov. 8 at 10:30 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on FS1.
