The North Texas Mean Green will play the Texas Tech Red Raiders in an in-state matchup on Saturday afternoon. The game will be broadcast at 12 p.m. ET on FS1 in Lubbock, Texas.
The Red Raiders are 9.5-point favorites over North Texas in a game with an over/under of 69 points (-112/-108, DraftKings). Will the Mean Green be able to take home the victory against their in-state brethren, or can Texas Tech rebound from last week’s loss?
Let’s look at my North Texas vs. Texas Tech prediction and best bet for Saturday, September 14.
North Texas vs. Texas Tech Prediction for College Football Week 3
Neither of these teams plays great defense and will both be moving at breakneck speed. Even at 69 points, give me the over in this offensive showdown.
My Pick: Over 71.5 or Better
North Texas vs. Texas Tech Odds, Lines, Spread
| North Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+10.5 -105 | 69 -110o / -110u | +285 |
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-10.5 -115 | 69 -110o / -110u | -365 |
- Point Spread: North Texas +10.5 | Texas Tech -10.5
- Total: Over/Under 69 Points
- Moneyline: North Texas ML +285 | ML Texas Tech -365
North Texas Football vs. Texas Tech Football Preview
North Texas Mean Green Betting Preview
Through two games this season, the North Texas offense has looked solid. They currently pass the ball at the fifth-highest rate in FBS and rank 29th in EPA per play and 23rd in passing Success Rate.
At quarterback is TCU transfer Chandler Morris, who is averaging 0.31 EPA per dropback and has seven touchdowns to three interceptions. Morris has already attempted 85 passes for 645 yards this season.
The Mean Green posted a 95th percentile offensive success rate and 95th percentile EPA per Play in their lone FBS game against South Alabama, a 52-38 victory. Against Stephen F. Austin, North Texas won 35-20 and averaged 8.21 yards per play but had just a 34th-percentile offensive Success Rate.
This is the second season in Denton for this coaching staff. Eric Morris came over from being head coach at Incarnate Word at the FCS level, where he was known for his high-powered offense. This carried over to last season, where the Mean Green had the #27 offense, according to SP+ and the #133 defense.
This defense has not shown any signs of improvement to this point. South Alabama posted a 94th-percentile offensive Success Rate and 95th-percentile EPA per Play against this unit. They were able to completely shut down Stephen F. Austin, but I wouldn’t take too much from this FCS game.
Texas Tech Red Raiders Betting Preview
The Red Raiders are coming off of a brutal road loss at Washington State. The Cougars are probably a team that Texas Tech should be on a similar level with; instead, the Red Raiders were run off the field by a score of 37-16.
Texas Tech put up just a 34th-percentile offensive Success Rate and 22nd-percentile EPA per Play in this game against a defense ranked 75th by SP+ last season. Week 1 may have been just as embarrassing, as the Red Raiders could only squeak out a one-point victory against in-state FCS foe Abilene Christian.
Abilene had a 93rd-percentile offensive Success Rate and 97th-percentile EPA per Play in this game. Texas Tech answered with a good offensive game of its own, as it should against an opponent of that caliber. Still, this offense that returns nine starters left us wanting more from last weekend’s loss.
The Texas Tech defense returns just five starters from a unit that ranked 49th in SP+ a season ago. The Red Raiders lost seven of their top 10 tacklers from last season, including most of their secondary.
<span >How to Bet North Texas vs. Texas Tech</span>
This should be a fast-paced game, as North Texas ranks 23rd in seconds per play while Texas Tech is fifth. Last season, the Mean Green ranked seventh in seconds per play, and Texas Tech was the 15th-fastest team.
I’m not the world’s biggest Chandler Morris fan, but Eric Morris can coach an offense, and this squad has put up plenty of points over the first couple of weeks.
Playing against a Texas Tech defense with an inexperienced secondary that has shown signs of weakness already this season, I think North Texas will be able to put points on the board in this matchup with no issues.
On the other hand, North Texas’ defense is brutally bad and doesn’t look to be improved in the slightest. Texas Tech struggled with Washington State last weekend, but the Mean Green should provide a soft matchup for quarterback Behren Morton and company to get back on track.
Although the total is already 69, I think we could see this game fly over the total. Neither of these teams plays great defense, and they will both be moving at breakneck speed. Even at 69 points, give me the over in this shootout.
Pick: Over 71.5 or Better
Start Time & <span >How to Watch North Texas vs. Texas Tech</span>
| Location: | Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 14 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FS1 |
College Football Weather: Texas Tech-North Texas Forecast
