The Duke Blue Devils (4-0) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (3-1) face off once again, this time on the gridiron at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN2 on Saturday.
The first month of the season has generated some interesting results for these two teams.
The Blue Devils enter this matchup undefeated, while the Tar Heels aim to start ACC play on the right track after a turbulent non-conference schedule.
Duke is a -2.5 point favorite and the over/under is set at 56 points.
North Carolina vs Duke Prediction
- North Carolina vs Duke Pick: UNC ML +125
My North Carolina vs Duke best bet is on Tar Heels spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
North Carolina vs Duke Odds
| North Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 56 -110 / -110 | +120 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 56 -110 / -110 | -145 |
- North Carolina vs Duke Point Spread: North Carolina +2.5 (-110) · Duke -2.5 (-110)
- North Carolina vs Duke Total: Over/Under 56
- North Carolina vs Duke Moneyline: North Carolina +120 · Duke -145
North Carolina vs Duke Preview
North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview: 3-1 … Somehow
No team has taken a more circuitous route to 3-1 than North Carolina.
It benefited from two missed field goals in a 19-17 Week 1 road win over Minnesota, unimpressively beat Charlotte and NC Central and then gave up a 70-burger at home to James Madison.
Oh, by the way, the Tar Heels are now down to their third quarterback — Jacolby Criswell.
And despite such an uneven start, 3-1 UNC enters ACC play with a clean slate. Its defense remains concerning, but the offense did at least put up 50 points against JMU and it looks like Criswell could be the guy for the rest of the season.
Criswell threw for 475 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions last weekend, which would be hailed as a breakout performance if the Tar Heels' defense didn't stink it up.
Criswell can also lean on a good running game as Omarion Hampton is averaging 6.5 yards per carry and and has 555 rushing yards and six touchdowns on the season.
His efforts are the main reason why UNC is 24th in rushing success rate and 23rd in finishing drives.
Defensively, it's hard to trust the Tar Heels after what happened against JMU. Sure, two of those touchdowns were non-offensive scores, but that's still 56 points allowed, and there's no real reason to expect this defense to play great after subpar defensive results over the past few seasons.
UNC is 101st in passing success rate allowed and 53rd in rushing success rate allowed. Defensive lineman Jahvaree Ritzie has been the Tar Heels standout defender with five sacks.
Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview: Undefeated, But More to Prove
Duke has to be the most under-discussed 4-0 Power Four team in the country … and that's probably fair.
The Blue Devils' wins are as follows: A 26-3 win over Elon in Week 1, a 26-20 double overtime road win over Northwestern, a 26-21 home win over UConn and a 45-17 home victory over Middle Tennessee State.
While all of those wins count the same, it's a pretty unspectacular resume. The close win over Northwestern looks less impressive by the day, and Duke actually trailed UConn in the fourth quarter of that game.
The offensive advanced metrics show that the Blue Devils are playing a bit above their heads as they're 130th in rushing success rate, 125th in line yards and 105th in quality drives.
In spite of that, some individuals on Duke's offense have shined, namely Texas transfer QB Maalik Murphy (1,017 passing yards, 11 touchdowns and four interceptions), running back Star Thomas (314 rushing yards and two touchdowns) and wide receiver Jordan Moore (340 receiving yards and three touchdowns).
The offense is playing inconsistently, but the Blue Devils are playing great defense. New head coach Manny Diaz has Duke getting after the passer with 15 sacks already and, as a result, the Blue Devils are first in Havoc rate and ninth in passing success rate allowed.
It all adds up to just 15.3 points allowed per game, a great start for a program with a new coaching staff.
North Carolina vs Duke
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how North Carolina and Duke match up statistically:
North Carolina Offense vs. Duke Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 24 | 26 |  |
| Line Yards | 24 | 16 | |
| Pass Success | 71 | 11 | |
| Havoc | 91 | 1 | |
| Finishing Drives | 23 | 13 | |
| Quality Drives | 64 | 17 | |
Duke Offense vs. North Carolina Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 130 | 53 | |
| Line Yards | 125 | 88 | |
| Pass Success | 36 | 101 | |
| Havoc | 62 | 94 | |
| Finishing Drives | 93 | 105 | |
| Quality Drives | 105 | 85 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 29 | 105 |
| PFF Coverage | 93 | 6 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 46 | 24 |
| Middle 8 | 123 | 60 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.5 (19) | 24.5 (17) |
| Rush Rate | 56% (71) | 48% (98) |
North Carolina vs Duke Pick & Prediction
After North Carolina's defensive abomination last weekend, it's not easy to back the Tar Heels, but that's what I'm going to do.
This is more of a bet on Duke regressing. The Blue Devils' 4-0 start is built on an easy schedule, and they haven't exactly dominated their competition.
UNC will be — by far — the best offense Duke has faced, and the Tar Heels defense should improve after getting embarrassed in their last game.
With such a short spread, grab some value and take North Carolina to win in Durham.
Pick: North Carolina ML +125
How to Watch North Carolina vs Duke Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Durham, NC |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 28 |
| Kickoff Time: | 4 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
North Carolina vs Duke Betting Trends
- 50% of the bets and 69% of the money is on Duke to cover the spread against UNC.
- 53% of the bets are on the under while 42% of the money is on the same side of the total.
