The First Responder Bowl is set to take place on Friday afternoon between the North Texas Mean Green (6-6, 3-5 AAC) and Texas State Bobcats (7-5, 5-3 Sun Belt). Kickoff is set for 4 p.m. ET on ESPN.
In normal circumstances, this matchup would be points galore. But, as listed below, a lot of key players are unavailable for various reasons on both sides.
Texas State enters as a -13.5 favorite with the over/under sitting at 62.5.
Let's dive into my North Texas vs. Texas State predictions and college football picks for the First Responder Bowl on Friday, Jan. 3.
North Texas Mean Green vs Texas State Bobcats Prediction, Picks
- North Texas vs. Texas State Pick: Under 61.5
My Texas State vs. North Texas best bet is on both teams to stay under the total, with the best line currently available at Caesars, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
North Texas vs Texas State Odds, Spread, Lines
| North Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -110 | 65.5 -110 / -110 | +425 |
| Texas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -110 | 65.5 -110 / -110 | -600 |
- North Texas vs Texas State Spread: Texas State -14, North Texas +14
- North Texas vs Texas State Over/Under: 65.5
- North Texas vs Texas State Moneyline: Texas State ML -600, North Texas ML +425
North Texas vs Texas State First Responder Bowl Betting Preview
North Texas Mean Green Betting Preview: UNT Will Miss Morris
North Texas is a team that will be missing plenty of pieces for its bowl game on Friday.
North Texas Transfer Portal
- Starting QB Chandler Morris (committed to Virginia)
- Starting WR DT Sheffield (committed to Rutgers)
- Starting TE Oscar Hammond (committed to Oregon State)
- Starting C Tyler Mercer (committed to Kansas)
- LG Leke Asenuga (585 snaps; been injured)
- WR Nick Rempert (257 snaps)
- RT MaKyi Lee (246 snaps)
- S Jayven Anderson (181 snaps)
- CB Kerry Williams (113 snaps)
- WR Jeremiah Aaron (97 snaps)
- RB Ikaika Ragsdale (58 snaps; injured Week 2)
- RB Shane Porter (listed on bowl depth chart)
Thanks again to Stuckey for providing terrific daily updates in his opt-out/transfer portal article.
Without Morris, the Mean Green offense is essentially nonexistent. The Mean Green will turn to true freshman Drew Mestemaker, but as you can see, Morris is not the only offensive skill player who won't be available.
Much like the Bobcats, I really think the offense is going to struggle. I have very little confidence in Mestemaker, especially against an underrated Texas State defense.
North Texas Injuries
Jett Duncan and Leke Asenuga suffered late-season injuries on the interior offensive line. Still, Duncan is back on the depth chart as the starting C. UNT also lost starting OT Larry Moore midway through the season.
Three true freshmen are set to start for the Mean Green.
Texas State Bobcats Betting Preview: Bobs Could Struggle
Much like North Texas, there's a lot of significant news for the Bobs that needs to be mentioned. There are many players in the portal and a couple of opt-outs.
Texas State Transfer Portal
- Starting RB Ismail Mahdi (committed to Arizona)
- Starting RT Alex Harkey (committed to Oregon)
- Starting CB Josh Eaton (committed to Michigan State)
- Starting DT Terry Webb (375 snaps)
- Starting DT Tavian Coleman (355 snaps)
- DT Dominique Ratcliff (318 snaps)
- DE Ben Bell (opted out earlier in the season)
Texas State Potential Opt-Out
- LG Nash Jones
Starting tight end Konner Fox didn’t play in the finale, and defensive end Steven Parker (367 snaps) missed the final three games.
QB Jordan McCloud will also play, but there's a good chance he's not in the game very often. That would be disastrous for the Bobs, and given that news, I have difficulty envisioning they can cover a large spread.
The loss of Mahdi in the backfield is also huge given the fact that he ran for nearly 1,000 yards and chipped in 195 receiving yards with six all-purpose touchdowns.
Texas State vs North Texas Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas State and North Texas match up statistically:
North Texas Offense vs. Texas State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 113 | 15 | |
| Line Yards | 112 | 44 | |
| Pass Success | 39 | 40 |  |
| Havoc | 48 | 38 | |
| Finishing Drives | 68 | 36 | |
| Quality Drives | 84 | 65 | |
Texas State Offense vs. North Texas Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 18 | 108 | |
| Line Yards | 14 | 109 | |
| Pass Success | 13 | 92 | |
| Havoc | 39 | 131 | |
| Finishing Drives | 71 | 95 | |
| Quality Drives | 47 | 108 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 70 | 94 |
| PFF Coverage | 113 | 106 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 87 | 94 |
| Middle 8 | 65 | 95 |
| Seconds per Play | 22.2 (4) | 25.1 (35) |
| Rush Rate | 41% (124) | 55% (52) |
How to Bet My North Texas vs Texas State Pick
It’s so tough for me to lay points with Texas State here, even with all of the offensive players out for North Texas.
With that said, I think the best betting approach in the matchup is the under. I never would’ve thought I'd be interested in taking an under between North Texas and Texas State, but here we are.
The Texas State defense was vastly underrated throughout the regular season. It ranked in the top 40 in Rush Success Rate allowed, Pass Success Rate allowed, Defensive Line Yards, Havoc allowed and Defensive Finishing Drives.
Given the fact that North Texas can't run the ball at all, I think the Mean Green are going to struggle mightily to move the ball without Morris.
On the offensive side of the ball for Texas State, I can't trust its offense for the whole game with McCloud not slated to play the entire game.
I don't care how bad the North Texas defense was throughout the regular season — to me, all of the Bobcats' excellent offensive numbers go out the window.
Both of these offenses typically love to go uptempo, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them slow things down, given that they won't be at full strength on that side of the ball.
I definitely wouldn't trust the over, especially with North Texas‘ offense being a complete question mark. It’s the under all the way for me.
Pick: Under 61.5 (Play to 58.5)
North Texas vs Texas State Channel, How to Watch, Streaming, Location
| Location: | Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Friday, Jan. 3 |
| Kickoff Time: | 4 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
North Texas meets Texas State in the First Responder Bowl on Friday, Jan. 3 at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN.
