It's Friday Night Lights in Texas in what should be a high-scoring affair when the North Texas Mean Green (5-4, 2-3) travel to San Antonio, Texas, to take on the UTSA Roadrunners (4-5, 2-3). Friday's kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Both teams have had disappointing seasons, but what's unique about the matchup is that their strengths are opposites.
Oddsmakers have the Mean Green as a -2 road favorite with a robust total set at 72.5.
Who doesn't love a classic offensive slugfest on a Friday night in Texas? Let's dive into my North Texas vs. UTSA predictions and college football picks for Friday, Nov. 15.
North Texas vs UTSA Prediction
- North Texas vs. UTSA Pick: North Texas -1
My UTSA vs. North Texas best bet is on the Mean Green to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
North Texas vs UTSA Odds
| North Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 72.5 -110 / -110 | -115 |
| UTSA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 72.5 -110 / -110 | -105 |
- North Texas vs UTSA Spread: North Texas -1 (-110) · UTSA +1 (-110)
- North Texas vs UTSA Over/Under: 72.5 Points
- North Texas vs UTSA Moneyline: North Texas -115 · UTSA -105
North Texas vs UTSA Preview
North Texas Mean Green Betting Preview: In Need of Red-Zone Regression
I wasn't happy with North Texas over the weekend, as it consistently vomited all over itself in the red zone. I'm sure the loyal listeners of the "Big Bets on Campus" Podcast heard me work over quarterback Chandler Morris' pathetic effort, as it was a game UNT easily should have won.
The officiating did not do the Mean Green any favors, as a few game-changing calls by the zebras impacted the game's outcome. Despite all that nonsense, Army had zero business winning that matchup.
If you've been backing the Mean Green, this was the second game in recent weeks in which they brought you inside the torture chamber. I felt like Sonny Corleone during the toll booth scene in "The Godfather."
Anyway, this is a plus matchup for the Mean Green passing attack. Although they looked awful on the goal line last week, they still consistently moved the ball down the field.
North Texas ranks 36th in Pass Success Rate and 22nd in EPA/Pass. It's an elite passing team and thrives with constant explosive plays.
It's no picnic going up against an elite UTSA defensive trench, but the Roadrunners are vulnerable in the back end.
The one area of concern is the UTSA defensive line causing a lot of Havoc, but the Mean Green's offensive line does an excellent job at limiting it.
North Texas is one-dimensional; it doesn't even try to pretend it isn't. UNT runs the ball just 40% of the time, which is the strength of the UTSA defense.
As strong as the Roadrunners' defensive line has been, they're outside the top 90 in Finishing Drives allowed. Unless Morris decides to mimic last weekend's performance, I expect the aerial attack to explode for many points here.
The defense is putrid, though. The Mean Green sit outside the top 100 in most defensive metrics, including Havoc and Pass Success Rate allowed.
UTSA Roadrunners Betting Preview: Glory Days Behind the Roadrunners
It's been a strange season in San Antonio, as the UTSA program has risen over the last several years under head coach Jeff Traylor. They've become America's gambling darlings, but a 4-5 start to the season was not on many people's bingo cards.
The glory days of quarterback Frank Harris and running back Sincere McCormick are in the rearview mirror, leading to the Owen McCown show.
McCown has 20 touchdown passes and four interceptions and draws a juicy matchup here.
The Mean Green defense unit only gets a few stops against competent offenses, and I expect few here despite the Roadrunners' underwhelming metrics.
The defensive front has been imposing. UTSA ranks in the top five in Rush Success Rate allowed and Havoc, and leads the nation in Defensive Line Yards.
The secondary has been destroyed by opposing passing attacks all season long. In fact, this is one of the nation's worst defenses at preventing pass explosives. That's a horrific area to struggle in against the Mean Green, and I expect them to be catching their breath the majority of the afternoon.
It will be a good test against a solid offensive line for the defensive front, and the offense will get a boost. But I can't back the home 'dog here, especially with the uncertainties in the back end of the defense.
North Texas vs UTSA Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how North Texas and UTSA match up statistically:
North Texas Offense vs. UTSA Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 110 | 3 | |
| Line Yards | 121 | 1 | |
| Pass Success | 36 | 107 | |
| Havoc | 48 | 3 | |
| Finishing Drives | 44 | 99 | |
| Quality Drives | 64 | 75 | |
UTSA Offense vs. North Texas Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 127 | 106 | |
| Line Yards | 101 | 106 | |
| Pass Success | 92 | 101 | |
| Havoc | 69 | 127 | |
| Finishing Drives | 110 | 91 | |
| Quality Drives | 124 | 108 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 81 | 98 |
| PFF Coverage | 112 | 115 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 37 | 69 |
| Middle 8 | 21 | 45 |
| Seconds per Play | 22.4 (5) | 23.9 (15) |
| Rush Rate | 40% (129) | 48% (100) |
North Texas vs UTSA Pick & Prediction
I'm begging for misery now, but I must take North Texas here. As much as I was disgusted with its performance against Army, it's primed to bounce back in a big way here.
It might seem it's overwhelmed by UTSA's defense at first glance, but after digging into the secondary metrics, you realize how prone the Roadrunners have been to allowing big plays. Morris loves to sling the rock, whether to the opposite team or not.
I have concerns about the Mean Green defense, but I have enough faith in Morris to outduel the Meep Meep offense.
North Texas will find another way to torture me, so stay tuned for next week's recap, where I convince myself again to take it against East Carolina.
Pick: North Texas -1 (Play to -2)
North Texas vs UTSA Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Alamodome, San Antonio, TX |
| Date: | Friday, Nov. 15 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
North Texas heads to San Antonio on Friday to face UTSA at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
North Texas vs UTSA Betting Trends
- 61% of bets and 86% of the money are on North Texas to cover the spread
- 40% of bets and 97% of the money on the moneyline are on UTSA to win outright
- 62% of bets and 77% of the money are on the under
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
North Texas vs UTSA Weather
