The North Dakota State Bison (13-2, 7-1 MVFC) and Montana State Bobcats (15-0, 8-0 Big Sky) square off in the highly anticipated FCS National Championship on Monday, Jan. 6. Kickoff from Frisco, Texas, is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
This will be a fascinating rematch of a second-round matchup from 2023, which saw the Bison go on the road and stun the Bobcats by a score of 35-34.
Montana State has used the outcome of that game as motivation all season long and now has an opportunity to exact revenge on the Bison. This game will be must-watch television on Monday night.
Montana State has been the best team in FCS football all season and comes in as a -3 favorite with the over/under set at 58.5.
Let's dive into my North Dakota State vs. Montana State predictions and college football picks for the 2025 FCS National Championship on Monday, Jan. 6.
North Dakota State vs Montana State Prediction, Best Bet
- North Dakota State vs. Montana State Pick: Montana State -3
My Montana State vs. North Dakota State best bet is on the Bobcats to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
North Dakota State vs Montana State Odds, Betting Line, Spread
| North Dakota State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -105 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | +158 |
| Montana State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -115 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | -192 |
- Spread: Montana State -4, North Dakota State +4
- Over/Under: 58.5 Total Points
- Moneyline: Montana State ML -192, North Dakota State ML +158
North Dakota State Bison vs Montana State Bobcats Preview for FCS Championship
North Dakota State Bison Betting Preview
NDSU has a guy at quarterback who can spin it. Cam Miller grades out as the second-best quarterback in FCS, per PFF.
Miller threw for 3,052 yards with a 31:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio while adding 510 rushing yards and 10 scores on the ground. His ability to extend plays and make defenders miss in the pocket has frustrated opposing defenses all season.
Miller is also extremely accurate with the deep pass and has connected with wide receiver Bryce Lance on downfield throws on numerous occasions this season.
The play of these two quarterbacks will go a long way in deciding who is going to be crowned your 2024 FCS national champion this year.
However, North Dakota State hasn't been as dominant on the offensive line as we've become accustomed to seeing with the Bison. While this is still a solid offensive line, things aren't quite the same in Fargo.
The offensive line has allowed 69 tackles for loss and 19 sacks this season, along with countless other scenarios where Miller has made magic behind the line of scrimmage to avoid catastrophe.
This unit will be tested by a Bobs front seven that features All-American Brody Grebe, who anchors a unit that has registered 36 sacks and 85 tackles for loss on the season.
NDSU has run the ball on 63% of its offensive snaps with CharMar Brown and Barika Kpeenu sharing the load. These two backs have combined to run for 1,825 yards and 21 touchdowns this season, as the Bison have averaged 192.7 yards per game on the ground as a team.
Montana State Bobcats Betting Preview
We're due to see fireworks in this FCS Championship game that pits the top two quarterbacks in the subdivision against each other.
Tommy Mellott just won the Walter Payton Award, which is given annually to the top player in FCS.
The senior signal-caller threw for 2,588 yards while completing 69% of his passes this season with a 29:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Montana State has historically run its quarterbacks often within the scope of its offensive system, but the Bobcats made a concerted effort to limit that part of the attack this year.
Despite less action in the run game, Mellott ranked third on the team with 915 rushing yards and 14 rushing scores while averaging 8.4 yards per carry.
Mellott is an excellent decision-maker who's versatile in the pocket. He has also improved his deep-ball accuracy tremendously throughout the course of this season.
Montana State has run the ball on 69% of offensive snaps this season and has a true three-headed monster in the backfield with running backs Scottre Humphrey and Adam Jones playing alongside Mellott.
As a unit, the Bobs have run for 301 yards per game and averaged 6.6 yards per carry while rushing for 51 touchdowns.
In years past, Montana State would typically run through a weak nonconference schedule before controlling most foes in Big Sky play and making a deep playoff run.
When it was time to face off against the Missouri Valley powers — South Dakota State and North Dakota State — Montana State would not have the interior offensive or defensive line play to compete, often resulting in lopsided losses.
However, this Bobcats offensive line is built differently and includes several players who should get a look at the next level. In fact, this unit has been the best in FCS all season long.
On the other side of the ball, Montana State's defensive line and its ability to generate Havoc will play a major role.
With Miller and Lance forming a stellar downfield connection, the Bobcats will have to lock in on the back end. Well, Montana State has a solid coverage unit that's allowing a completion percentage of just 58% and 191 yards per game through the air.
A lot of that is due to first-half blowouts and the second-team platoon getting reps in the better part of eight games.
I'd expect the Bobs to lock in on Lance and force the ball to other pass-catchers, none of whom have more than 30 catches on the season.
North Dakota State vs Montana State Picks, Best Bets
These two FCS powers are built of a similar nature offensively. The desire for both will be to establish the run game early and stress the opposing defenses.
Through 15 games, the offensive line has surrendered just 11 sacks and 43 tackles for loss while also severely limiting the pressure that Mellott has faced.
Montana State was defeated at home in stunning fashion in the second round of the 2023 FCS Playoffs against these same Bison. The Bobs certainly let that game slip away, as they failed to convert two first-quarter field goals and failed to put the game away after going up by a touchdown late in the fourth quarter.
The game went to overtime, where NDSU scored first. Montana State answered, but the extra point was blocked to end the game — and the season — for Montana State.
Bobcats head coach Brent Vigen has used that game as motivation for his team all season, and I would expect this team to be salivating from the mouth to have a chance to avenge that loss.
This is going to be a wildly entertaining FCS Championship with back-and-forth action and plenty of momentum swings. I have felt that Montana State has been the best team in FCS all season, and while this will be no easy task, I'm laying the points and backing the Bobs here.
Montana State has been the best team in FCS when it comes to red-zone opportunities, while NDSU ranks sixth overall.
The Bobcats have converted 61-of-63 red-zone chances into points with 52 touchdowns on the season. This offensive unit finishes drives well, and I trust it to come through when it needs a conversion on 3rd-and-inches or 4th-and goal scenarios.
Montana State has also been better on third down on both sides of the ball. In a game between two highly efficient and well-coached football teams, one or two missed opportunities could be the difference here.
The Bobcats convert third downs at a 55.4% clip, and their defense has allowed conversions on just 32% of attempts.
NDSU has converted third downs 53.6% of the time, and its defense is yielding just a third-down conversion rate of just 42.1%. While it's a small margin of difference, it's still one that could change the game here.
The big difference is Montana State's development in the trenches on both sides of the ball. While the Bobcats have been overwhelmed and overmatched in recent postseason matchups, that won't be the case this year. Montana State should be the more physical team with the better run game and better run defense.
They say football is a game of inches and that small marginal advantages can add up to be the difference. Montana State is just a little bit better in several key areas, and the Bobs have slightly better personnel in the trenches and at quarterback.
I'll take Montana State to get its revenge in what should shape up to be a wonderful conclusion to the FCS season.
Pick: Montana State -3
North Dakota State vs Montana State TV Channel, Streaming, How to Watch, Start Time
| Location: | Toyota Stadium, Frisco, TX |
| Date: | Monday, Jan. 6 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
North Dakota State takes on Montana State in the FCS National Championship in Frisco, Texas, on Monday, Jan. 6. The game kicks off at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
North Dakota State vs Montana State Betting Trends to Know
North Dakota State vs Montana State Weather Forecast
