It's time to take a look at the North Carolina vs. NC State odds and make a pick for Saturday's in-state college football rivalry.
North Carolina vs NC State Odds
| North Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 56 -110o / -110u | -140 |
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 56 -110o / -110u | +115 |
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This game may not have ramifications in the ACC title race, but whenever North Carolina and NC State square off, it's always a big deal to the people on Tobacco Road.
These two teams enter this rivalry matchup on different terms.
The Wolfpack have won four in a row and entered the College Football Playoff rankings for the first time on the season on Tuesday night.
As for the Tar Heels, after starting the season 6-0, Mack Brown's team has lost three of its last five, including a 31-20 defeat at Clemson last Saturday.
Let's discuss where the betting value lies in Raleigh.
North Carolina Tar Heels
At the midway point in the season, Drake Maye was in the Heisman race, and UNC was being tossed around as a dark horse contender to make the CFP.
Back-to-back losses at the hands of Virginia and Georgia Tech ended those conversations. Maye and the Tar Heel offense have not been the issue, as that unit continues to put up plenty of points on the scoreboard.
The problem, which has been the case for a while now for North Carolina, has been an inability to get opposing offenses off the field.
Carolina is soft up front against the run, which has led to teams breaking big plays on the ground and then using play action to air it down the field.
Given that NC State is somewhat limited in its passing attack, it will be critical on Saturday night for the Tar Heels to limit the yards it surrenders in the trenches.
NC State Wolfpack
It may not always be pretty, but year in and year out, Dave Doeren finds a way to win football games.
The tale of the season for the Wolfpack has been much different than its rival, UNC.
After a blowout loss at Duke in which the offense could only muster up three points, the Pack fell to 4-3, and many felt just making a bowl game would be a win at that point.
MJ Morris gave NC State a spark at the quarterback position, and the offense took a step forward.
Since then, Morris announced he would sit the rest of the season to preserve eligibility, but Brennan Armstrong has looked much improved since returning.
Defensively, the Pack are once again an elite group. This will be one of Maye and Co.'s biggest challenges, as Tony Gibson's unit doesn't have a weakness.
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North Carolina vs NC State
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how North Carolina and NC State match up statistically:
North Carolina Offense vs. NC State Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 8 | 26 | |
| Line Yards | 19 | 16 |  |
| Pass Success | 45 | 15 | |
| Havoc | 18 | 41 | |
| Finishing Drives | 34 | 50 | |
| Quality Drives | 5 | 22 | |
NC State Offense vs. North Carolina Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 78 | 85 | |
| Line Yards | 76 | 103 | |
| Pass Success | 95 | 58 | |
| Havoc | 84 | 43 | |
| Finishing Drives | 26 | 41 | |
| Quality Drives | 90 | 53 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 64 | 8 |
| PFF Coverage | 40 | 55 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 39 | 22 |
| Middle 8 | 14 | 40 |
| Seconds per Play | 22.9 (7) | 29.3 (112) |
| Rush Rate | 52.5% (90) | 55.8% (62) |
North Carolina vs NC State
Betting Pick & Prediction
Home underdogs often have value in rivalry matchups, and I think this is another case of that situation.
The Wolfpack should be able to muck this one up and hang tough behind the strength of its defense.
North Carolina still cannot stop the run, so expect to see a heavy dose of Armstrong using his legs in designed rushing attempts, dropping back, and throwing.
The Wolfpack can get their share of points as everyone does against Carolina, and I trust the defense to contain Maye and the dynamic Tar Heel offense.
I see this one being anybody's ball game late in the fourth quarter, so I will gladly back the Pack catching a field goal on their turf.
Pick: NC State +3
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