New Mexico State (1-2) hits the road for a second week in a row as they travel to Sam Houston State (2-1). The game kicks off at 7 p.m. ET and can be seen live on ESPN+. Sam Houston comes into this contest as a favorite of 16.5 points with a total on the game of 44.5.
New Mexico State vs Sam Houston Picks, Predictions
- Prediction: Sam Houston -15.5
My New Mexico State vs Sam Houston best bet is on the Bearkats to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
New Mexico State vs Sam Houston Odds, Spread, Lines
| N. Mexico St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+15.5 -110 | 44.5 -112o / -108u | +525 |
| Sam Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-15.5 -110 | 44.5 -112o / -108u | -750 |
- New Mexico State vs Sam Houston Point Spread: New Mexico State +15.5 (-110) · Sam Houston -15.5 (-110)
- New Mexico State vs Sam Houston Total: Over/Under 44.5
- New Mexico State vs Sam Houston Moneyline: New Mexico State +575 · Sam Houston -750
New Mexico State Football vs Sam Houston Football Preview
New Mexico State Aggies Betting Preview: Struggles on Both Sides of the Ball
New Mexico State was blanked in its last game, a 48-0 loss against Fresno State. The game was filled with explosive plays for the Bulldogs, who racked up 525 total yards.
New Mexico State has shown major struggles on defense, as the competition has stiffened and the offense has not been able to sustain drives. Replacing Diego Pavia at quarterback has been difficult, and the Aggies have played three quarterbacks this season, none of them performing overly well.
The Aggies have been severely outgained in every game this year and the defense is really struggling to find answers.
Sam Houston Bearkats Betting Preview: Weapons on Offense
Sam Houston State comes in after a really solid home win against Hawaii, 31-13. The Bearkats controlled the line of scrimmage in running for 257 yard, as Jay Ducker led the way with 148 yards on just 15 carries.
The Sam Houston offense — which was such a problem last year — has seemingly turned the corner this year. They are playing especially well at home, where they are averaging 415 yards and 32.5 points per game at Bowers Stadium. Qua’vez Humphreys and Ife Adeyi are legitimate weapons on the outside, while QB Hunter Watson has drastically improved the quarterback play.
The defense has also proven to be stout against the run. Success in limiting Explosiveness has helped the Bearkats get off to a good start in their second year in FBS after moving up last year.
New Mexico State vs Sam Houston
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how New Mexico State and Sam Houston match up statistically:
New Mexico State Offense vs. Sam Houston Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 76 | 129 | |
| Line Yards | 93 | 134 | |
| Pass Success | 133 | 35 | |
| Havoc | 110 | 68 | |
| Finishing Drives | 109 | 110 |  |
| Quality Drives | 123 | 82 | |
Sam Houston Offense vs. New Mexico State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 124 | 90 | |
| Line Yards | 75 | 75 | |
| Pass Success | 88 | 101 | |
| Havoc | 115 | 128 | |
| Finishing Drives | 59 | 68 | |
| Quality Drives | 88 | 121 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 8 | 31 |
| PFF Coverage | 77 | 4 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 16 | 124 |
| Middle 8 | 109 | 65 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.3 (105) | 29.1 (101) |
| Rush Rate | 63% (26) | 62% (35) |
How To Make College Football Picks For My New Mexico State vs Sam Houston Prediction
In this matchup I am taking a position on Sam Houston -16.5. I see several advantages in this game for the Bearkats, who are likely to set up well against a really weak Aggies team.
Sam Houston State offensively has been much more explosive this season, especially in the passing game. This is a major concern for New Mexico State, which comes in at 98th in pass explosiveness allowed. Both in standard downs and passing downs, Sam Houston State has significant statistical advantages in Success Rate.
New Mexico State is also only 124th in defensive Havoc. I am not confident New Mexico State can cover the Sam Houston receivers or put pressure on the quarterback to make it tough for them to find big plays down the field. When they are playing back, running lanes will open up for the Bearkat running backs.
For New Mexico State, this is one of the least explosive offenses in FBS football. The Aggies rank outside the top 120 in Standard Down Success Rate, Passing Down Success Rate, and rushing Explosiveness. New Mexico State is only averaging 227.7 yards per game and 3.43 yards per play.
The struggles in the pass game are staggering. Aggies quarterbacks are combining to hit just 36% of their passes for 93 yards per game on average. For the season, the Aggies have six total explosive plays and only three plays exceeding 20 yards. Sam Houston State ranks inside the top 25 defensively in standard down explosion and pass play explosion allowed.
New Mexico State is going to have to run the football to try to stay in this game. Both Hawaii and Rice could not run the ball against the Bearkat front seven. Those two teams combined for 103 yards on 39 attempts in the two games. This is another tall order for the Aggies offensive line that has already allowed 12 sacks and 21 tackles for loss this season.
There seems to be just too much to overcome here for New Mexico State. They allow too much havoc, and negative plays have stalled drives all year. They struggle to run the ball, and the quarterbacks have completed just 27 of 74 passes so far this season, with a 2-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The defensive numbers are rough as well.
I fully expect a focused and complete effort here for Sam Houston State in its conference opener.
Pick: Sam Houston -15.5
How to Watch New Mexico State vs Sam Houston Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Hunstville, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 21 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN+ |
New Mexico State vs Sam Houston Betting Trends
- New Mexico State has landed 67% of the tickets and 67% of the money against the spread.
