Northern Illinois (3-2) takes on Bowling Green (2-3) on Saturday, Oct. 12 in a critical MAC game for both teams.
The game kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET and can be seen live on ESPN+. The Falcons are slight 2.5-point favorites in the contest, with a total posted at 47.5.
Read further for my Northern Illinois vs. Bowling Green predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 12.
Northern Illinois Huskies vs Bowling Green Falcons Prediction
- Northern Illinois vs Bowling Green Pick: Bowling Green -2.5
My Bowling Green vs Northern Illinois best bet is on the Falcons to cover, with the best line currently available at Caesars, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Northern Illinois vs Bowling Green Odds, Betting Line, Spread
| N. Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -108 | 46.5 -108o / -112u | +120 |
| Bowling Green Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -112 | 46.5 -108o / -112u | -142 |
- Northern Illinois vs Bowling Green Spread: Bowling Green -2.5
- Northern Illinois vs Bowling Green Over/Under: 48 Points
- Northern Illinois vs Bowling Green Moneyline: Northern Illinois ML +120 · Bowling Green ML -142
Northern Illinois Football vs Bowling Green Football Preview
Northern Illinois Huskies Betting Preview: Underwhelming Since Week 2
Northern Illinois comes into this game off of a home win last week against UMass.
The Huskies won the game by 14 points but really struggled with UMass, which led the game at the half.
NIU pulled away in the fourth quarter with three touchdowns. We saw the Huskies run the ball on 84% of their offensive snaps for 368 yards with a 7.1 yards per carry average.
This was impressive, considering stud running back Antario Brown left the game with an injury and was not a factor in the second half. Quarterback Ethan Hampton went 5-of-9 for 34 yards against the Minutemen.
The last three games following the major upset of Notre Dame have seen NIU play underwhelming football with this sluggish win and a pair of losses against Buffalo and NC State.
Bowling Green Falcons Betting Preview: Playing Down to Competition
Bowling Green is coming off a MAC road win over Akron last week in a game the Falcons could never really gain firm control of.
BGSU took the lead late in the first half on a Jaison Patterson touchdown run and extended it on the first play of the fourth quarter with a field goal. Akron then tied the game with a pair of scores in the fourth quarter.
Luckily for the Falcons, do-it-all tight end Harold Fannin Jr. found the end zone late to give Bowling Green the win.
This was the second straight game Bowling Green has really struggled following two really solid road performances at Penn State and Texas A&M.
The Falcons were very impressive playing up in competition before sleepwalking through a couple of games against lesser foes, and I would expect them to look sharp in this contest.
Bowling Green vs Northern Illinois Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Bowling Green and Northern Illinois match up statistically:
Northern Illinois Offense vs. Bowling Green Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 25 | 83 | |
| Line Yards | 13 | 131 | |
| Pass Success | 64 | 57 | |
| Havoc | 86 | 120 | |
| Finishing Drives | 89 | 67 | |
| Quality Drives | 18 | 101 | |
Bowling Green Offense vs. Northern Illinois Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 80 | 27 | |
| Line Yards | 70 | 53 | |
| Pass Success | 40 | 29 | |
| Havoc | 88 | 27 | |
| Finishing Drives | 51 | 63 | |
| Quality Drives | 27 | 49 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 38 | 64 |
| PFF Coverage | 42 | 95 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 125 | 41 |
| Middle 8 | 11 | 30 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.4 (90) | 27.3 (65) |
| Rush Rate | 63% (7) | 48% (102) |
How to Bet My Northern Illinois vs Bowling Green Pick
I played Bowling Green against the spread -2.5 on Saturday.
Bowling Green needed to see growth and maturation from quarterback Connor Bazelak in the offseason, and he has not been the reason for the last few mediocre Falcon performances.
Bazelak has completed 78% of his passes in the last two weeks for 571 yards. Sacks and negative plays have really stalled promising BGSU scoring drives. Northern Illinois ranks just 80th in Defensive Havoc, so I'll look for Bowling Green to have a clean pocket for Bazelak to read the defense and make accurate throws to extend drives.
Fannin should have a massive receiving day. In the last two games, he's hauled in 21 receptions for 227 yards and two scores and should be a difference-maker against an NIU defense that's just 78th nationally in Defensive Passing Success Rate and 92nd in defensive pass explosiveness allowed.
Bowling Green is also 15th nationally in offensive explosion, and NIU has been susceptible to giving up big plays.
Northern Illinois has been reliant on the run this year offensively, as 64% of its snaps have seen them keep the ball on the ground. The Huskies have been methodical on offense with very little explosiveness and solid execution on third down.
NIU ranks just only 120th nationally in rush play explosiveness and 116th in pass play explosiveness. It's a concern when backing a team on the road that struggles to achieve chunk plays and spends so much time in third-down situations. That's important because BGSU's third-down defense has been tremendous of late, holding teams to 17-of-51 on money downs.
Bowling Green has faced the 10th-fewest rushing plays, so this will be a really good indicator of where its front seven is from a run-defense standpoint. Brown is banged up, although the reports this week are that he's going to play in this game.
Bowling Green was my preseason pick to win the MAC, and with the Falcons being at home, I can safely rely on their offense to make plays against the NIU defense when they need it.
This should be a really fun game with significant conference implications. I will take the team with the better quarterback and more explosive playmakers to pick up the win and cover the number.
Pick: Bowling Green -2.5
Northern Illinois vs Bowling Green Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Doyt L. Perry Stadium, Bowling Green, OH |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 12 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN+ |
Bowling Green vs Northern Illinois Betting Trends
Northern Illinois vs Bowling Green Weather
